La Nina coming 2016-2017...but when (sweater, snow, warm, record)

[CH86]

NAO will likely be negative this year; a tripole has formed and has gradually become more defined over the summer. AO seems to be positive (doesn't warm arctic SSTs mean a positive AO?)

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

A positive AMO promotes a negative NAO, which increases chances for Nor'easters

NAO negative can also spread wicked cold into Europe.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by CH86

NAO will likely be negative this year; a tripole has formed and has gradually become more defined over the summer. AO seems to be positive (doesn't warm arctic SSTs mean a positive AO?)

A negative NAO can also greatly impact winter in Europe. Wasn't the NAO mostly positive in winter 2013-14 and hence Europe was very warm while we were very cold. Our cold was due to the PNA and blob.

Maybe this winter we will share the cold with Europe. Hence maybe slightly better than 2014 as the cold will split between us lol. I'd rather that than all the cold on us again.

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

Just about every year has land falling hurricanes, and we get back ended summers without Nina. They are saying no Nina cause it can't seem to happen with current SST.

Back-loaded summers seem to be far more common in developing Niñas. Front-loaded summers are favored by fading Niñas and Niños. I will list what I consider to be back-loaded summers, from memory, and color them blue and red. Black for neutral:

1970
1973
1983
1985
1989
1995
2001
2005
2007
2010
2014
2015
2016??

Front-loaded summers
1969
1971 (fading Niña)
1974
1976
1979
1981
1986
1994 (fading Niña)
1996 (fading Niña)
1997
2000 (fading Niña)
2003
2008 (fading Niña)
2011
2012
2013

[jbgusa]

I have moved some around from earlier post and would like comments from those that remember New York summers differently.

Back-loaded summers seem to be far more common in developing Niñas. Front-loaded summers are favored by fading Niñas and Niños. I will list what I consider to be back-loaded summers, from memory, and color them blue and red. Black for neutral. And not all summers made list:

Back-Loaded summers (most 90+ weather from August through September)
1970
1972 (summer did start in mid-July, went through two weekends after Labor Day with 92)
1985
1989
2001
2005
2007
2014
2015
2016??

Front-loaded summers (most 90+ weather from April/May - July)
1969
1971 (fading Niña)
1974
1977 (failed Niño transition)
1981
1984 (weak Niña)
1986
1994 (fading Niña/developing Niño)
1997
2000 (fading Niña)
2003
2008 (fading Niña)
2011
2012
2013

Cool Summers Wire to Wire (not many 90's)
1976 (one spring heat wave and minor heat wave)
1979 (one spring heat wave and minor heat wave)
1982 (one minor heat wave)
1992 (one spring heat wave and minor heat wave)
1996 (fading Niña)
2000 (fading Niña)
2003
2004
2009

Hot Summers Wire to Wire (lots of 90's through June-August, sometimes September)
1973 (early June heat wave and then roaster at end of August/beginning of September, 98 twice)
1980 (failed Niño transition) (use blue because ensuing winter had weak Niña characteristics)
1983
1987 (some front loading but 90's well into August)
1988
1991
1993
1995
1999
2002
2010

[majstoric17]

CFS now shows average december in America and Europe
If we focus on anomalies like -0.4 in December and if we know that last winter was in El Nino phase, only two winters are same as next winter: winter 2005/06 and winter 1983/84.
Winter 1983/84: little warmer.
December 1983 in Middle Europe: 1.12. - 19.12. = cold with little snow ( max 10 cm), 20.12. - 31.12. = warm.
January 1984: warmer than average. The second part of January 1984. was better with little snow ( max 10 cm).
February 1984: average. Second part of February 1984. was great with a lot of snow (max 40 cm)
March 1984: little snow in the first part of March. (max 5 cm)

Winter 2005/06: average winter
December 2005: average without greater amounts of snow (27.12.= 10 cm)
January 2006: colder than average, but snowless.
February 2006: little warmer than average without greater amounts of snow in the first part. The end of February was great with 20 cm of snow.
March 2006: two periods of snow (3.3. - 6.3.) and (14.3.- 17.3.) with 20 cm of snow.

Similar situations: december average without greater amounts of snow, February: cold and snowy in the second part, March: snow in the first part. January: much warmer with little snow or cold and dry.
December and February were similar, but January did not. I don't know what we can expect from January, but I am sure that February will be snowy in the second part.

I don't know how was situation in America in those winters.
Someone knows that?

[muslim12]

Originally Posted by majstoric17

CFS now shows average december in America and Europe
If we focus on anomalies like -0.4 in December and if we know that last winter was in El Nino phase, only two winters are same as next winter: winter 2005/06 and winter 1983/84.
Winter 1983/84: little warmer.
December 1983 in Middle Europe: 1.12. - 19.12. = cold with little snow ( max 10 cm), 20.12. - 31.12. = warm.
January 1984: warmer than average. The second part of January 1984. was better with little snow ( max 10 cm).
February 1984: average. Second part of February 1984. was great with a lot of snow (max 40 cm)
March 1984: little snow in the first part of March. (max 5 cm)

Winter 2005/06: average winter
December 2005: average without greater amounts of snow (27.12.= 10 cm)
January 2006: colder than average, but snowless.
February 2006: little warmer than average without greater amounts of snow in the first part. The end of February was great with 20 cm of snow.
March 2006: two periods of snow (3.3. - 6.3.) and (14.3.- 17.3.) with 20 cm of snow.

Similar situations: december average without greater amounts of snow, February: cold and snowy in the second part, March: snow in the first part. January: much warmer with little snow or cold and dry.
December and February were similar, but January did not. I don't know what we can expect from January, but I am sure that February will be snowy in the second part.

I don't know how was situation in America in those winters.
Someone knows that?

For me, 1983-1984, very very very cold. 2005-2006, very mild. No Temps below 20.

[chicagogeorge]

Hmm

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...68291338051584

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/s...78142034354176

[Cambium]

Time to change the analogs. Lol. No LaNina this winter

https://twitter.com/JeremyKappell/st...58102409768960