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at the end of "15 days to stop the spread" is when obviously the Task Force showed the POTUS the projections that said "1 to 2 MM dead if we don't shut down and get serious about social distancing". Apparently, that same model showed 100-200K if we "did everything right". That same day, while the optimist in all of us concentrated on the low mark, Birx/Fauci (I think B, not sure) said something like "we hope under 200K".
They're all just projections and models. Remember needing 150K ventilators? A model (the same?) then came out maybe a week later with "60K dead". Now a model says "400K dead by end of year". It sure seems to reveal that we really know LESS about the virus than we might.
If one wanted to speculate on a "2nd wave", then I think you put FL front and center.
People seem to expect a higher degree of certainty and accuracy than would be objectively possible from the Birx and Fauci set.
There have been 3 beta coronaviruses to jump to humans; SARS, MERS, and COVID19. It ain't like a flu season where we have a century of research, history, and data to back things up.
People seem to expect a higher degree of certainty and accuracy than would be objectively possible from the Birx and Fauci set.
There have been 3 beta coronaviruses to jump to humans; SARS, MERS, and COVID19. It ain't like a flu season where we have a century of research, history, and data to back things up.
Agreed. And to take it further, this is why the death rate is dropping. The Practice of Medicine (as my mom, who worked in the industry for 30 years used to say, there's a reason they call it that) has learned a few things to put in their toolkit since March.
I don't expect certainty, but how many folks give us a "they promised!" or whatever?
Unfortunately, politically, we can't even agree on what to agree on, and address that. So, instead of overall certainty, I expect the experts to hammer home when we DO have high degrees of certainty on various aspects.
For example, I'm seeing "6 ft for 15 minutes" more and more. But it just kind of appeared and has spread.
1. Seniors and significantly compromised health folks are most at risk, by far.
2. Lack of space indoors (which really is more specifically air volume/ventilation) increases risk.
3. If you live with someone in 1, then you need to be extra careful about exposing them when you get home.
I don't really know the logistics but I would think it would be feasible to keep county schools, but divide the county into districts. I think WCPSS is extremely inefficient due to its size - we see it when it comes to weather days, Covid, and many other things. The county is just too big geographically. With the Covid example, I believe the vast majority of cases in Wake are east of downtown Raleigh. Looking at re-opening schools in Cary versus East Raleigh is much different - not only due to the number of Covid cases, but also due to demographics.
How do you think the demographics would factor in? Based on what's happening in Chapel Hill and elsewhere, I wouldn't assume low case numbers would mean re-opening would be any more likely if Western Wake/Cary area was it's own district, particularly given the demographics of the area. It's a lot like Chapel Hill in that regard, and we were one of the first to decide to close based at least in part due to parental pressure and are currently slated to be the last to reopen if all goes as planned. Many people here have quite a bit of resources and have high achieving children, so remote learning is more manageable for them. Some even seem to making the best of it and are doing remote school from various locations like the Virgin Islands.
What is the cause of death in younger healthy people due to COVID-19 who have no big past medical history? You guys who think the virus is exaggerated don't have an answer for that. All you keep blaming are the "high-risk" populations.
"HOUSTON, Texas -- A Houston doctor who was diagnosed with COVID-19 this summer has died, according to her family.
Dr. Adeline Fagan, 28, was starting her second year of residency in Houston as an OB/GYN when she got sick in July."
It's terrible that someone like Dr. Fagan, with her life in front of her and a desire, dedication and willingness to help people had to get sick and die due to Covid. However, per the CNN article about her, she was high risk.
Despite a history of asthma, upper respiratory infections and pneumonia, her sisters shared with TV station KHOU, going into work was "what (Adeline) wants to be doing."
How do you think the demographics would factor in? Based on what's happening in Chapel Hill and elsewhere, I wouldn't assume low case numbers would mean re-opening would be any more likely if Western Wake/Cary area was it's own district, particularly given the demographics of the area. It's a lot like Chapel Hill in that regard, and we were one of the first to decide to close based at least in part due to parental pressure and are currently slated to be the last to reopen if all goes as planned. Many people here have quite a bit of resources and have high achieving children, so remote learning is more manageable for them. Some even seem to making the best of it and are doing remote school from various locations like the Virgin Islands.
I understand what you're saying. The lower income areas would want schools to open since their jobs are more likely to require them to be away from the house, and they may not be able to afford care. The higher income areas are the opposite, since more parents are able to stay at home and assist with remote learning. Ironically it's the lower income areas that have more Covid, and higher income areas that have less.
The issue is, we don't localize Covid stats - we use state stats for metrics, and we really have no useful stats below the county level. So for example, it's probably extremely safe to open schools in Cary/Apex right now, but maybe not as safe in East Raleigh or Knightdale. But all we see on the news is statewide doom and gloom, so even those in the lesser-impacted areas many parents don't feel safe opening schools back up. Again, it all comes down to anxiety, and the fact that the majority of the population doesn't really understand the reality of Covid in their specific area.
I agree though, smaller districts wouldn't necessarily solve that problem. There would still be economic disparity in the districts.
m378 and ITB_OG, I am going to start a new thread soonish on the topic if you guys want to enter a holding pattern for a bit. Not trying to play mod. Just trying to respect the topics and I started this sidebar in the wrong place.
m378 and ITB_OG, I am going to start a new thread soonish on the topic if you guys want to enter a holding pattern for a bit. Not trying to play mod. Just trying to respect the topics and I started this sidebar in the wrong place.
Sure, no problem although I think we were keeping it COVID in the Triangle related.
m378 and ITB_OG, I am going to start a new thread soonish on the topic if you guys want to enter a holding pattern for a bit. Not trying to play mod. Just trying to respect the topics and I started this sidebar in the wrong place.
From my experience with Wake Co. and Chapel Hill systems, I think county and city systems both have pros and cons. I have not found that the smaller city based district is overall superior. Actually, I’ve found we have pretty limited choices and little flexibility because of the small size. The current circumstances have really exacerbated already existing inequities here.
I agree there are pros and cons. No system will be the best system for everyone. Maybe a hybrid system would be the best.
Edit: Sorry. Just noticed the request to table this conversation here and wait for the new C-school thread. My bad.
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