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Here in the Northeast and parts of the Midwest its starting to slow. White and Black flight are reversing themselves. Transit and Intercity Rail are being rebuilt all over the 2 regions. People are moving back to the cities in General , crime is going down in most Urban areas. So yes to a certain extent.
Auto centric sprawl will eventually come to a halt I believe. We're already starting to see the first stages of this now. As gas prices go up, and supply dwindles, over the next century you will see less and less development based around highways.
BUT
Let's not forget that railroads and interurbans created sprawl in the first place. Prior to cheap and long distance passenger railroads, all cities everywhere in America were confined to small physical areas. Contrary to popular belief, the mindset behind massive suburbanization started in the 1850s, not the 1950s. The only difference between then and what occurred in the late 20th century was there were more people in the 20th century who could afford to move to the suburbs and the method of getting there. The idea of having a large house with a big yard/land has been around for a long time, it just wasn't economically feasible for most people until the mid-20th. The auto industry and land developers are definitely culpable in the creation of sprawl, but it's not like people had a gun to their head forcing them to move to the suburbs and exurbs.
On the other hand, you must keep in mind that living in big cities before pretty much sucked. Overcrowding, pollution, and substandard housing conditions conditioned people to believe that moving out the suburbs was a step up in the world and for the most part they were right. I know the cool thing on C-D is to dream of living in a super dense city, but just go to a place that has hyper density (no city exists in the United States currently) and try living there for while. Places like Mumbai or Manila are like the American cities of old....full of grime, poor sanitation, disease, AND you have like 1000 people living on top of you. Just go to any one of those cities and take a look at their slums and you'll know why the first place they head when they immigrate to America is straight to the suburbs.
There are however downsides to living in the suburbs too. Lack of community vibrancy, destruction of natural habitat, being forced to drive everywhere which turn destroys your health.
What I see taking shape in the future is melding of the best of both worlds in American. We have the technology now to avoid most of the downsides of city living, and engineering capability to build housing that meets both the density requirements of the city and the spaciousness requirements we've come to expect.
Hooray! Finally someone who read the history book and discovered that suburbs did not suddenly spring up after WW II. I recently took a tour of an affluent Chicago suburb and found that it started as a summer retreat because when your windows were open the smell of the stockyards and steel mills was overwhelming. So they took the train to work during the summer. I know one of the posters called mass transit evil (though using different terminology). But anyone who has driven the "Ike" from Schaumburg to Chicago in an hour will appreciate the 40-minute express train and opportunity to do things besides fight traffic. And in New Mexico you can now commute by train from Belen to Santa Fe (about 100 miles) for about $1100 a year. In Spain, they built a High Speed line and after it went into operation homebuilding at the stop 100 miles from Madrid took off. I guess affordable housing only an hour out was a powerful draw.
Last edited by pvande55; 06-23-2010 at 06:15 PM..
Reason: close parenthesis
I agree. Basically, it doesn't matter how far it is from a city's center to its most distant suburbs. Often times, these satellite communities, or "exurbs", are relatively self-sufficient, providing jobs, shopping, recreation and whatnot. Many exurbanites don't even bother going into the big city. So what you end up with, in larger metros, is an expanding outer ring with plenty of momentum-- and no growth restraints.
I agree. Basically, it doesn't matter how far it is from a city's center to its most distant suburbs. Often times, these satellite communities, or "exurbs", are relatively self-sufficient, providing jobs, shopping, recreation and whatnot. Many exurbanites don't even bother going into the big city. So what you end up with, in larger metros, is an expanding outer ring with plenty of momentum-- and no growth restraints.
that's how it is in Metro Orlando, most jobs are not in the CBD. The lake nona medical city is a perfect example of one of those self sufficient satelite communities.
Location: northern Vermont - previously NM, WA, & MA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hsw
Suburbs tend to be more efficient and cheaper settings to build both new office campuses and single-family homes for middle-income workers
Most of the world's most profitable companies (and employers) have their HQs and regional offices in distant suburbs, not in cities...and factories in less urban, cheaper regions of Southern, non-unionized US or China
Mobile computing and videoconferencing are allowing increasing amts of telecommuting and less need for business travel for face-to-face mtgs
Online shopping makes much of bricks-and-mortar retailing useless
Truly eco-conscious, tech-savvy folks really have no need to ever travel for an energy&money-wasting vacation, when have a new suburban home w/competent HVAC and a yard...and a computer to do virtual tours of globe via GoogleStreetView...can watch sports on TV, not at some costly, energy-consuming stadium or golf course...can read/surf anything on one's iPad
Mass transit is incredibly costly, inefficient, unsafe and uncomfortable for any modern US commuter and taxpayer w/a real job and 2-3 cars in his suburban garage for whatever driving needs....and airplanes should be stuff of profit-seeking business travel, certainly not for discretionary tourism
Suspect US has many, many decades of cheap fuel remaining and tons of land around key suburban corridors, as can always teardown obsolete offices/houses/shops and build new-tech offices and houses in desirable, efficient locales
Eco/urban planning doomsayers neither understand basic economics and business...nor implications of continually advancing mobile computing on ways employers, taxpayers and workers commute, work, live, play, shop, study, etc....as opposed to welfare recipients, unions and community organizers who predominate in highly populated, older cities who are (naturally) some of biggest advocates of taxpayer-subsidized communal housing and mass transit
Is it not costly to build more freeeways, upgrade road infrastructure, and operate lightpoles and traffic signals? Hmm, everyone stays home to watch the game now? That must be the reason why Dallas just spent close to 1 billion dollars for a new NFL stadium for the Cowboys. Online shopping has made malls and stores obsolete? The parking lots look pretty full to me. Oh yeah why take a blissfull vacation to the beach to relax, why bother hike a mountain, I can just watch it on youtube or view it on google earth. In fact why not just work, shop, and do everything at home and become a big lardass?
You seem to be under the impression that land is limitless and the suburbs are a free for all for building without restriction. You lack of forethought might have been suitable in the 70's, 80's, and 90's but get real.
Economics will play a role in the decline of sprawl. I believe it will happen and peak oil and the depletion of natural resources will be the key. The cost of building and maintaining a suburban infrastructure will be become more difficult as time goes on due to the cost of materials. The price of resources will rise with the development of China, India and other developing nations. Only a small percent of people in those countries drive and own cars(less than 10%). As their economies grow they will demand more resources thus the prices will rise making it more difficult for us to have a sprawling lifestyle of 2500 sq ft homes and two cars in the garage. Also, factor in our declining standard of living and a shrinking middle class which will result in less demand for far flung living. The U.S. population is projected to increase from the current 304 million to over 450 million by 2050. The majority of the development in the next 50 years will be within the existing metro areas and I expect that mass transit will begin to play a greater role. I expect to see a great deal of development around transit stations and an increase in higher density living. The days of unabated sprawl are in the beginning stages of decline.
Sprawl shmawl, pollution this, crime that, blah blah blah. Treating the symptoms will never cure humanity's disease. This country, along with every other country on the planet, desperately needs zero population growth more than anything else at this point.
yes, Will see what happens when gas prices hit $6 a gallon.
For people who live in the suburbs and work downtown, gas prices are a big factor. But what about people who live AND work in the suburbs? They don't make the long daily commute into the central city, so $6/gallon gas isn't going to make them want to move closer to downtown. In fact, it's going to keep them in the 'burbs so their commute is relatively cheaper.
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