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The general tendency is for this trough to take on a negative tilt (a NW-to-SE configuration), with upper-level ridging becoming stronger off New England. All else being equal, this would tend to result in a more northwesterly path for Joaquin. Complicating the forecast is the presence of several areas of disturbed weather, including the remnants of Invest 99L (now over northern Florida); Invest 90L (incorporating the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida); and a frontal zone across the Northeast that will produce torrential rain...
The model guidance from 12Z Tuesday shows two main possibilities by Days 5 and 6. The HWRF, GFDL, and UKMET models all depict a hurricane heading toward the mid-Atlantic by this weekend, tucking into the north side of the negatively tilted trough. In contrast, the ECMWF and GFS models show Joaquin heading out to the open Atlantic well before approaching the U.S. East Coast, as the trough pushes Joaquin eastward rather than pulling it into its northeast side. Various members of the ECMWF and GFS model ensembles have a wide range of solutions (see Figure 7 at right). Given the complexity of the factors involved, it is far too soon to put too much stock in any particular model solution.
No.. GFS does not go OTS. In fact I'm looking at the run that just came out right now, didnt even finish loading.. Yikes... Hurricane hits Maryland/Virginia. Then it stops and turns Northeast.
Insane! Bit of a inner conflict occurring right now. The weather geek part of me wants that storm to hit but the humanitarian inside me knows it would bring damage and sadness
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