Why hasn't the Singularity gone mainstream (yet?) (power, advance, smartphone)
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So you think that we will be walking around in 2030 with 1-cubic-micron computers in our bodies, each of which has a processing power equivalent to what a desktop PC had in the year 2005?
Smart phone is not wearable tech. This is from Forbes:
How Wearable Technology Can -- And Will -- Change Your Business
In recent years, wearable technology has become a hot topic in the tech industry. With its tight relationship with the Internet of Things, many insiders have designated wearables for business as the next big thing. But while the most talked-about new wearable technologies—such as theApple iWatch and Google Glass—are either not yet widely available, or are only just beginning to make their way into customers’ hands, there are many other wearable products that have already established themselves in the market.
To many users, these new devices are often categorized as fun novelties and interesting gadgets, but others see them for what they really are: a game-changing influence with the potential to utterly disrupt the modern business world .
Rather I win or lose this "debate" is not my goal on this thread. My goal is to provide information to people about fast changing information technology as we currently enter the wearable tech age then actually merge with it in the 2020's and the impact it will have on us and society. I know not everyone is going to understand it and that's ok. I mean 5 years ago I was told we will not have wearable tech today and yet we do. The impact it is having on our lives is something that society has never experienced and many people are saying wow this came out of nowhere yet I saw it coming. Now today some people say we won't merge with the technology in the 2020's and why yet when it happens it will have a greater impact on society and most people will say wow this came out of nowhere and I can say na I saw it coming for years.
Now if you honestly want to learn about it and understand how it will change society this is a PDF version of the second machine age that I highly recommend.
The graph near the bottom of page 25 seems to be cherry-picked to me because it includes a set of performance measures for supercomputers over various time frames, but leaves out desktop and laptop computer processing speeds and thus conveniently ignores the performance measures that have been flat for some time now.
Of course, you could make the argument that the Herb Sutter article "The Free Lunch is Over" cherry picks in the opposite direction - and to some extent I would actually agree with that sentiment.
The point to draw from all of this is that, some performance measures have been increasing exponentially (as for instance those on page 25 of that source), while others did so until around 2003 and then stopped, as shown in the Herb Sutter article (Note, by the way, that ILP is included in that graph, so Valmond's counter to the argument is problematic!).
As long as this is the case, you have no basis for asserting that your parameter of choice will increase exponentially over the next "X" years, unless that specific parameter has been doing so for long enough to tell.
Heh, just put away that book to continue The Zero Marginal Cost Society! But I will pick it up after I finished this one.
I think it is a good entry point (for what I have read) but it also not that interesting if you have already read Kurzweils books. The part on innovations is good though.
There is some overlapping but I found it to be a little different. Less focused on the singularity and more focused on what they call the second machine age. I could be wrong but I think they talk about zero marginal cost as I have read about that as well and how it will change the economy. From what I can tell I think we will see a lot of that this decade, by 2020, as automaton and robots continue to advance exponentially.
This is basic maths, you can buy a Baxter robot for 22.000$, it will work for 3 years.
Is it more expensive than having a human worker? Get the human.
Is it less expensive than having a human worker? Get the robot.
Now, what you seems to fail to see, is that robotics is partly an information technology (motors and batteries, if any, is not).
Baxter is economically viable Today in some cases, what will happen 2 years from now when he will be twice as fast? It will be economically viable in a lot more places.
Now, if you fail to see that information technology is on an exponential trend (please do tell!), so be it and future will tell who's right and who's not but I think you have to be blind not to see it.
Technology is not exponential in any broad sense. Only quantities can be exponential, as I explained in post #1615. Not only that, but any exponential model can only be applied to a specific parameter.
There is some overlapping but I found it to be a little different. Less focused on the singularity and more focused on what they call the second machine age. I could be wrong but I think they talk about zero marginal cost as I have read about that as well and how it will change the economy. From what I can tell I think we will see a lot of that this decade, by 2020, as automaton and robots continue to advance exponentially.
The graph near the bottom of page 25 seems to be cherry-picked to me because it includes a set of performance measures for supercomputers over various time frames, but leaves out desktop and laptop computer processing speeds and thus conveniently ignores the performance measures that have been flat for some time now.
Of course, you could make the argument that the Herb Sutter article "The Free Lunch is Over" cherry picks in the opposite direction - and to some extent I would actually agree with that sentiment.
The point to draw from all of this is that, some performance measures have been increasing exponentially (as for instance those on page 25 of that source), while others did so until around 2003 and then stopped, as shown in the Herb Sutter article (Note, by the way, that ILP is included in that graph, so Valmond's counter to the argument is problematic!).
As long as this is the case, you have no basis for asserting that your parameter of choice will increase exponentially over the next "X" years, unless that specific parameter has been doing so for long enough to tell.
People have been saying that since I was a kid in the 80's. Yes it happened but it won't longer and why. Then, when the lap top came in the 90's they said well ya but it won't last longer then when the smart phone came in around 2005 they said well ya it won't last longer now today we have wearable tech and people like you say well ya it won't last longer yet by the mid to late 2020's we will begin to merge with the tech, nano technology, and that will have a profound impact on society as we enter life 3.0 or the nanotech revolution by 2030.
You will see as automation and robotics continue to advance exponentially and more and more jobs are taken away not to mention solar. My plan is to be completely on solar by 2020. Over the next few years it will get easier and easier to show what is going on as I will have more examples over time. I, already, have a lot more examples today then I did when I started talking about this.
People have been saying that since I was a kid in the 80's. Yes it happened but it won't longer and why. Then, when the lap top came in the 90's they said well ya but it won't last longer then when the smart phone came in around 2005 they said well ya it won't last longer now today we have wearable tech and people like you say well ya it won't last longer yet by the mid to late 2020's we will begin to merge with the tech, nano technology, and that will have a profound impact on society as we enter life 3.0 or the nanotech revolution by 2030.
I don't care what people said in the 80's. That's not the point, just a red herring.
You will see as automation and robotics continue to advance exponentially and more and more jobs are taken away not to mention solar. My plan is to be completely on solar by 2020. Over the next few years it will get easier and easier to show what is going on as I will have more examples over time. I, already, have a lot more examples today then I did when I started talking about this.
And after more than 300 posts, you still have yet to address the problem I explained in post #1360.
You can make all the crazy assertions you want, but until you address this issue, no one has any good reason to believe you.
"Ray Kurzweil said so" is not an argument.
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