Demographics and changes in the outer East Bay (Oakland, Fremont: cul-de-sac, young professionals)

[Dave Coe]

Tri-Valley cities unsuccessful in their RHNA appeals
Housing reductions denied for Pleasanton, Dublin, San Ramon and Danville

"Appeals from four Tri-Valley cities to reduce their Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) assignments were recently denied, affirming that each jurisdiction will be required to plan for -- but not necessarily build -- more than 17,000 new housing units combined."




https://pleasantonweekly.com/news/20...r-rhna-appeals

[Dave Coe]

Interesting observation about the 2010s demographic trends taking into account the job to housing ratio.


https://robertstark.substack.com/p/2...-the-bay-areas

"The difficulties of making demographic projections, even if based on hard data, is the variable of factors that could shape future trends such as zoning, the economy, and immigration. California’s growth is heavily dependent upon immigration as fertility is below replacement level for all ethnic groups, including Asians and Latinos. If immigration were entirely cut off, the Bay Area would likely see Asians, whose fertility in the region is abysmally low, decline within a decade. If we were to assume a continuation of policies and political and economic trends of the 2010s, of massive tech job growth plus maintaining restrictive zoning continues, then we would see growth dominated by Asians, who are the majority of the Bay Area’s tech workforce since 2010, squeeze out the Bay Area’s White and Latino populations. Latino growth would likely start declining if single family zoning is not reformed."


"However this prediction neglects that trends are influx and unpredictable. Even though the pandemic tech exodus was more modest than anticipated, I don’t expect the Bay Area to experience the same degree of tech job growth this decade. There are signs that we could see another dot com bubble crash and at the very least, remote work will enable tech companies to relocate jobs to more affordable regions to cut costs. I also expect the Bay Area to increase the number of new housing units, as Governor Newsom signed the zoning reform bills Sb9 and Sb10 into law, right after the recall was defeated. The implementation of Sb9, which ends single family zoning, plus a more decentralized tech sector will not only ease the cost of housing but established a new paradigm in the Bay Area."

[Dave Coe]

Interesting observation about the 2010s demographic trends taking into account the job to housing ratio.


https://robertstark.substack.com/p/2...-the-bay-areas

"The difficulties of making demographic projections, even if based on hard data, is the variable of factors that could shape future trends such as zoning, the economy, and immigration. California’s growth is heavily dependent upon immigration as fertility is below replacement level for all ethnic groups, including Asians and Latinos. If immigration were entirely cut off, the Bay Area would likely see Asians, whose fertility in the region is abysmally low, decline within a decade. If we were to assume a continuation of policies and political and economic trends of the 2010s, of massive tech job growth plus maintaining restrictive zoning continues, then we would see growth dominated by Asians, who are the majority of the Bay Area’s tech workforce since 2010, squeeze out the Bay Area’s White and Latino populations. Latino growth would likely start declining if single family zoning is not reformed."


"However this prediction neglects that trends are influx and unpredictable. Even though the pandemic tech exodus was more modest than anticipated, I don’t expect the Bay Area to experience the same degree of tech job growth this decade. There are signs that we could see another dot com bubble crash and at the very least, remote work will enable tech companies to relocate jobs to more affordable regions to cut costs. I also expect the Bay Area to increase the number of new housing units, as Governor Newsom signed the zoning reform bills Sb9 and Sb10 into law, right after the recall was defeated. The implementation of Sb9, which ends single family zoning, plus a more decentralized tech sector will not only ease the cost of housing but established a new paradigm in the Bay Area."

[Boompa]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

2020 Census: Speculating The Bay Area’s Demographic Future:

"The SF Metro’s current demographic breakdown is 36.2% White, 27.2% Asian, 22.9% Hispanic, and 6.8% Black, and for the San Josee metro it is 37.8% Asian, 28.8% White, and 26.3% Hispanic. The Bay Area is close to achieving roughly an even number of Whites, Asians, and Latinos, with the White proportion close to the State average, while Asians are overrepresented and Latinos are underrepresented. In 2017 the Bay Area Equity Atlas (page 23) predicted that the Bay Area’s White population would go from 37% in 2020 to 24% in 2050, the Asian population from 27% to 32%, Latino from 26% to 33%, and Black from 6% to 4%."

https://robertstark.substack.com/p/2...-the-bay-areas

Much of the Asian community is asians who bought newly constructed homes in the 1950s and 1960s. Many are cash poor and can not afford to move. Prop 13 keeps them where they are. Most of these homes are in poor repair. Their children are looking forward to inheriting them and selling them to buy better housing in the suburbs. That will reduce the bulge in the asian population.

[NYSD1995]

Originally Posted by Boompa

Much of the Asian community is asians who bought newly constructed homes in the 1950s and 1960s. Many are cash poor and can not afford to move. Prop 13 keeps them where they are. Most of these homes are in poor repair. Their children are looking forward to inheriting them and selling them to buy better housing in the suburbs. That will reduce the bulge in the asian population.

Exactly. Note this has been happening in Southern CA (where there is less of a jobs boom from tech) for 30+ years.

[Dave Coe]

Originally Posted by Boompa

Much of the Asian community is asians who bought newly constructed homes in the 1950s and 1960s. Many are cash poor and can not afford to move. Prop 13 keeps them where they are. Most of these homes are in poor repair. Their children are looking forward to inheriting them and selling them to buy better housing in the suburbs. That will reduce the bulge in the asian population.

50s and 60s? Back then the Asian population was mostly in urban enclaves, Chinatowns ect. The suburban Asian ethnoburb didn't become a thing until the 80s and 90s.

[Dave Coe]

Originally Posted by NYSD1995

Exactly. Note this has been happening in Southern CA (where there is less of a jobs boom from tech) for 30+ years.

Especially in the suburbs, Orange County, San Gabriel Valley, and the Gateway Cities. However there are a lot of tech jobs in Orange County and LA's Silicon Beach.

[Dave Coe]

Photos: Drone views of Bethel Island’s Delta Coves housing development
494 homes will have their own private docks:


https://www.siliconvalley.com/2021/1...g-development/


Dublin council approves 573-home East Ranch’ project on 165 acres:


https://www.siliconvalley.com/2021/1...165-acres/amp/

[Dave Coe]

Hotly contested Lafayette housing project gets court OK
Judge rules Terraces of Lafayettes’ environmental review holds up



https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/11/...gets-court-ok/

[Dave Coe]

Dublin is the only CA city to make the list.

Places (min. 50k) by decrease in non-Hispanic white % of the population between 2010 and 2020:

1. Florissant, MO (68% to 46%)
2. St. Cloud, FL (62% to 40%)
3. Sammamish, WA (72% to 51%)
4. Dublin, CA (44% to 25%)
5. Frisco, TX (67% to 48%)
6. Tamarac, FL (49% to 30%)


Dublin's NH White raw population has only marginally decreased from 20k to 18k over that period, while its Asian population has skyrocketed from 14k to 42k - a 200% increase (and 93% increase in pop share, from 30% to 58%)