Demographics and changes in the outer East Bay (San Francisco, Concord: buyer, luxury)

[Dave Coe]

"My prediction for the Bay Area’s demographic future is that we will see a pan-Asian region, making up the bulk of the Silicon Valley, Southern Alameda County, and much of San Mateo County. I predict that Whites will remain demographically dominant in Marin County for the foreseeable future, that the Whiter areas of the Peninsula, and Silicon Valley could transform into blended White/Asian communities, and that Central Contra Costa County could go either way, a White enclave or a blended White Asian area."




2020 Census: Speculating The Bay Area’s Demographic Future



https://robertstark.substack.com/p/2...utm_source=url

[Vision67]

Terraces of Lafayette apartment project hits another delay

No set construction date pending an appeals court decision

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/03/...ontent=curated

"Construction of the Terraces of Lafayette apartments has stalled once again — this time because a local grassroots group appealed a judge’s ruling that the project’s environmental review is adequate on Jan. 6, 2022.

“Contrary to the false impression created by the recent city of Lafayette public announcement headline, the decision of the Terraces lawsuit is not finalized,” wrote Michael Griffiths, president of Save Lafayette, on the group’s website. Save Lafayette has been trying to stop the project for years.

The Terraces of Lafayette would include 315 apartments, 63 of them affordable, in 14 buildings, on 22 acres at Deer Hill and Pleasant Hill roads near Highway 24. It also would have a two-story clubhouse and 550 parking spaces."


NIMBYs are winning.

[Dave Coe]

Originally Posted by Vision67

Terraces of Lafayette apartment project hits another delay

No set construction date pending an appeals court decision

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/03/...ontent=curated

"Construction of the Terraces of Lafayette apartments has stalled once again — this time because a local grassroots group appealed a judge’s ruling that the project’s environmental review is adequate on Jan. 6, 2022.

“Contrary to the false impression created by the recent city of Lafayette public announcement headline, the decision of the Terraces lawsuit is not finalized,” wrote Michael Griffiths, president of Save Lafayette, on the group’s website. Save Lafayette has been trying to stop the project for years.

The Terraces of Lafayette would include 315 apartments, 63 of them affordable, in 14 buildings, on 22 acres at Deer Hill and Pleasant Hill roads near Highway 24. It also would have a two-story clubhouse and 550 parking spaces."


NIMBYs are winning.

This is the project that Sonja Trauss' group tried to sue Lafayette for blocking on Fair Housing grounds.

[Vision67]

County approves plan for condos on Palmer School site near Walnut Creek

125 units to replace closed campus

https://danvillesanramon.com/news/20...r-walnut-creek

"The Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday pushed a developer's plan to build 125 condos on the former Palmer School site in unincorporated Walnut Creek closer to reality.

The board officially certified the environmental impact report for the Oak Road Townhouse Condominium Project, planned to be built on 5.94 acres across Jones Road from Interstate 680 and near the Pleasant Hill BART station.

The project, which would be approximately 470 feet north of the Contra Costa Canal, would entail 19 three-story buildings, some of which will have rooftop decks.

All of the buildings of Palmer School, which operated there from 1939 until it closed in June 2020, would be demolished.

The site would be rezoned and subdivided into 19 residential common lots and 11 private roadway lots (to be owned and maintained by the future homeowner's association). There would also be 278 on-site parking spaces, including 34 bicycle spaces.

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The project includes the removal of approximately 74 trees and relocation of one tree.

The applicant, Summerhill Oak Road LLC, would be required to sell 10 units to affordable and moderate-income households, and pay the county in-lieu fees of $387,753."

[apple92680]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

"My prediction for the Bay Area’s demographic future is that we will see a pan-Asian region, making up the bulk of the Silicon Valley, Southern Alameda County, and much of San Mateo County. I predict that Whites will remain demographically dominant in Marin County for the foreseeable future, that the Whiter areas of the Peninsula, and Silicon Valley could transform into blended White/Asian communities, and that Central Contra Costa County could go either way, a White enclave or a blended White Asian area."




2020 Census: Speculating The Bay Area’s Demographic Future



https://robertstark.substack.com/p/2...utm_source=url

What about the Pittsburg/Antioch/Oakley/Brentwood area?

Do you see it getting better or staying ghetto?

A potential relief valve could be Stockton?

[Dave Coe]

Concord Reuse Project Moves Forward with Many Questions Still Unanswered



https://www.greenbelt.org/blog/conco...ll-unanswered/

[Dave Coe]

Originally Posted by apple92680

What about the Pittsburg/Antioch/Oakley/Brentwood area?

Do you see it getting better or staying ghetto?

A potential relief valve could be Stockton?

It depends on section 8 policies. My impression was that a lot of lower income residents from Oakland have relocated there in recent years and the last census shows that the area had a significant increase in the Black and Latino population but decline in the White population. Brentwood is nicer though.



To be honest I am less familiar with that area. I've been to the Western and Southern, and Central Parts of Contra Costa County but I have never been to the Pittsburg/Antioch/Oakley/Brentwood area.

[Vision67]

A stalled housing project asks: Should we preserve Bay Area hillsides or watch ‘people move to Texas’?

https://www.sfchronicle.com/eastbay/...e-17029697.php

"For more than 20 years the 600-acre windswept slope above the Contra Costa County city of Pittsburg has been a centerpiece of the multi-pronged battle between developers who want to build homes in the East Bay hills and environmentalists determined to preserve the open “ridgeline” that defines the region’s dramatic topography.

Now, like so many California land use conflicts, the future of the 1,650-home subdivision development is playing out in a mostly empty county courtroom, far from the site in question and the residents who would be impacted."

"While the subdivision has more in common with the mega-development in the Central Valley than the typical Bay Area infill project, Discovery Builders President Louis Parsons said that it will provide much-needed housing that is close to the Pittsburg/Bay Point BART station. Pittsburg is also more affordable than most of the Bay Area. The average home there is $680,000, compared with $740,000 in Concord or $860,000 in Pleasant Hill.

“We build housing for working families,” he said.

Parsons said the opposition to the project was similar to other projects rejected through the Bay Area."

A 20 year battle?

[Vision67]

How one of the Bay Area’s most famous outdoor spaces nearly became a huge housing development

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...r-17029477.php

"The planned community of Marincello, envisioned as a sprawling hillside community for 20,000 people in single-family homes, townhouses and apartment towers, started with a fishhook of paved curbing on Tennessee Valley Road.

That’s where it ended, too.

Marincello was halted soon after it began by a conservation drive and legal crusade that eventually carved out more than 3 square miles of open space stretching from the edge of Mill Valley to the beach. The land was eventually absorbed into the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, where thousands come to hike, bike and be in the wild each year."

"But that stretch of curb, perhaps 100 feet of it forming a narrow loop in the weeds across from the Tennessee Valley parking lot, has stubbornly held its ground for nearly 60 years. It will still be there when the parking lot reopens around April 8 after being paved and striped for the first time.

Amid a yearlong celebration of the 50th anniversary of the GGNRA, the old curb stands as an inconspicuous monument to the beloved green space, and how close it came to getting closed off to the public for good."

The NIMBYs have a long history in the Bay Area. I'll admit that once you're here and are lucky enough to become a homeowner, the thought of additional development is not attractive. It just means more congestion. However, it's totally unfair to the next generation.

I moved here about 6 months ago from Colorado Springs, a place that has copious land on its eastern edge. The only thing preventing development there is cost and water availability.

I really don't know how the housing problem will be solved here in the Bay Area. I expect the battles between the NIMBYs and YIMBYs to continue indefinitely.

[steve_holt]

Originally Posted by Vision67

How one of the Bay Area’s most famous outdoor spaces nearly became a huge housing development

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...r-17029477.php
I really don't know how the housing problem will be solved here in the Bay Area. I expect the battles between the NIMBYs and YIMBYs to continue indefinitely.

NIMBYs have a lot more vested interest than YIMBYs, so they'll persist longer. The Bay Area will continue its transition into a retirement village, where only older live, who complain about how all the new people in the area are ruining it. Meanwhile, the tax base continues to dry up due to lack of income tax and subsidized property tax, so all governmental services continue to be cut back.