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More Clues for the Upcoming Fall and Winter
July 12, 2013; 9:08 AM
Great swimming/boating/fishing weather next week in the east
Much of eastern Canada will experience above- to much above-normal temperatures from Monday through Thursday next week as a strong ridge of high pressure aloft builds across the region and forces the jet stream well to the north.
This ridge will also keep a pretty good lid on thunderstorm activity as the air aloft will be warm, which prevents clouds from growing into big thunderstorms during the day.
However, there will still be some spotty late-afternoon thunderstorms across Ontario and Quebec during the period, especially where large lake breezes interact with a land breeze. Any thunderstorms that do form will be slow-movers with the potential for heavy, localized rainfall.
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More long-range forecast clues for the upcoming fall and winter
The U.S. based Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released an update of their experimental NMME, which is a multi-model ensemble forecast which goes out into the winter. We also have the IMME (international based multi-model) forecast for the upcoming fall, but not the winter quite yet.
Below are the predicted temperature and precipitation anomalies for the fall and winter. Again, these are useful tools, but certainly do not treat these as gospel. Model performance drops significantly going out two months and beyond, but the science is getting better and the development of a multi-model ensemble is great idea.
NMME temperature forecast for fall 2013
NMME precipitation forecast for fall 2013
IMME temperature forecast for fall 2013
IMME precipitation forecast for fall 2013
NMME temperature forecast for winter 2013-14
NMME precipitation forecast for winter 2013-14
By the way, AccuWeather.com will be issuing our own fall 2013 forecast in August.
After the last two rather warm Autumns I have to believe we in the southeast are due for a more cool October and November! I am counting down the days until my pumpkins have frost on them! of course now in late July they are just sprouts!
Southeast Michigan: Fall 2013-Winter-Spring 2014, Southeast Michigan: Normal October then a colder than normal November and early December, with blustery snow flurry activity, heavy on one or two occasions, but little else. January first to end of Feb much drier then normal - especially February, with temps just a little above normal. No accumulating snow. Windy periods in Feb and April. Warmer then normal first two weeks of March (quite nice) but then a cool period with the only storm system all winter in the last two weeks of March - snow confined to central and northern lower - maybe an ice storm somewhere between Grand Rapids and Toronto. Slop storm in the southern part (blast of heavy wet snow that changes to sleet then rain). Most of the time, a quiescent persistent zonal flow for April and May which means little if any severe weather and temps about average with little variation from normal. No frost after April 10th or so. June will start out cool in the eastern part of the peninsula with no 80-ish humid weather likely until nearly June 15th. The only notable event for late April to mid June - a strong "northeaster" style rainstorm (strong rogue Low tracking from western KY to NE Ohio - unusual for this time of year) could bring heavy rain, and strong northeast winds which could cause lake shore flooding on the west shore of Lake Erie and south and southwest shores of Lake St Clair. If the winter pans out as described, there is a 60% chance of this happening.
In general, the only distinctive features of this next winter is well below normal snow, and a near record dry Feb; possible "nor'easter" in mid to late spring. Predictions, as always, based on the weather patterns from June to Sept 1st the preceding year - based on 50 yrs of predicting; right more than half the time.
Certainly nothing to write home about. Leave the snow plow back in the corner of the garage - you won't need it. But if you live on the shore line of western Lake Erie...have sandbags ready by next spring - especially if lake levels rise by the end of the year, which I think they will.
Last edited by TwinbrookNine; 09-03-2013 at 12:35 PM..
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Have nothing to say, really.
