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I'm an outsider, and not an economist, but... my best prediction would see a huge contraction of Britain's economy that would last years, and the prosperity of recent decades wouldn't return.
U.S. and other international firms have had it easy--they could set up offices in London, and use it as a launching pad for European operations. If there are different regulations and no more easy access to Europe's markets, then bye-bye London. Britain's loss would be Paris and Berlin's gain.
OTOH the pound would take a beating and stay low. There'd be many more American tourists in Britain. Property values in London might level off. Unemployment would rise, and there'd be a rapidly ageing population with few newcomers to the country to work and pay into the public safety net for pensioners.
OTOH the pound would take a beating and stay low. There'd be many more American tourists in Britain. Property values in London might level off. Unemployment would rise, and there'd be a rapidly ageing population with few newcomers to the country to work and pay into the public safety net for pensioners.
Can't beat American tourists........ I remember them well in the early 70s in London. Plaid jackets, and horn rimmed glasses. Rather loud voices.
Few newcomers huh? Waaaaaal, I guess we've got enough to last us a few years. They've started breeding as well you know. We'll be just fine........
The hang up is that you have to "be performing work for which qualified workers are not available in the United States." So if you are, say, someone who knows how to fix Lincrusta,* you get a visa. It's found in Victorian houses (I visit a lot of historic houses) and nobody in the US knows how to restore it.
Hutchinson indicated that a particularly attractive trading partner would offer things Britain lacks: abundant raw materials, abundant energy, and cheap food.
Interesting metaphor, a "hot new girlfriend".
Last edited by Tim Randal Walker; 06-21-2016 at 08:13 PM..
Hutchinson indicated that a particularly attractive trading partner would offer things Britain lacks: abundant raw materials, abundant energy, and cheap food.
Interesting metaphor, a "hot new girlfriend".
Sounds a bit like Canada. Well, Canada's in a free trade agreement with the U.S. and Mexico. We negotiated a free trade agreement between Canada and the EU recently.
Free trade between Canada and the UK? Hasn't even been pitched to us, never mind negotiated or signed.
The UK would be more isolated after Brexit than I think the citizens of the UK realize. A small number of businesses would do better after leaving the EU, sure. They can start lobbying parliament and implementing tariffs to block all those higher quality competitive products from the British market. Say goodbye to cheap imports. You'll be buying ersatz made-in-Britain substitutes instead. At a higher price.
I could be way wrong about Brexit, but I just don't see any way that it could be to Britain's benefit in the long run to leave the EU. I could see the UK Brexiting, then fading away even more into some quirky, isolationist, and very diminished international status.
Hutchinson indicated that a particularly attractive trading partner would offer things Britain lacks: abundant raw materials, abundant energy, and cheap food.
Interesting metaphor, a "hot new girlfriend".
How about an Anglosphere-Union between 5 nations, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States? The combined GDP is certainly larger than the European Union (with or without the UK).
I think the people see their lifestyle being eroded pension cuts and the dismantling of NHS that is the government policy but the money saved is going into the coffers of the EU and who knows where that money is being spent.
I think the people see their lifestyle being eroded pension cuts and the dismantling of NHS that is the government policy but the money saved is going into the coffers of the EU and who knows where that money is being spent.
and the bailouts of the countries who got themselves into a habble.
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I remember them well in the early 70s in London. Plaid jackets, and horn rimmed glasses. Rather loud voices.
It's the EB-3 visa, to wit:
