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Base on the 70's to now computers and been on a roller coaster ride with speed every 12 months being factor of two or three. But in the past 5 years computers are not two or three times powerful. A 2015/ 2016 computer is not two or three times powerful than a 2010 computer.
Exactly. One of the erroneous premises of Singularity acolytes is that Moore's Law is infinite: That is, there are no finite limits to processor speed. But that probablly isn't the case because every other technology developed previously has finite limits. For instance, they can't make cars that travel 1500 km/hour. It's very likely IT technology will eventually reach similar practical limits.
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Originally Posted by eok
It matters not if it takes time to develop optical or quantum computers. It will be done, and might be done largely by machines. The singularity is when new generations of machines can invent newer generations of machines faster and faster, so the generations start going by at speeds that would make humans dizzy. Humans will be like pets. Probably very pampered pets. Being transhuman is only useful for the purpose of preserving your ego beyond its normal lifespan. Pure machines will be able to outcompete transhumans in every way.
Conjecture, and nothing more. Will technology do many things better than humans? Yes, it already does. Computers calculate many things more quickly and accurately than any human can.
But in terms of creativity, thus far computers' abilities in this regard are severely limited. They can only poorly mimick human creativity at best.
So, yes, technology can be effective in doing many things better than humans. But in terms of actually creating new ideas and the trial error processes of perfecting those ideas, they're woefully inept. AI might eventually develop this ability, but if and when it happens is conjecture. It seems doubtful it will happen in my lifetime (within the next 35 years).
Exactly. One of the erroneous premises of Singularity acolytes is that Moore's Law is infinite: That is, there are no finite limits to processor speed. But that probablly isn't the case because every other technology developed previously has finite limits. For instance, they can't make cars that travel 1500 km/hour. It's very likely IT technology will eventually reach similar practical limits.
Conjecture, and nothing more. Will technology do many things better than humans? Yes, it already does. Computers calculate many things more quickly and accurately than any human can.
Bad example because how fast cars go is not information technology and the only thing that advances exponentially and can be predicted is information technology.
Exactly. One of the erroneous premises of Singularity acolytes is that Moore's Law is infinite: That is, there are no finite limits to processor speed. But that probablly isn't the case because every other technology developed previously has finite limits. For instance, they can't make cars that travel 1500 km/hour. It's very likely IT technology will eventually reach similar practical limits.
Moore's Law has ended now. That is why all the talk on optical computers and quantum computers.
But we have still not made a working optical computer or quantum computer in lab that alone computer for sale for rich people to buy or the NSA.
Conjecture, and nothing more. Will technology do many things better than humans? Yes, it already does. Computers calculate many things more quickly and accurately than any human can.
But in terms of creativity, thus far computers' abilities in this regard are severely limited. They can only poorly mimick human creativity at best.
So, yes, technology can be effective in doing many things better than humans. But in terms of actually creating new ideas and the trial error processes of perfecting those ideas, they're woefully inept. AI might eventually develop this ability, but if and when it happens is conjecture. It seems doubtful it will happen in my lifetime (within the next 35 years).
Humans are better at thinking, creativity and dreaming and building stuff. Well computers are better at calculating large numbers, working with large data sets, multiple tasking and memory recall.
quantum computer work with very large data sets and equation and give solution outcomes to the problem.
So, yes, technology can be effective in doing many things better than humans. But in terms of actually creating new ideas and the trial error processes of perfecting those ideas, they're woefully inept. AI might eventually develop this ability, but if and when it happens is conjecture. It seems doubtful it will happen in my lifetime (within the next 35 years).
The Singularity say by year 2040 AI will be smarter than human brain.
Than any world problem you turn to AI to come up for a solution.
Bad example because how fast cars go is not information technology and the only thing that advances exponentially and can be predicted is information technology.
That's a statement of blind faith, not science. Exponential advancement is an abstract mathematical concept, and abstraction is often not born out in the real world. Humans, for all our capablities, are finite; therefore everything we create has finite limits, IT and AI. We don't know yet exactly what the limits of IT/AI are, but eventually we'll reach them.
The human brain is the consequence of millions of years of evolution. We don't entirely understand how this process lead to the human brain as it is, so it seems highly doubtful we can 'super-charge' or enhance a process we don't even fully understand.
Some technology is truly remarkable and does some amazing things. But currently we can only make technology that emulates simple life-forms. We're not even close to creating an AI equivalent to even a canine brain, much less human. If it ever happens, it will probably be long after we're dead.
You're clearly biased by your quasi-religious zealotry. If you actually considered the more skeptical perspectives of scientists who aren't Singulatarians, you'd understanding how flawed and blindly biased your perspective is.
That's a statement of blind faith, not science. Exponential advancement is an abstract mathematical concept, and abstraction is often not born out in the real world. Humans, for all our capablities, are finite; therefore everything we create has finite limits, IT and AI. We don't know yet exactly what the limits of IT/AI are, but eventually we'll reach them.
The human brain is the consequence of millions of years of evolution. We don't entirely understand how this process lead to the human brain as it is, so it seems highly doubtful we can 'super-charge' or enhance a process we don't even fully understand.
Some technology is truly remarkable and does some amazing things. But currently we can only make technology that emulates simple life-forms. We're not even close to creating an AI equivalent to even a canine brain, much less human. If it ever happens, it will probably be long after we're dead.
You're clearly biased by your quasi-religious zealotry. If you actually considered the more skeptical perspectives of scientists who aren't Singulatarians, you'd understanding how flawed and blindly biased your perspective is.
According to the blue brain project leaders they should reverse engineer the brain by the early 2020's and that will give us a big boost on how the brain works. But even now they have already reversed engineered parts of the brain and it is helping us improve AI systems. Sure we have only reversed engineered the brain of a mouse but just a few years ago it was just a insect and I was told it would be a long time before we got to a mouse not the couple I said it would be and yet they did it. Now the same people say we will not have computers as intelligent as a human by 2029. This is all thanks to information technology advancing exponentially and its not abstract as there is over 100 years of data to prove it and now with 3D chips its only advancing faster.
... Now the same people say we will not have computers as intelligent as a human by 2029. This is all thanks to information technology advancing exponentially and its not abstract as there is over 100 years of data to prove it and now with 3D chips its only advancing faster.
Do you understand logic? It's impossible to prove something that hasn't happened yet. Logically, it's simply not possible. Can you prove the sun will rise in the east on May 12, 2255? No. It's very likely it will, but it's also possible a massive celestial object will obliterate the earth before then.
Remember, in stocks, past returns do not guarantee future returns. That's exactly what you're doing: You're argument is based on an assumption, not facts or evidence. Since we haven't reached them yet, we don't know what the limits of IT are. But the technology almost certainly does have finite limits as all technology does.
Do you understand logic? It's impossible to prove something that hasn't happened yet. Logically, it's simply not possible. Can you prove the sun will rise in the east on May 12, 2255? No. It's very likely it will, but it's also possible a massive celestial object will obliterate the earth before then.
Remember, in stocks, past returns do not guarantee future returns. That's exactly what you're doing: You're argument is based on an assumption, not facts or evidence. Since we haven't reached them yet, we don't know what the limits of IT are. But the technology almost certainly does have finite limits as all technology does.
It's funny you bring up the sunrise example cus I have actually used that in the past. I can ask Siri when the sunrise will be tomorrow and due to mathematical models she will give me the exact time. Can something happen to cause the sun not to rise? Sure but the odds are so low Siri does not even need to calculate them. Same with how information technology advances exponentially. With mathematical models up till the singularity we can predict where it will be. After that all the models breakdown so it's impossible to predict. Now can something happen to make it wrong? Sure but the odds are so low it's not worth talking about.
Finally the stock market is not information technology so impossible to predict with 99.9% certainty.
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