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I define sprawl as the unbalanced growth in land absorption vis-a-vis population. That is to say that we have been growing our physical limits faster than our population since WWII. This has caused the sprawl we have been experiencing across America.
I think we will see the day when more American cities will grow their populations faster than their land absorption. This trend will reduce sprawl but it won't eliminate the physical growth of cities themselves.
Location: The land of sugar... previously Houston and Austin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by caphillsea77
It is a 120 mile corridor of sprawl along I-5 and 405, due to topographical features, unlike Houston and Dallas which has low density sprawl in every direction.
Houston has a bay to the east/southeast, so can't expand that way.
Since "sprawl" is a continuous expansion of suburbia, what we're really discussing here is actually "will suburbia ever stop growing?"
As with many other things in life, I see a cycle at play. During the 1800's and the early 1900's, rural America was the center of life in the U.S. Then, in the mid-20th century years, fueled by industry and big business, the cities dominated. By the mid-1950's-- partly due to the creation of our national interstate highway system-- the suburbs began luring people out of the big cities. Now, in the new millenium, the exurbs are booming. These outer-tier suburban areas are semi-rural in nature.
So, it seems obvious to me that "the cycle" is eventually going to come full-circle. The appeal of rural life is slowly returning. I predict that rural America is poised to make a comeback.
I'm not interested in living in a sprawly rural America. But, I have no problem with it IF people are willing to use their excess land for something more than cultivating a lawn.
Since "sprawl" is a continuous expansion of suburbia, what we're really discussing here is actually "will suburbia ever stop growing?"
As with many other things in life, I see a cycle at play. During the 1800's and the early 1900's, rural America was the center of life in the U.S. Then, in the mid-20th century years, fueled by industry and big business, the cities dominated. By the mid-1950's-- partly due to the creation of our national interstate highway system-- the suburbs began luring people out of the big cities. Now, in the new millenium, the exurbs are booming. These outer-tier suburban areas are semi-rural in nature.
So, it seems obvious to me that "the cycle" is eventually going to come full-circle. The appeal of rural life is slowly returning. I predict that rural America is poised to make a comeback.
You might be on to something here. Also technology allows people to be connected more and with things like telecommuting allows people to live in more rural settings and have good employment. The decentralization of work is changing how urban/suburban/exurban/rural areas work. Also have to consider places outside of major metros as more desireable, from smaller metros all the way down to rural areas (especially if they aren't too far from making occaisonal large town or city trips).
It would also be interesting if this follows with revitilization of downtowns in towns and cities of 5k-50k much like what happened with large cities.
The mass-producing home builders that build most of suburbs are nearsighted. These homes are built purely with the bottom-line in mind and will look much less desirable when they aren't fresh anymore. Many of them have problems from the beginning. The next wave of buyers of these used suburban homes may be people who buy for cheapness- as cities gentrify and poor people move outward- and won't have the time, funds or give a damn to up-keep an unnecessarily sized house and yard. Subdivisions and 'burbs are built to have perception of freshness- it won't last. For young people with money, it's all about interesting, well built housing availability, transportation options, proximity to interesting bars, restaurants and shops, and an overall sense of community. With the exception of a few suburbs, this doesn't happen on the periphery; suburbs have a lot or re-zoning and catching up to do in order to attract a new crowd.
The mass-producing home builders that build most of suburbs are nearsighted. These homes are built purely with the bottom-line in mind and will look much less desirable when they aren't fresh anymore. Many of them have problems from the beginning. The next wave of buyers of these used suburban homes may be people who buy for cheapness- as cities gentrify and poor people move outward- and won't have the time, funds or give a damn to up-keep an unnecessarily sized house and yard. Subdivisions and 'burbs are built to have perception of freshness- it won't last. For young people with money, it's all about interesting, well built housing availability, transportation options, proximity to interesting bars, restaurants and shops, and an overall sense of community. With the exception of a few suburbs, this doesn't happen on the periphery; suburbs have a lot or re-zoning and catching up to do in order to attract a new crowd.
I am thinking suburban redevelopment is going to be a larger trend overall. Partially due to many of them are now over 50 years old now. That and cities and counties will want to redevelop denser in these places to get more revenue.
I think sprawl is uncontrollable because the government wants it, developers want it, and most importantly a very large percentage of the American population wants it. The only way sprawl would stop is if the United States experienced an economic stock crash. That could either slow down or stop sprawl, at least temporarily. Only then would that shock the common American and the US government into re-thinking their priorities. Only at that time of great catastophy and struggle would people be malleable enough to accept a solution to save them from their fears, hopefully one that has very strong enviornmental safeguards in place. If people know that U.S. based system of capitalism fails, they will demand a different solution. Maybe the United Nations could step up onto the plate and introduce a new form of economy worldwide, that would put the enviornment as the number one priority, thus ending sprawl forever, perhaps even reversing it. I know this sounds like a movie but to me it seems plausible.
If an economic stock crash doesn't happen, I do not think it is realistically possible that the U.S. government could stop sprawl even if they wanted to. People would be extremely angry if the federal government passed a law stating there are to be no new subdivision development. Not to mention the oil and development companies would also be very angry as well.
Short of an economic stock crash happening or the federal government passing a law, they could impose a higher taxes on all people living in suburban developments or stop funding and subsidizing them. But even that would be a very hard sell and it would be unlikely to pass.
It seems to be an impossible situation because sprawl is wanted by many Americans and preserving the enviornment is anti-thetical to the American way of life. Only if you stop the American way of life can you stop sprawl and save the enviornment and 99% of Americans are not willing to do that.
Last edited by X72; 07-20-2010 at 01:28 AM..
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