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2000: 22th of December
2001: 9th of December
2002: 9th of December
2003: 24th of December
2004: 12th of December
2005: 24th of November
2006: 28th of December
2007: 29th of November
2008: 28th of December
2009: 14th of December
2010: 10th of December
2011: 17th of November
2012: 10th of December
2013: 13th of December
The average first ice day for the past 14 years is 11th of December, but I'll go with something a bit later this year.
2013: 14 December
2012: 29 November
2011: 1 January 2012
2010: 18 November
2009: 9 November
2008: 22 November
2007: 4 November
2006: 2 November
2005: 17 November
2004: 17 November
2003: 22 October
So most usually in mid-November, pretty much as I thought.
For Pittsburgh Intl the 1981 to 2010 avg first high <= 0C is 1 Dec. Earliest is 3 Nov 1951 and latest is 31 Jan 1932, the latter occurring at the downtown station. However, since the station moved away from dwtn, the latest is 2 Jan 2012. Coldest forecast high until Friday is only 3C, so given that it takes ~2 weeks for typhoons recurving away from Japan to send
the remnants of Nuri, I'm waiting until the 17th to 24th of this month.
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