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Unfortunately if you wait until the market bottoms out, you will miss your opportunity. Typically we do not know we have actually reached the bottom until the market starts to go up, and by then it is too late.
Ok, hold on, how is it too late? We are not going to see appreciation rates like we did during this last boom. The appreciation rates were higher than they had ever have been in all of recorded history. Now I agree that many of the best properties may have already been sold, but there will still be plenty of inventory and plenty of good values. The "by then it is too late" bull crap is irritating me and hearing my fellow agents spouting this is embarrassing. I think your logic is very poor and would appreciate it if you never say something even remotely similar to this again, because it is flat wrong.
Ok, hold on, how is it too late? We are not going to see appreciation rates like we did during this last boom. The appreciation rates were higher than they had ever have been in all of recorded history. Now I agree that many of the best properties may have already been sold, but there will still be plenty of inventory and plenty of good values. The "by then it is too late" bull crap is irritating me and hearing my fellow agents spouting this is embarrassing. I think your logic is very poor and would appreciate it if you never say something even remotely similar to this again, because it is flat wrong.
I tend toward your view...but can argue either way. What I told a person recently was it was close enough to the bottom to buy safely but that it was not going anywhere soon so if he wanted to wait until Fall and check again it would be OK. I suggested he watch the REPOs closely and consider buying if they start to move up sharply.
I do have one big concern. The REPOs which drive this market can be turned on or off or modutated on demand. That is their price can go up or even stop pricing below comps on the will of the lenders. And they may well have a fiduciary duty to the actual mortgage owner to do so if the market turns a little.
So the rise from the bottom may not be "free market". We may see, as we did going down, significant market manipulation by the lenders.
What will happen? Who knows. Might just stop...volume drops to half...might rise 5 or 10% in a reasonably short time. May get a feeding frenzy started where prices roll up for a while.
So you can wait but you better pay attention. This market can go off into some different direction real quick. It is not a stable situation and presuming any trend will hold very long is likely folly.
Your Realtor has access to information that you do not. What I was referring to in "do the math" was your Realtor, the professional you have decided to hire, to use the resources available to them to assist you in making the best possible decision. Again this comes down to one main issue, Trust. Hiring a professional that is trained in whatever the specific area you are looking at.
As far as being to late . . . . I was referring to buyers receiving larger than usual discounts on home values. As sellers are not able to sell their homes for the prices they expect they will pull their homes off of the market and inventory will go down. As inventory goes down, and people continue to need homes, competition will increase for those homes in the best condition in the best locations. By waiting to long to purchase these homes, the opportunity for that great deal may not exist as easily. Many buyers that were depending on 100% financing are already learning the error of their decisions as minimum credit scores have risen and 100% financing is very difficult to find.
In my market of Madison WI I am beginning to experience multiple offers on listings and listing periods of 30 days or less. In some of the more popular neighborhoods we are seeing only 2-3 weeks from listing to accepted offer. And the buyers are out there. My listings get a minimum of 7-8 showings per week.
The inventory there is building up just like it did in CA, FL, and AZ before. At least they're lucky to have a recent example and know exactly what is going on. We didn't... at least many of us didn't.
As far as being to late . . . . I was referring to buyers receiving larger than usual discounts on home values. As sellers are not able to sell their homes for the prices they expect they will pull their homes off of the market and inventory will go down. As inventory goes down, and people continue to need homes, competition will increase for those homes in the best condition in the best locations. .
Sue, in many markets on the way down,"now is a great time to buy" was shoved down our throats by realtors just like you and the NAR. If we listened to that message (like many did), you would've been hurt.
Inventory is still at RECORD levels, its still harder than ever to get financing, and interest rates won't be getting any lower or staying at these levels much longer....throw in the fact that foreclosures will still bring out more negativity the rest of the year w/many of those ARM's resetting....
What's to believe that things haven't bottomed out?
Quote:
Originally Posted by suestark
In my market of Madison WI I am beginning to experience multiple offers on listings and listing periods of 30 days or less. In some of the more popular neighborhoods we are seeing only 2-3 weeks from listing to accepted offer. And the buyers are out there. My listings get a minimum of 7-8 showings per week.
Sue, can you please cut the "rose colored" glass outlook for your market please? Your sales are down 30% YOY, inventory although not at 4Q'07 levels is still EXTREMELY high, and pendings are extremely low. No matter how you or the GMAR slice and dice it, your market stinks. Please don't try to put lipstick on a pig...we all see through it.
This is what drives me nuts about certain (not all) realtors who come on here. Avoid the hard data and post an anecdote here and there giving the perception that things are ok in their market....
I have no idea what markets you all are referring to when you are calling bottom but the Greater Washington D.C. market (including Northern VA and Maryland) is in shambles right now and continues to get worse each month. Sure there are knife-catchers out there, but that is all they are. Prices will continue to fall throughout the next 12 months at the very least. It is definitely not "safe" to buy in the D.C. region right now.
If only I could find my rose-colored glasses like the rest of you guys on here
Credit is tight, downpayment requirements are rising, housing prices are still beyond what incomes will bear, foreclosures are up greater than 100% since last year and rising, and there is greater than $1 TRILLION dollars of ARM resets coming before the end of this year... So how does this point to a "bottom" ?
CJ, what I've said in the past is that one who is selling or buying today should sell or buy at today's prices.
If one wishes to sell or buy at tomorrow's pricing, whatever that will be, then wait until tomorrow.
Recently I spelled out a pricing strategy that one should take if they need to sell fast, that naturally takes Condition into account, and that is to price at the bottom of the Actives, or the Solds, which ever is the driving factor. That is the same as my position has always been. It's still selling at today's pricing, albiet at the bottom of the price range. That's just common sense in a competitive market if one needs to sell fast, and I define fast as sooner than the Average DOM, with 30 days being the goal.
I've never forecast that the market will move up or down. I leave that to you and the NAR.
One of the differences in your position and mine, is that I believe, from the advice you've given, that you are fixed solely on price, My position is that one must take into account the Location, Condition, Competition, and other market factors, then determine the Price.
I believe your position comes from what you think housing prices should be, and my position is from what is best for my clients.
Regarding the NAR, I am a member of the NAR because it is necessary in my business. However, they do not speak for me and I do not speak for them. I do not defend them, nor do I berate them.
Along with what OleCapt discussed, I get a weekly graph update for single family homes, and each week it has been showing an improvement in the Phoenix market.
Along with the weekly graphs comes a brief statement, and here is the statement that was sent today:
[quote
active inventory came down by 146 listings from last week,
homes under contract climbed by 240 and
closed sales rose by 149.
[/quote]
There are many more statistics avaliable in one wishes to take their own time to look them up.
Regarding the best homes being bought first; one can call that agent fluffing if you wish, but can anyone imagine that people who are buying today are buying the worst houses? Of course not. They are buying the best homes in the best locations at the best prices. They are doing a lot of looking and scrutinizing, and they end up with the best. They're not selecting the homes that back up to the freeways, or streets, or close to railroad tracks, or other less desirable locations. They're leaving those because there are so many better choices available.
Sure there will be many homes left when the market turns around, and there will be others come on the market, but it won't be as easy to find the cream of the crop as it is now.
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