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Old 02-11-2009, 08:39 PM
 
Location: San Antonio North
4,147 posts, read 7,999,782 times
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Quote:
A survey by the housing market consulting firm Metrostudy says San Antonio is one of just two markets in the entire country with unsold home inventory at 'healthy' levels, 1200 WOAI news reports.

Metrostudy says a 'healthy' housing market has a 1.5 month to 2.5 month inventory of unsold homes. Only San Antonio and Baltimore are within that range.


"By virtue of the Texas economy maintaining the strongest major market economy in the United States at this time and for the past three to four years," said Travis Tullos, Chief Economist for the San Antonio Chamber of Commerce.
News Radio 1200 WOAI San Antonio Texas


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Old 02-12-2009, 06:18 AM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
8,399 posts, read 22,979,962 times
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Interesting! Thanks for posting that! I'd rep you, but I have to rep some others before I can rep you again!

Cheers! M2
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Old 02-12-2009, 07:40 AM
 
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Is this total home inventory, new or used? I have heard conflicting data. In fact, San Antonio's inventory from MLS is near record highs...

This link tracks the total inventory of homes according to MLS.

http://www.housingtracker.net/asking...as/SanAntonio/

This looks like more than 1.5 - 2.5 months of unsold inventory. While metrostudy is a reputable agency - you have to be careful what is presented by the media. They may be picking one segment out of the housing market and reporting that. The Media doesn't always show the entire picture.

Last edited by banker; 02-12-2009 at 07:52 AM..
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Old 02-12-2009, 07:47 AM
 
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Ok - the article goes on to state "The figures cover under construction, finished but vacant, and model homes, as well as townhomes, condominiums, and multi family units.

Tullos says new home construction in metro San Antonio is down 35% from highs seen in 2007, but he says the nationwide credit crunch is still depressing housing demand." They are talking about new construction.

Clearly the other link shows that are total inventory continues to rise. All the Metro Study data shows is that builders have done a better job of adjusting their production to meet demand here in San Antonio than in other parts of the country. Starts are still way down - so we are hardly ok.

This link shows over 14,000 homes currently on MLS...

http://www.housingtracker.net/asking...as/SanAntonio/

You should modify your thread title to reflect "New Home Housing Markets"

Last edited by banker; 02-12-2009 at 07:55 AM..
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Old 02-12-2009, 08:39 AM
 
Location: San Antonio North
4,147 posts, read 7,999,782 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by banker View Post
Ok - the article goes on to state "The figures cover under construction, finished but vacant, and model homes, as well as townhomes, condominiums, and multi family units.

Tullos says new home construction in metro San Antonio is down 35% from highs seen in 2007, but he says the nationwide credit crunch is still depressing housing demand." They are talking about new construction.

Clearly the other link shows that are total inventory continues to rise. All the Metro Study data shows is that builders have done a better job of adjusting their production to meet demand here in San Antonio than in other parts of the country. Starts are still way down - so we are hardly ok.

This link shows over 14,000 homes currently on MLS...

HousingTracker.net: Median Home Asking Price & Inventory Data for San Antonio, Texas

You should modify your thread title to reflect "New Home Housing Markets"
Ill keep it as is. The article conveys a strong market.

Wht are the builders only doing a good job at measuring the San Antonio and Baltimore market only? Seems like an opinion and not a fact.
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Old 02-12-2009, 11:33 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ryneone View Post
Ill keep it as is. The article conveys a strong market.

Wht are the builders only doing a good job at measuring the San Antonio and Baltimore market only? Seems like an opinion and not a fact.
You are exactly correct..."the article conveys a strong market." But the data released by the National Association of Realtors (below) which includes total home for sale and not just new construction gives facts that point to a different reality.

To you point though, the builders are doing a better job in San Antonio - and began curtailing production of new homes when the market began to go south two years ago. Since San Antonio's economy has stayed stronger longer...it has allowed the builders to get rid of their unsold inventory. Sadly, as the MLS data shows...houses on the market in San Antonio have jumped from 9,000 to over 14,000 during the down turn. This seems to point to a downturn in San Antonio.

HousingTracker.net: Median Home Asking Price & Inventory Data for San Antonio, Texas

Here is another link released today by the National Association of Realtors that shows a 5.5% decline in prices in San Antonio. The jump in inventory per MLS supports this figure.

Home price declines deepen - Feb. 12, 2009

The data here - collected from 153 metro areas - shows that San Antonio is in a four way tie for 60th best market...hardly what I would call one of the strongest housing markets. Just goes to show that you need to take all things into consideration. The Metro Study data only reports new construction - not total homes on the market in MLS.

Last edited by banker; 02-12-2009 at 12:00 PM..
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Old 02-12-2009, 01:57 PM
 
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Metrostudy has zero credibility. If they don't like the results, they change the data inputs, kinda like the government did with unemployment and inflation. Banker is 100% correct. Add existing inventory and that study is toilet paper.

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it. Upton Sinclair
US novelist & socialist politician (1878 - 1968)
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Old 02-12-2009, 05:32 PM
 
Location: San Antonio North
4,147 posts, read 7,999,782 times
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The study is only on new housing they did not change any numbers.
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Old 02-12-2009, 06:04 PM
 
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That IS changing the numbers. 2 years ago they would have included all homes on the market.
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Old 02-12-2009, 07:21 PM
 
1,740 posts, read 5,743,855 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stewiebabcock View Post
That IS changing the numbers. 2 years ago they would have included all homes on the market.
Exactly. And you notice that the media and the OP conveniently left the entire market out of the "facts" that were provided. It is like some people are trying to create news that shows we are really in a good real estate market right now.

Metro Study manipulating the data.
WOAI - reporting only the narrow slice of the housing market
The San Antonio Chamber of Commers - endorsing this narrow report as a sign of San Antonio health.
The OP touting this as fact for a strong market when all the other data suggests otherwise.

Right now, the National Association of Realtors is taking out advertisements encouraging people to buy houses, real estate agents are telling about how much money they are making and that life is great, the media is reporting how good san antonio is...in some effort to make news or make people feel better and the San Antonio Chamber of Commerce (which needs to attract people and businesses here) is endorsing a report that doesn't show the entire market - in an effort to show off San Antonio. Then the OP takes this and runs with it.

Too many people in that chain of events were irresponsible. Is the San Antonio market better than many others in the country? Yes. Is it "strong" right now. No. Strong was a couple years back when houses sold quickly for ever increasing asking prices. Strong was builders starting new houses as quicly as possible so that they could keep up with demand.

Right now - our real estate market came off of a year where prices dropped 5.5% - which tied for 60th out of 153 metro areas across the country. That is not good. And there shows no signs of a bottom.

And one thing that makes me laugh is that some people claim to be experts - and they weren't old enough to remember the 80's housing crisis!! Texas had a housing crisis due to the Oil bust...but it was regional. The economy we are in now is global - and so is the real estate bust.
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