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If El Nino brings in that pineapple express into the west coast, it may indeed kill it. This is EXACTLY the set up that would be needed to destroy the warm blob
Global warming is a real phenomenon, and humans are partly responsible imho. However I don't think we have a good understanding of long term natural variability when it comes to decadal cycles of the oceans.
Regional climate model forecasts are a big joke.
I mean seriously? In 15 years I'm going to have winters like Missouri and summers like Arkansas?
And the EPA published a similar study a few years later, but the pushed back the migrations of the climate until 2050 instead of 2030 when they realized that the earlier projections weren't going to happen
Could it be the season of major storms? We already got the first one going this week (early Aug)... have to see if this is the pattern for fall/winter. Couple major blocking (negative NAO) with a negative AO means the arctic hounds will be released.
They fail every year. What I find strange is how Bastardi latches onto it when it shows cold anomaly for winter, and disavows it when it is warm. Shows his bias.
They fail every year. What I find strange is how Bastardi latches onto it when it shows cold anomaly for winter, and disavows it when it is warm. Shows his bias.
Funny how you're more active in this upcoming winter thread then the current Summer thread. Come on Tom, come out of the Cold closet and admit you're a cold lover.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Infamous92
I read somewhere a while back that we were close to having a mild winter, I think it really could've went either way (but that's always the case).
Close in what way? December 2014 was top 10 warmest for here, there was only 2 months left. Beginning of January wasn't cold either so time was running out...very close to having a warm winter in that sense I guess... And I'm sure we can find something that had changed that led us into the winter we had and if that hadn't changed we would of ended up with a warm winter.. Too tired to look now. lol Probably related to my next post
Steve D discussion this morning... Too awesome & detailed to pick what to post so will put in quote tags. So if you're at the beach, or on your couch, forget the book... read on and learn.. and realize this guy explains the Physics of weather. Stratosphere is our driver and all because of the sun.
Quote:
There has been a lot of talk about this image above which shows high latitude blocking being the second strongest since 1950. Statistics shows that there is a high probability of high latitude blocking or a -AO/-NAO phase in the DJF period when the Summer exhibits this type of signature. However, statistics can be created by noise rather than grounded in actual mechanisms in the atmosphere. Personally, I don’t like leaning on a winter forecast with these statistics. They are helpful in growing confidence but I always ask, what is the physical connection. After all, physics does not care about your statistics or how we use them. So I decided to dig deeper. The two years that matched this Summer’s anomalies in the recent past is the Summers of 2009 and 2010. So, I dived into the observations and I found a clue in the stratosphere!
In 2009 we experienced declining solar activity and a moderate to strong El Nino. In 2010 we experienced low solar activity and a weakening El Nino state. Of the two years, 2009 is the closest match however I included 2010 in case the El Nino this year weakens faster than forecasted, which is a possibility given observations and the latest models suggest a peak in intensity in mid October of this El Nino.
We are focusing on the Summer anomalies to match the high latitude influences. In 2009 we had a weak QBO state, stratospheric temperatures at 50 mb to 70 mb were near normal for the most part. The weakening QBO helped to sustain the high latitude blocking and the near normal stratosphere at times pushed to slightly above normal.
During the summer of 2010, the sun was still very quiet. Note the stratosphere was warmer with some periods of above normal anomalies. Overall the stratosphere was near to slightly above normal between 50 and 70 MB. This Summer also features a weak QBO state as well.
Now, let’s look at this year!
Based on the latest stratospheric observations. The stratosphere is at record warmth. In fact, the stratosphere has been above normal between 50 and 70 MB all summer. In fact, all Summer the stratosphere from 5 MB to 100 MB has averaged near to above normal since June. The only part of the stratosphere running below normal is at 1 MB.
The stratosphere is clearly under the influence of a weakening solar influence which has seen sun spots still more frequent than 2009 and 2010 but those sun spots have been VERY weak and have had produced little in the way of energy to break down the ozone in the stratosphere, which by the way is WELL above normal over eastern North America, the northern Atlantic, and around the Aleutian Islands. Go figure.
Meanwhile, the once strong QBO has crashed this Summer but is jumping into the weak yet positive range at 30 MB. At this point, I am starting to doubt that the QBO is a driver in the weather pattern but rather just an enhancing mechanism much like adding fuel cleaner in your tank. Doesn’t make your car go faster, but helps keep the engine clean. There wasn’t much of a connection in 2009, 2010, or last winter in terms of the QBO and prevention of winter storms.
So what we have found this morning is that in previous environments where the stratosphere was near to slightly above normal, the atmosphere responded with enhanced high latitude blocking in the Summer. In those years where there was low solar activity and thus a warm stratosphere, those conditions appeared to continue into the cold season months. What we found is the mechanism for driving high latitude blocking in the atmospheric state for right now. Based on observations from previous winters, this state is likely to continue. However, that does not guarantee a cold and stormy winter, but does increase the potential.
This morning we have jumped beyond statistics and uncovered the physical properties of the atmosphere that caused the events of 2009 and 2010. To reduce size of this discussion I left out 62/63 however observations, although poor, suggested similar atmospheric conditions.
Now that we uncovered the driver here, the rest is easy. Now we observe. As the sun becomes more quiet, we will watch the temperatures at 10 MB to 70 MB. Remember, the key is to get a warm stratospheric environment at 70 MB to influence the tropospheric synoptic pattern.
Finally, in case you are wondering why a warm stratosphere is important. I will refresh your memory. A warm stratosphere expands, as warm air masses do, but obviously can not expand into space. As such, the stratosphere presses down on the troposphere. The troposphere in response, contracts and cools. This leads to below normal 500 MB heights where the stratosphere is warmest. In this case, the warmer stratosphere is found around eastern North America, the northern Atlantic, and northern Pacific. To balance out these below normal heights, above normal heights develop towards the North Pole. Thus, high latitude blocking is born! I should note, that there have been cases where the warmest stratospheric anomalies shifted to China or Europe, like in 2006, leading to less than favorable conditions for cold and stormy weather conditions for the Eastern United States.
This is why this evolution, though promising for snow lovers, is no slam dunk.
Funny how you're more active in this upcoming winter thread then the current Summer thread. Come on Tom, come out of the Cold closet and admit you're a cold lover.
Close in what way? December 2014 was top 10 warmest for here, there was only 2 months left. Beginning of January wasn't cold either so time was running out...very close to having a warm winter in that sense I guess... And I'm sure we can find something that had changed that led us into the winter we had and if that hadn't changed we would of ended up with a warm winter.. Too tired to look now. lol Probably related to my next post
I meant "almost" as far as teleconnections go, but North America has 76535899 of them to deal with, which is hell for forecasters, but it makes things interesting and unpredictable. December '14 was excellent (60's on Xmas!!), but I had a feeling we weren't out of the woods, and that turned out to be true, but I don't think anyone expected February to be as extreme as it was.
Relaying CG post here... Go to 7:15 in video to start the winter talk. Too much about the typhoon before that
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge
Good video, August could be warm for me, and last few minutes of the video, Joe talks about latest Euro, winter might be colder and snowier for east coast. Analogs 1) 86-87', 2)09/10', 3)57/58', 73/73', 82/83, 97/98' with Feb-Mar being worst of winter
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Come on Tom, come out of the Cold closet and admit you're a cold lover. 
