Housing In San Diego (La Mesa, Mesa: for sale, foreclosure, rentals)

[donalduckmoore]

Living in San Diego is great. I live in Rancho Penasquito and I have been keeping track of the housing market here. Everybody says housing price in SD will drop, but I don't see that. In fact, Data Quick news in April mentioned that sale activity drops but median price actually goes up here in SD. I have also observed that phenomenon. Why is that? Any opinions?

[NYSD1995]

Originally Posted by donalduckmoore

Living in San Diego is great. I live in Rancho Penasquito and I have been keeping track of the housing market here. Everybody says housing price in SD will drop, but I don't see that. In fact, Data Quick news in April mentioned that sale activity drops but median price actually goes up here in SD. I have also observed that phenomenon. Why is that? Any opinions?

There are numerous reasons, but most explanations seem to point to the glut of low-end condos and condo conversions, and other high-priced entry-level property that is sitting on the market. The higher-priced homes are selling so the median moves up despite declining sales.

Medians are not the best metric but it's about all they've got. Personally I gauge the market on a much more micro-level - I watch the sales in my neighborhood and the ones immediately around us. I can say that while sales are softer than they've been in a long time, prices have not fallen precipitously.

[VeronikaW]

I don't see that happening, actually. 2 years ago, my husband and I were looking at condos. They were between $425-500 for a 2 bedroom condo. This year we looked at some of the exact same places (not the same unit but in the same complex, floor plan, etc.), and the prices were now from $325-400. It was easily a complete $100,000 drop in price. We're so glad we didn't buy 2 years ago.

V. =)

[kettlepot]

I think Sassberto's explanation makes sense. In particular there has been a tremendous glut of low end condo conversions that have slumped badly in price. However, the supply of future conversions is easily turned off, and reconversion back to rentals is pretty easy, so that supply should diminish this coming year. My local planning advisory board hasn't seen a condo conversion project come before them for nearly a year. Previously, there would be 1 to 3 projects every month.

As for my particular micro market, my neighborhood peaked in the 4th quarter of 2004. In the 2 1/2 years since then prices for single family homes dropped about 15%. However, it seems that in the past 6 months prices have hit a floor. I don't believe they will fall much more and will stay at these adjusted levels for the next few years. Since my neighborhood peaked about 6 to 9 months before most other areas, I believe the rest of San Diego will hit this plateau this summer.

As for price gains, those won't be coming for years.

[niy38]

which neighborhood you're living ?

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I think Sassberto's explanation makes sense. In particular there has been a tremendous glut of low end condo conversions that have slumped badly in price. However, the supply of future conversions is easily turned off, and reconversion back to rentals is pretty easy, so that supply should diminish this coming year. My local planning advisory board hasn't seen a condo conversion project come before them for nearly a year. Previously, there would be 1 to 3 projects every month.

As for my particular micro market, my neighborhood peaked in the 4th quarter of 2004. In the 2 1/2 years since then prices for single family homes dropped about 15%. However, it seems that in the past 6 months prices have hit a floor. I don't believe they will fall much more and will stay at these adjusted levels for the next few years. Since my neighborhood peaked about 6 to 9 months before most other areas, I believe the rest of San Diego will hit this plateau this summer.

As for price gains, those won't be coming for years.
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[donalduckmoore]

What area do you live?

[JohnAlt]

Originally Posted by Sassberto

Medians are not the best metric but it's about all they've got. Personally I gauge the market on a much more micro-level - I watch the sales in my neighborhood and the ones immediately around us. I can say that while sales are softer than they've been in a long time, prices have not fallen precipitously.

It doesn't look to me like this is the case 4 years later. I'm interested in possibly buying in Rolando and am seeing sales much lower than peak pricing. I suppose most of the drop happened after your 2007 post?

[NYSD1995]

Originally Posted by JohnAlt

I suppose most of the drop happened after your 2007 post?

Stock market and general economy crashed in Oct 08. 08-09 was the foreclosure boom when the housing market essentially collapsed, and while at this point that seems over, anyone selling a house now is probably in some kind of distress. If you are looking at houses in Rolando DM me on specific addresses and I'll let you know what's good. Only area I would stay away from is around Clay Park, Stanley, Seminole, and anything too close to ECB or University. Would also avoid Rolando Park (neighborhood south of University) for the most part, but there are OK blocks in there too and it is cheaper. The blocks around Rolando Blvd is best and any of the Italian-named streets (Maracco, Lorca, Tarragonna, Revillo, Aragon) are good. East towards La Mesa is also OK, but a bit less well-kept and a bit of a hodgepodge due to the homes being built when the area was unincorporated. As far as I can tell 375k seems like the sweet spot if you want something reasonably renovated and move-in ready, below that you get into the small / unrenovated / trashed homes. The last foreclosure house in my immediate area just sold for that mark and is a turnkey home, on a canyon, quiet street. Also would strongly look at the areas right around La Mesa Village to the southwest and east, a bit pricier and very little for sale at any time, but some nice homes there... just watch out for structural issue because of the terrain.

[skeke]

I live in Rolando Park and love it. Neighbors are friendly. We have an activity Community Association. It is quiet and feels safe. My ONLY complaint are the people who don't keep their houses and yards up. Too many of those and it's annoying. Otherwise we are happy as clams in Rolando Park. I would recommend it. I have zero complaints on my street but know someone on Vivien who has complained about houses, or a house, full of SDSU students.