Will TriMet light rail ever come to Vancouver?

[Disgustedman]

Originally Posted by FSF

No doubt it all has to do with money and politics but it's WA that needs that bridge more than OR so I would think they would try to play along to some extent.

What makes you think that?

[StealthRabbit]

Work from home + Portland Business exodus will ease commute traffic. (Just got notification that Fidelity Investment Downtown office is now closed and will be moving to Vancouver). Several friends with businesses in Portland have had to close. (5) friends from work chose to abandon their Portland homes in upscale neighborhoods and flee to Vancouver (for safety of family + better schools) They hope to someday return.

We will probably have flying cars before we get the I-5 Bridge resolved.

[texasdiver]

Originally Posted by FSF

No doubt it all has to do with money and politics but it's WA that needs that bridge more than OR so I would think they would try to play along to some extent.

Originally Posted by Disgustedman

What makes you think that?

The politics have changed in the past 10 years and there are a variety of mixed and conflicting incentives and interests at play. This is not an OR vs WA issue, especially anymore.

Both the states of OR and WA (at the state government level) are interested in mobility along the I-5 corridor between California and Canada and especially between Portland and Seattle. Since Oregon torpedoed it's own container terminals it needs increased access to Puget Sound ports.

The Portland metro area (on the Oregon side) is interested in decreasing traffic and congestion and pollution from the ever-growing suburbs and Portland especially is not interested in subsidizing more sprawl on the outer fringes of the metro area that are not sustainable without massive highway subsidies and reliance on cars. They have ZERO interest in accommodating increased out-of-state suburban commuter car traffic from Vancouver and beyond

Clark County (at least the majority elected Republicans holding office) is interested in growth and increased development and sprawl across the county. Which is why so much effort is being put into expanding the urban growth boundaries and facilitating real estate development in the outer fringe cities like Ridgefield, Battle Ground, Hockinson, Camas, etc. But to be viable long term, all this increased single family home development is going to require increased car access into Portland, which is the very thing that Portlanders do not want to see.

The question is, who has the upper hand? The state governments in OR and WA, the local government in Portland, or the local government in Clark County? Ten years ago the local government in Clark County had a veto power over the bridge project by virtue of GOP control over the WA State Senate where they torpedoed the first bridge expansion at the urging and pressure of Clark County GOP politicians.

Today that power balance has COMPLETELY shifted.

In both WA and OR the governorships and state legislatures are all in Democratic hands and both state legislatures are dominated by urban Portland and urban Puget Sound legislators who are generally pro transit and anti suburban sprawl and highways. Clark County's Republican state representatives and Senators no longer have any influence at all in Olympia.

In Congress (which will provide much of the purse strings) the House is now controlled by Democrats which means that Oregon/Portland Congressman Earl Blumenauer on the Ways and Means committee literally holds the purse strings for this project. He is basically the father of light rail in Portland from his time in Portland and Multnomah county politics and heads the bike and pro-transit caucuses in Congress. Jaime Herrera Beutler, the Congresswoman from Vancouver is now a minority back bencher with zero clout in Congress as the minority party has basically zero pull in the House of Representatives. So what she thinks or does is irrelevant. She might hold lots of town halls in Clark County where people vent about the bridge and light rail. But she has zero ability to do anything other than get people riled up. It is Earl Blumenauer and not Jaime Hererra Beutler who will determine the shape of this project in Congress.

In the Senate, all four Senators from OR and WA are liberal Democrats who support mass transit Ron Wyden, Jeff Merkeley, Patty Murray, and Maria Cantwell. Clark Country Republicans who want to get someone's ear in the Senate would have to drive over to Idaho to lobby Mark Crappo, who by custom and tradition is not going to intervene in some local political fight outside his region.

Clark County Republican bridge and transit opponents have zero influence in either state government or in Congress where this project is going to be decided and funded. And do not even control any of the purse strings of their own as this will be an entirely Federal and state project with no shared funding from the County or city of Vancouver. And, in fact, I suspect the actual city of Vancouver is probably in favor or at least not opposed to improved transit access to Portland. It is the county government dominated by conservative rural county commissioners who are going to be most opposed.

So what do I expect to happen? There will be a lot of noise from Clark County conservatives about the transit components of future bridge projects in local press and at local public meetings. Their big talking point is going to be Bus Rapid Transit over Light Rail. They have already signaled that. And they like it precisely because it DOESN'T seamless connect with existing transit on the OR side of the river. Which they see as a benefit not a flaw.

But the actual project will be driven largely by both state governments and their departments of transportation and the funding that they can obtain from Congress. And it will absolutely have a rail component without question because they know that the idea of ever having any sort of rail transit at all in Clark County in the next 50 years depends entirely on having a bridge designed for light rail. And this is probably the only new bridge across the Columbia that will get built in the next 50 years. Whatever you think about light rail, it is what the tri-country region on the OR side of the river has decided to invest in for the past 40 years. No amount of holding your breath until your face turns red by Clark County conservatives is going to change that. Rail is going to be the price for increased car access to Portland from Vancouver. They had the chance many times over the years to participate in and help direct the direction of transit in the Portland area and have continually chosen not to do so. So now they are faced with a metro transit infrastructure that was built entirely without their participation and will find out that the price of a new bridge across the Columbia is to join in and participate in the existing regional transit infrastructure. I also expect it to be a fairly crummy and less than ideal project, not because of political compromise. But because of budget realities in a post-Covid world of ginormous budget deficits and less money to spend on these sorts of big infrastructure projects. So maybe punch rail just across the bride to downtown Vancouver or Clark College and nowhere else because the money simply isn't available.

Note: I'm not arguing what I think SHOULD happen. Just what I think WILL happen given the political forces and balance of power in this region.