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freezing line at 850mb has entered into the U.S this morning. Normal is +8C over MN so it's below normal even for them!
Yup... Balloon Launch from International Falls shows the 850mb temp was indeed near 0C this morning there. Look at the map. Perfectly depicted by the RAP model. It was below freezing just to their East.
Long Range Pattern Clues into October
September 11, 2015; 10:39 AM ET
Below is my latest interpretation of the weekly ECMWF forecast model with added input from the CFSv2 and current observations.
No signs of any sustained chill across a large part of southern Canada into the first half of October
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