What will Toledo, Ohio look like...in say 10, 15 or 20 years ? (Columbus: apartment, condo)

[C-Dawg]

Thus, as a young adult, I know I would never move to Toledo, and I'm doubtful Toledo could even have a job for me. Again, Dayton and its suburbs as well as larger cities like Columbus and Cincinnati are in better shape, and their suburbs remind me of NoVa without the price and traffic. Thus why we stayed here.

Dayton is no better than Toledo, not by a longshot. Delphi? Are you kidding? How many Fortune 500's are left? Dayton's lost more of its manufacturing and industrial economy than Toledo has. Maybe it's luck, but Jeep and GM spared Toledo. Toledo is also a major rail, shipping, and refining hub, and those industries are doing fine.

Dayton is actually more decimated and thoroughly ghettofied. Violent crime rates are through the roof and highest in Ohio. The core city is in shambles like all core cities in Ohio. All Ohio central cities are hurting, period. They just don't compare to what you see on the East Coast or even Milwaukee.

Dayton is Toledo without water and less diversity.

Ohio is a largely urbanized state, yet its cities are pitiful.
As I keep saying, the UrbanOhio guys are delusional: Ohio does not have hip cities and may never have them.

Certainly. I sometimes post on UrbanOhio, and everyone tends to paint a much rosier picture of their cities than reality. Even Columbus and Cincinnati, with stronger economies, are thoroughly ghettofied at the core and have seen mass population loss (30% since 1950 in old Columbus and 40% in Cincinnati). All this so-called "growth" is way out in the suburbs far removed from the central city. Ohio in general is in BAD shape. Columbus has just managed to cover it up by annexing suburbs. If you look at the 1950 boundaries (core 50 square miles) it's lost every bit as much as Toledo and Akron.

Job loss, brain drain, stagnant population growth (look at all the older cities), and serious PR problems plague the ENTIRE state. Ohio can't be cool. The media hates us, our only truly strong economy (Columbus with lots of people with graduate and professional degrees) is still Cowtown in most of America's eyes, and our other cities have serious gang, drug, or violent crime problems.

I've always said the state's obsession with football is a convenient way to divert attention away from its real problems.

Toledo already is a "suburb" of Detroit.

Toledo is a satellite of Detroit, not a suburb. However, Toledo is an independent media and consumer market, and a fairly large one at that. It's similar to the Boston-Providence setup. Detroit is Boston (though more ghetto) and Toledo is Providence.

One day, Detroit-Toledo-Ann Arbor will form a massive CMSA. This could happen by 2010. Though Toledo and Detroit are only connected by a thin strip of beach houses along Lake Erie, there is major cultural overlap. Toledo is Detroit-cultured without a doubt, and arguably always has been. They share a lot of media- Channel 11, WJLB, 89X, WRIF 101, Tower 98, etc., etc.

Its very sad. My family wants me to come home to visit (actually they would be happier if I moved back) but I just can't. It is depressing to see what was once a vital city looking so rundown, knowing that as a graduate of UT that I couldn't even find a decent paying job there. That's my two cents.

It's certainly depressing, and I see this everywhere in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. We form the "industrial triad of slow death". Toledo of course was once a far more influential and important city. It was the nation's 26th largest city in 1920, and booming economically. It 2000, it ranked around 55th and is struggling to recover from American de-industrialization. The thing is, the same can be said about Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo, Dayton, Akron, Youngstown, Pittsburgh, etc.

The industrial Midwest is hurting in general.

As you probably see, Cincy and Detroit are two different animals. For one, Detroit isn't growing towards Toledo as Cincy is to Dayton. Oh well, I guess 20 years could change things (hopefully)

Detroit is also three times the size of Cincinnati. Detroit's urbanized area is 4 million while Cincinnati's is 1.5 million (both MSA's are larger, but that includes stuff 40 miles from the city). With the University of Michigan, by far the most important, well-endowed research institution in Michigan or Ohio, Detroit and Toledo will be fine. The economy will change because Ann Arbor will demand it. Cincinnati and Dayton have nothing remotely equivelant to U of M.

Also, Toledo and Detroit ARE connected. Luna Pier, Estral Beach, Monroe, Detroit Beach, Stony Point, etc. form a strip of small towns connecting Detroit and Toledo. Of course you can't see this from I-75, but it's all there on the lake. Except for Monroe (an industrial/auto city), all these towns are growing in population. Though, like almost everything in Ohio and Michigan, this "growth" is sprawl.

Thus, exactly when was Dayton going down? I digress.

1970 until today. After the mass expansion of golobalization and deindustrilization of the Midwest, cities like Dayton (and Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland, etc.) have seen their populations stagnate and their cores have suffered considerably (loss of retail, corporate HQ's, etc.). Thousands upon thousands of manufacturing jobs (always the backbone of Dayton) have been lost and sent overseas. Over this time period, Dayton also lost Mead and other Fortune companies. Right now, GM and Delphi are doing most of the destruction...

I know I'm being harsh, but ALL Ohio cities have serious hurdles to overcome, and I doubt things will turn around without a complete loss of fresh water out West and down South. That would force people to move back to areas with adequate water resources.

[LiptonGuy]

Pilliod Njaim :

What areas of the country (which major cities) do you think will be affected the soonest, in terms of Water Supply Problems ?

Will some cities, be facing crisis situations, in the next 10 to 15 years ?

I myself wonder, how certain parts of the country ( like south Florida, Phoenix, Las Vegas) can keep expanding, and not incur serious water problems. It appears this is already happening in Florida. The water level on the largest lake in the state, just recently, was dropping 1/2 an inch, every day.

Does anybody know of any good books or websites, that address this issue ?

[wrightflyer]

Gaa! I'm sorry but it appears I've opened a can of worms. Pilliod, what you say is true. Dayton and Toledo (along with many midwestern and NE cities) have been hit hard over the past couple of decades.

In terms of my plan of employment, I say that because I'm hoping for an international relations degree and I can only put that to work in so many (few) places here. Toledo has the auto industry (but not the corporate HQ's) while Dayton has Wright-Patt (Ohio's largest single site employer) and the National Air and Space Intelligece Center's HQ. Still, I'll probably have to move to DC where it'll still be a shock despite being there with family on numerous ocasions.

In terms of my "rosier" view of Dayton, I have this optimistic but realistic viewpoint because if I didn't it would be too d*** depressing. Instead, I focus on the good stuff and try to promote the place so people move here and this place becomes better known and more respected in the eyes of the nation.

Maybe I was harsh on Toledo. Maybe a couple of drives through isn't enough to justify my opinion. Ask almost anyone down here which is better, 'nati and Dayton or Toledo and Detroit, and most would say the former. I'm sure up there it would be the complete opposite. Yet, opinions are free so what am I (or all of us) to judge a place I do not live? You have defended Toledo in the past, and I do the same here for Dayton. Hopefully, for this state's sake, everyone's transition from the decaying manufacturing sector to technology and medicine is easier now and in the future than 10, 20, or 30 years ago.

Originally Posted by Pilliod Njaim

As you probably see, Cincy and Detroit are two different animals. For one, Detroit isn't growing towards Toledo as Cincy is to Dayton. Oh well, I guess 20 years could change things (hopefully)

Detroit is also three times the size of Cincinnati. Detroit's urbanized area is 4 million while Cincinnati's is 1.5 million (both MSA's are larger, but that includes stuff 40 miles from the city). With the University of Michigan, by far the most important, well-endowed research institution in Michigan or Ohio, Detroit and Toledo will be fine. The economy will change because Ann Arbor will demand it. Cincinnati and Dayton have nothing remotely equivelant to U of M.

Also, Toledo and Detroit ARE connected. Luna Pier, Estral Beach, Monroe, Detroit Beach, Stony Point, etc. form a strip of small towns connecting Detroit and Toledo. Of course you can't see this from I-75, but it's all there on the lake. Except for Monroe (an industrial/auto city), all these towns are growing in population. Though, like almost everything in Ohio and Michigan, this "growth" is sprawl.

Yet, this thin strip of beach towns pale in comparison to the development and growth of Warren and Butler Counties I-75 is quickly filling with, as you said, sprawl. Is this the same case with Estral Beach and the surrounding towns? Dayton benefits from GM and Wright-Patt and its numerous contractors. Toledo benefits from GM and Jeep. So somebody living there has a job. They just all happen to live in the suburbs. While University of Michigan may benefit the region, does it benefit the Toledo metro directly? Do numerous companies move to Toledo because U of M is in Ann Arbor? Yes, I'm a OSU fan, so sue me. It just seems a stretch, like me saying Dayton benefits from GE's engine plant in Cincinnati. And it's not like Dayton is lacking in high education. Even though they may not be the giant U of M is, Wright State and University of Dayton provide plenty of support to local employers.

Oh, as a side note. Dayton, please stop wasting your time fighting your now unconstitutional residency rules and fix your schools. Toledo does have Dayton there.

Originally Posted by Pilliod Njaim

I know I'm being harsh, but ALL Ohio cities have serious hurdles to overcome, and I doubt things will turn around without a complete loss of fresh water out West and down South. That would force people to move back to areas with adequate water resources.

I don't want this to turn into a fight over who's better. That's because you are right about each city having its hurdles. What I would like to point out is that even large, lucrative, and seemingly attractive cities like LA and Orlando have major problems to face. They too must deal with sprawl and problems in the inner city. Heck, even some of their suburbs have MAJOR problems.

I've heard some pretty bad things about water out there. Rumors of metros bullying other states and jurisdictions for their water. Then the large ranchers and farmers out west are left with nothing. But those are rumors and stories that I've only slightly paid attention too. Is it obvious my American, "Who cares if it's not me?" mentality has gotten the best of me?

Originally Posted by Pilliod Njaim

Ohio is a largely urbanized state, yet its cities are pitiful.
As I keep saying, the UrbanOhio guys are delusional: Ohio does not have hip cities and may never have them.

Certainly. I sometimes post on UrbanOhio, and everyone tends to paint a much rosier picture of their cities than reality. Even Columbus and Cincinnati, with stronger economies, are thoroughly ghettofied at the core and have seen mass population loss (30% since 1950 in old Columbus and 40% in Cincinnati). All this so-called "growth" is way out in the suburbs far removed from the central city. Ohio in general is in BAD shape. Columbus has just managed to cover it up by annexing suburbs. If you look at the 1950 boundaries (core 50 square miles) it's lost every bit as much as Toledo and Akron.

Job loss, brain drain, stagnant population growth (look at all the older cities), and serious PR problems plague the ENTIRE state. Ohio can't be cool. The media hates us, our only truly strong economy (Columbus with lots of people with graduate and professional degrees) is still Cowtown in most of America's eyes, and our other cities have serious gang, drug, or violent crime problems.

I've always said the state's obsession with football is a convenient way to divert attention away from its real problems.

Not true. I'll even use Columbus instead of Dayton as an example. Have you been to downtown Columbus, or short north, or any of the immediate areas surrounding downtown? With maybe the exception of City Center Mall (and just because its on Deadmalls.com means little if anything. So someone thinks its a crappy mall. boo hoo.) the place is more gentrified 10 years ago. Something similar is going on in Cincy but not at the same pace. Sure, some people have left. But most went with the white flight to the suburbs. The other cities only laugh because they can't look at their own problems. Go to suburban DC and look around (behind shopping centers) and see how many gangs roam their streets. The last time I checked, I did not have that problem here. What saddens me more is that I have family that used to live or still lives there. Until we can be at least someone optimistic about ourselves, we won't be able to laugh at others.

If you want to pout, be my guest, but you are not helping the situation.

[vader]

The thing about Toledo, Dayton, and even Akron is that theres just isnt any distingushing characteristic about them.And for the sake of fairness I wont even bring up Youngstown..Dayton kinda has the whole "Birth place of Aviation" thing going on but over all I just find these cities a bit bland. It doesnt mean thier bad places to live (as I do live in one). I think they would be big and vibrant to people from smaller towns or rural areas but they need to really build a stronger identity. Its almost pointless trying to debate which is better, in all honestly I dont know of two cities thats more similar than what Toledo is to Dayton. Both cities have been decimated by globalization, have slightly good things about them, and simply awful things about them.

In the future I think Dayton and Ciny will merge, and Toledo will probably hold its own because it has an untapped transportation hub that could be huge if utilized correctly. I stll think the only place worth settling down in Ohio is Columbus..And I say Columbus only when compared to other Midwestern cities. Ohio is just a retarted state, its like this places has a curse or something.

[Paddington]

Nearby Ft. Wayne is booming. What does it have that Toledo lacks? It's a decent, prosperous looking city with a lot of new construction. We should learn from them, rather than comparing ourselves to much bigger cities like Columbus.

[deannapenn]

I was born in Toledo. All my friends moved away years before I did. However, I'm not sure there is much else out there unless you are able to make lots of money and can move to a nice, peaceful location near a thriving city. (these kinds of places cost big bucks!)

I moved to the Milwaukee area and I wouldn't recommend it to the devil himself. It was been miserable. The area out of town is pretty, along the lake and into the hilly farmland areas (if you like to site see), but the people are most sullen, withdrawn with an insidious mean streak. It's really WEIRD. I've been back to Ohio to visit my family and am always surprised how FRIENDLY people are in comparison to here.

Don't have any illusions when you move (like we did). Check out your new community with a clear head. Otherwise, you'll be somewhere like I am, where the wages are lower and the cost of living higher.

[M TYPE X]

Compare Milwaukee to Cleveland, not Toledo.

Picking fights between Akron, Dayton, and Toledo is the Ohio "thing" to do (like Cleveland vs. Columbus vs. Cincy), but it gets you nowhere.
Insular infighting distinguishes Ohio, which is fine as long as Ohio remains a going enterprise ... Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Pennsylvania aren't interested in the pieces anyhow.

Toledo relies too much on GM and Chrysler-Jeep, and not enough on lowering taxes and building the freeway link to Columbus that it should have. Toledo is centrally located between Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Cleveland, and Columbus, yet it manages to not leverage its position.

[M TYPE X]

Originally Posted by wrightflyer

So you are basing the health of cities off of failing malls? Ha! If that were the case, every metro in this country would be a hollow shell.

No, mall failures are a symptom, not a cause.

Chrysler-Jeep sales data for June 2007: Chrysler Group Announces June 2007 U.S. Sales and International Sales Highlights (http://cgcomm.daimlerchrysler.com/documents.do?method=display&docType=pressrelease&d ocId=7008 - broken link)

Edmunds' ranking of most researched Jeep models:
Jeep Commander, Jeep Compass, Jeep Grand Cherokee, Jeep Liberty, Jeep Patriot, Jeep Wrangler, Jeep Commanders, Jeep Compasss, Jeep Grand Cherokees, Jeep Libertys, Jeep Patriots, Jeep Wranglers, new Jeep car prices at Edmunds (http://www.edmunds.com/new/jeep/index.html - broken link)

Pull up the Wikipedia pages on Jeep products. Jeep's Toledo presence relies on continued production of the Liberty and Wrangler. When the Wrangler's sales fall off, that will be a major hit for Toledo's status as a major industrial center for Chrysler-Jeep.

[wrightflyer]

The same goes for Dayton. We all worry about the GM Moraine plant which produces most of GM's mid-size SUV's. Thankfully, people continue to buy the things, otherwise, well you know.

Here's some basic plant info: GM Global Operations - U.S. Facilities (http://www.gmdynamic.com/company/gmability/environment/plants/facility_db/facility_summary.php?fID=125 - broken link)

I don't know if this is recent or not, but we all might want to start worrying: Edmunds.com Forecasts September Auto Sales: Mid-Size SUV Sales on the Rise

It seems every other week when I open some paper's Business or Money section, there's talk on SUV sales. On week they're up, the next they are going down. Talk about one h-e-"double l" of a ride!

Now,

Originally Posted by M TYPE X

No, mall failures are a symptom, not a cause.

Not always. Competition tends to be the main reason for a mall's failure. While it is true some malls fail from shifts in demographics (Arcade in Downtown Dayton), most are just replaced (Arcade in Downtown Dayton). Now, how can this be? Well, when people move to the suburbs, businesses follow the money. Thus, the "if you build it, they will come" mentality kicks into gear. Better yet, Northern Virginia with its endless line of sprawl and jobs has failed to keep the Landmark Mall healthy. It's not that the area is full of poor people. The customers just have so many choices that they tend to shop elsewhere, even when big name tenants arrive.

Southwyck: Now maybe there is a slight demographic shift in that part of Toledo? Plus with the opening of the Levi (I think that's it) Town Center in Perrysburg, maybe that side of Toledo just doesn't have enough customers to maintain that many malls? Perhaps its a bit of both? I'll leave that for further discussion. Just don't assume that every failing mall is a sign of a decaying area. Perhaps I didn't make myself clear. I never said it wasn't, only that it's not always the case.

[M TYPE X]

The TrailBlazer and clones are going to be on their way out. I don't know what GM has planned for Moraine after that.