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Maybe you should read the OP again. The OP attacked realtors in his post, accusing them of causing the housing proplem What does his attack on Realtors have to do with his question "When will housing bottom".
You should talk to him about that.
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During the boom, realtors were not having to use slogans like you are describing. The buyers were coming out of the woodwork begging them to find a house. Realtors were having to find sellers willing to accept offers they couldn't refuse from buyers who didn't want to be "left out". That was buyer -would-be-investor greed and had nothing to do with realtors.
I guess the NAR isn't representing agents anymore?
Third-Quarter Metro Home Prices & State Sales Confirm Market Transition (http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2006/mhp_2006q3_sales_confirm_market_transition - broken link)
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NAR President Pat Vredevoogd Combs, of Grand Rapids, Mich., and vice president of Coldwell Banker-AJS-Schmidt, said the market transition is good news for home buyers. "With the supply of homes at the highest level in over a decade and historically low mortgage interest rates, it's become a great time to buy a home," said Combs. "This window of opportunity will continue into the new year, but inventories are starting to decline and sellers will be less willing to negotiate when conditions begin to balance in most areas around early spring."
In other words, buy now, prices are going up if you don't hurry.
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My position, since you didn't seem to understand it, is that a bottom will be extemely difficult to determine.
I was responding to your specific claims about your market, that's all. I just wanted to see if you had more specific data about your area, since other independent sources contradicted your claims of an improved market
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The bottom will not be much different. There will be signs and most people will not see them. Some will see them and ignore them. A few will recognize them they will begin buying. They will have the cream of the crop choices. They will pay more for the properties than if they buy at the bottom, but then again, how will they know the bottom has been reached until the prices have risen again?
Probably when inventory starts to return to normal levels, instead of increasing at double digit per year paces. And it likely won't matter - as you know, previous RE bottoms have been long and flat, not sharp immediate upturns.
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I believe this is information that people should know. The more information they have, the better buying decisions they can make.
Yep, I agree. That's why I asked and got shut down when asking for a bit more data to try to get a better picture of your market. You're using vague comparisons of December versus April months of inventory numbers, but that's made of so many moving parts it's impossible to tell what's going on.
If you're really trying to be impartial, I don't see a problem discussing the verifiable data for your area. Since you aren't, I have to end up using other sources. Those paint a pretty concrete picture that things are still bad to worse in the Phoenix metro area.
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From your statements I gather that you are renting now and waiting until you feel the bottom has been reached, and then will buy.
Nice veiled "bitter renter" allusion, but wrong. You're correct to try to avoid speculating. I'm able to see what's going on in the market even if my conclusions are that I'm going to be hurt by them as well - I'm not so conceited to think that anything I say will make a difference to the macro.
But it's interesting that you immediately jump to the conclusion that I'm spinning the data for my financial gain. Maybe it has to do with the environment you're familiar with, but where I work, that's a good way to lose a job.
No way min wage will support 800 dollar mortgage payment. It might be possible with both spouses working and no kids but very hard. It also might be possible with public transportation and no car payments or expensive gas. Also, forget eating out. I just don't see that working.
And for the record, I believe owning is better long term for most folks, though obviously not if you move every few years.
For those upset with me trashing most realtors feel free to DM me.
You were trying to pidgeon hole the discussion by saying that only the question could be discussed. I was merely pointing out that the OP opened the discussion up to a plethora of issues including attacking realtors, the maket in Tokyo, ad infinitum.
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I guess the NAR isn't representing agents anymore?
Third-Quarter Metro Home Prices & State Sales Confirm Market Transition (http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2006/mhp_2006q3_sales_confirm_market_transition - broken link)
In other words, buy now, prices are going up if you don't hurry.
You made your accusation against "agents" not the NAR.
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But this does sound suspiciously similar to "buy now or be priced out forever" arguments used by agents during the bubble,
You said that "agents" were making this statement, when it was not the agents, it was the NAR. The NAR speaks for the NAR, not for the agents, so you should be specific when you make a quote so that it's attributed to the correct source.
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I was responding to your specific claims about your market, that's all. I just wanted to see if you had more specific data about your area, since other independent sources contradicted your claims of an improved market
You were attacking the facts that I posted based on what I did not post, just as you did the article. I posted statistics from January through April 30, which can not be contradicted, unless you think that Broker Metrics was publishing false information. If that is your argument, then contact Broker Metrics.
I didn't "claim" an improved market. Again, I posted what was happening during the 4 month period, and stated what I was seeing. I also said that I didn't know if that trend would continue, but it is important to watch for trends.
I'm still seeing more buyers come out, and my associate who deals in REO's is getting multiple offers on everyone that he lists, including the one that I bought. We see many REO mls sheets now that say offers will not be responded to for 10 days. That is so they can accumulate the multiple offers and accept, or negotiate, the best one(s).
You posted that the decline from 19 to 8 months inventory in 4 months didn't mean anything other than it was better than nothing. To me it's significant, but it's ok if you don't think it means anything.
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Probably when inventory starts to return to normal levels, instead of increasing at double digit per year paces. And it likely won't matter - as you know, previous RE bottoms have been long and flat, not sharp immediate upturns.
And how is one going to determine what is happening to the inventory, other than watching the numbers on a mothly basis, and as a realtor, watching and listening to the buyers in the field?
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Yep, I agree. That's why I asked and got shut down when asking for a bit more data to try to get a better picture of your market. You're using vague comparisons of December versus April months of inventory numbers, but that's made of so many moving parts it's impossible to tell what's going on.
I'm looking at what is happening now, and if you feel it's vague, then so be it. There are many sources for information that you can go to in order to gather more information if you need it. I pay for statistical information from three sources and since you come off with your attitude and attack on factual information that I posted, I don't feel any desire, or need, to go and do your research for you. As I've said before, if what I post isn't sufficient for you, then you are quite capable of doing your own research.
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If you're really trying to be impartial, I don't see a problem discussing the verifiable data for your area. Since you aren't, I have to end up using other sources. Those paint a pretty concrete picture that things are still bad to worse in the Phoenix metro area.
That's exactly what you should do.
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But it's interesting that you immediately jump to the conclusion that I'm spinning the data for my financial gain. Maybe it has to do with the environment you're familiar with, but where I work, that's a good way to lose a job.
So it's ok for you to say that agents spin data for financial gain, but agents shouldn't dare to say that someone else would do such a thing. Interesting.
As far as the environment, it is the environment of City Data where I continuously read posters accusing agents of spinning data for their own gain.
I'm going to let you have the last word, and I'm finished with this conversation. So have at it, and I won't be responding.
You made your accusation against "agents" not the NAR.
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Pat Vredevoogd Combs, of Grand Rapids, Mich., and vice president of Coldwell Banker-AJS-Schmidt
So Pat's a vice president of a real estate firm and was head of the largest agents' organization in the nation, but not an agent? Come on, get serious.
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You were attacking the facts that I posted based on what I did not post, just as you did the article.
I'm not attacking the facts - I think you've accurately posted them. But you know that, because you also said this
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You posted that the decline from 19 to 8 months inventory in 4 months didn't mean anything other than it was better than nothing. To me it's significant, but it's ok if you don't think it means anything.
I'd just like to see you incorporate this particular bit of data and comment on how it fits into the overall trend in your area. For some reason you don't want to do that and instead attack anyone who questions you about it. I think that reaction says volumes about the actual trend in your area, but that's just me.
And I don't see how you thinking that this is significant fits in with this claim -
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I didn't "claim" an improved market. Again, I posted what was happening during the 4 month period, and stated what I was seeing. I also said that I didn't know if that trend would continue, but it is important to watch for trends.
So the market isn't improved. Is it now worse since the time on the market has gone down? Is the market unchanged even thought the change you highlighted is "significant"? Can't you see how one might be confused as to what you're saying? On the one hand the data is significant, on the other hand you're not claiming it says anything about the direction of the market.
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And how is one going to determine what is happening to the inventory, other than watching the numbers on a mothly basis
Then why are you so defensive when someone wants to discuss the trend in absolute inventory numbers year-over-year?
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So it's ok for you to say that agents spin data for financial gain, but agents shouldn't dare to say that someone else would do such a thing. Interesting.
I've shown that some agents are presenting an incomplete picture of the data, making it seem way more positive than it is. I've shown you where agents attempt to use fear to get people to buy. I've shown where shills for RE-heavy hedge funds play with words to attempt to sway the market in a major newspaper. I don't think I've mentioned any potential motives for agents to do this.
You've done nothing but guess (incorrectly) as to what my situation and motives are. Until you're willing to back up your claims that I'm trying to spin the market so I can move out of my rental, you can't compare the two at all. One's pointing out specific instances of behavior that may or may not be a trend, the other is just outright lying and slander to try to discredit someone presenting facts you can't otherwise argue with.
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I'm going to let you have the last word, and I'm finished with this conversation. So have at it, and I won't be responding.
This is typical. Can't respond with facts so you try accusations of me lying. I guess when the data's bad it's a good tactic to attack the messenger and try to distract from the data. But then you can't even back up those personal attacks, you take your ball and go home. I'm not sure that lying about people and then running away is the best way to convince us that agents are honest, but if it makes you feel good, have at it.
So Pat's a vice president of a real estate firm and was head of the largest agents' organization in the nation, but not an agent? Come on, get serious.
I'm not attacking the facts - I think you've accurately posted them. But you know that, because you also said this
I'd just like to see you incorporate this particular bit of data and comment on how it fits into the overall trend in your area. For some reason you don't want to do that and instead attack anyone who questions you about it. I think that reaction says volumes about the actual trend in your area, but that's just me.
And I don't see how you thinking that this is significant fits in with this claim -
So the market isn't improved. Is it now worse since the time on the market has gone down? Is the market unchanged even thought the change you highlighted is "significant"? Can't you see how one might be confused as to what you're saying? On the one hand the data is significant, on the other hand you're not claiming it says anything about the direction of the market.
Then why are you so defensive when someone wants to discuss the trend in absolute inventory numbers year-over-year?
I've shown that some agents are presenting an incomplete picture of the data, making it seem way more positive than it is. I've shown you where agents attempt to use fear to get people to buy. I've shown where shills for RE-heavy hedge funds play with words to attempt to sway the market in a major newspaper. I don't think I've mentioned any potential motives for agents to do this.
You've done nothing but guess (incorrectly) as to what my situation and motives are. Until you're willing to back up your claims that I'm trying to spin the market so I can move out of my rental, you can't compare the two at all. One's pointing out specific instances of behavior that may or may not be a trend, the other is just outright lying and slander to try to discredit someone presenting facts you can't otherwise argue with.
This is typical. Can't respond with facts so you try accusations of me lying. I guess when the data's bad it's a good tactic to attack the messenger and try to distract from the data. But then you can't even back up those personal attacks, you take your ball and go home. I'm not sure that lying about people and then running away is the best way to convince us that agents are honest, but if it makes you feel good, have at it.
KC, don't even waste your breath. When I pointed out historicals and how out of whack (home value to income ratios) they were/are in the Phoenix market, CB dismissed it and "didn't buy" my argument. I would think even the more biased realtors buy and understand the historical / home value to income ratios.....he does not. His response also was that potential home buyers today should work two or more jobs to "afford" the homes today. I understand you need to save to buy a home, but don'cha think a >100% rise in home prices in 4-6 years made things a little out of whack? LOL...
6 months ago with the credit crunch getting worse, foreclosures going through the roof, & inventory / pricing sky high, he wouldn't acknowledge that things were going to get worse before they get better. You had to be blind not to see or understand where things were going especially in the Phoenix market. When I pointed this out, all I got was "you price for today, not 4-6 months down the road"....
Now he hides from the NAR when a member makes a rediculous comment saying they "don't speak for agents"....LOL, who do they speak for then? The Boogeyman? what a joke....
You are, at this point beating a dead horse KC. The markets in Phoenix and Las Vegas have turned on volume and will pretty quickly turn on price. I will talk to Vegas which I follow closely but from other conversations Phoenix is on the same track.
Basically the yoy volume last month turned and by about 30%. The SFR volume is increasing month over month at a rate of around 15 to 20%. Pendings continue to increase rapidly indicating the surge has a lot of wind left in it. The volume in May will be double that of December.
You will I am sure point out this volume is driven by REPOs...which is true. But so what? We are bascially eating all the well priced REPOs and driving volume up.
Price continues to slide but not for much longer. Basically the non-REPOs have come down in a much more orderly fashion. So we basically are running two markets REPOs and non REPOs with almost a 40K difference in median price. Initial May numbers show both up over last month. The month has a long way to go however and tends to drop in the month end surge.
So someplace this summer we are going to see flat price or even a slight increase. Now we are not going to run up or anything...but we are going to bottom on price.
So we are in the trough...no where to go but up. When will we see any real appreciation? No time soon. If, as I expect, the REPO volume stays high we are going to stay right where we are. But the volume increase is, in time, incompatible with falling prices...so a leveling...some months pass...and then some gentle increase. I expect that next spring may well be up year over year.
Olecap, this is what Ben Stein said on the Sat business news. He said that is will skip along on the bottom for a few months, maybe a year then start to slowly uptick at a more normal pace. You are both very wise men.
KC, don't even waste your breath. When I pointed out historicals and how out of whack (home value to income ratios) they were/are in the Phoenix market, CB dismissed it and "didn't buy" my argument. I would think even the more biased realtors buy and understand the historical / home value to income ratios.....he does not. His response also was that potential home buyers today should work two or more jobs to "afford" the homes today. I understand you need to save to buy a home, but don'cha think a >100% rise in home prices in 4-6 years made things a little out of whack? LOL...
6 months ago with the credit crunch getting worse, foreclosures going through the roof, & inventory / pricing sky high, he wouldn't acknowledge that things were going to get worse before they get better. You had to be blind not to see or understand where things were going especially in the Phoenix market. When I pointed this out, all I got was "you price for today, not 4-6 months down the road"....
Now he hides from the NAR when a member makes a rediculous comment saying they "don't speak for agents"....LOL, who do they speak for then? The Boogeyman? what a joke....
Your problem too Jack is that reality is interfering. The Vegas and Phoenix markets have bottomed and started well back up on volume. Next comes price. Soon. Greed is in the ascendancy...The continued availablity of REPOs will set the shape of the rise. If the lenders continue throwing them in at ever increasing volume the price will continue to drop though slowly. If the lenders start running short or get a little less liberal on price up she goes.
NAR has never claimed to represent "Agents" They claim to represent "RealtorsR"...a particular brand of agent. They pitch their better brand... In fact they represent MLSs and big brokerages. There is very little congruence between the needs of agents and the delivery of NAR.
NAR is also not very important to anything real. The RE industry is run and regulated at the state level. And there again it tends to be Realtor Board and big brokerage dominated. Nobody actually speaks for the agents.
These are all interesting comments. The Real Estate market and the stock market are very similiar. Buy low, sell high. This is the best time to buy if you are in the market and if you can remain in the property until the market recycles back to a sellers market which it will do as Real Estate like everything else runs on a cycle. Rates are relative low, look at the 10 year average. Inventories are still high and there are many options available.
Housing like buying stocks/investments was never meant to be a short term investment. If you do not plan to stay in your home for a minimum of 5-7 years you are not ready to buy yet. If you do need to sell at this time, keep in mind that while you may have to accept a lower price on your home you will also be paying a lower price on your new home. Have your Realtor do the math for you. The margin between what you are selling at and what you are buying at could very well be better now, than in a sellers market where everything is selling higher, but you also pay a much higher price for what you are buying.
Unfortunately if you wait until the market bottoms out, you will miss your opportunity. Typically we do not know we have actually reached the bottom until the market starts to go up, and by then it is too late.
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800 dollars per montn and min wage?
