Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
View Poll Results: When do you think La Nina will happen?
Spring 2016 3 4.84%
Summer 2016 16 25.81%
Fall 2016 23 37.10%
Winter 2016-17 11 17.74%
After Feb 2017 9 14.52%
Voters: 62. You may not vote on this poll

Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 09-12-2016, 04:39 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,407,749 times
Reputation: 1996

Advertisements

What is the likelihood of a weak el Nino this winter?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 09-12-2016, 05:40 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16620
Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
What is the likelihood of a weak el Nino this winter?
This Winter? Slim to none....but next year?

https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/stat...72117064151040
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2016, 05:43 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,407,749 times
Reputation: 1996
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
This Winter? Slim to none....but next year?

https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/stat...72117064151040
I don't think the cfs is drunk, even the euro has been shifting warmer the past few runs.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-12-2016, 07:25 PM
 
Location: New York Area
35,071 posts, read 17,014,369 times
Reputation: 30219
Quote:
Originally Posted by majstoric17 View Post
I don't know how was situation in America in those winters.
Someone knows that?
New York area.

December 1983, January 1984 and March 1984 had notable cold spikes but little sustained cold. February 1984 was a torch. March 1984 had the only real snow. The following summer behaved like a second-summer La Niña, with a major heat wave in early to mid June and not much heat thereafter.

December 2005 had some snow and some cold. January 2006 was a torch. February 2006 featured a then-record snowstorm of 26.9 inches, that melted in the subsequent torchy weather. March 2006 was nondescript. The following summer had a notable late July and early August heat wave but other than that little sustained heat. There was more than a fair share of severe weather though.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-13-2016, 04:01 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,333,969 times
Reputation: 16620
Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
I don't think the cfs is drunk, even the euro has been shifting warmer the past few runs.
Speaking of the Euro... Will be interesting to see Septembers update but take a look at something...


Black dots are actual observations. Red lines are the forecasts. Apparently Euro has been way too warm


Nino plumes (Public charts) - Long range forecast | ECMWF


Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-13-2016, 07:21 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,932,594 times
Reputation: 5895
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Speaking of the Euro... Will be interesting to see Septembers update but take a look at something...


Black dots are actual observations. Red lines are the forecasts. Apparently Euro has been way too warm


Nino plumes (Public charts) - Long range forecast | ECMWF


I would imagine though these forecasts are quite inaccurate so many months in advance. I mean even the Euro deterministic forecasts accuracy drops off dramatically after 5 days.

How can we expect to believe these months away SST forecasts. Winter will be cold, as it always is lol. It is just to what degree. I look forward to Autumn at this point as I'm over heat and humidity. I'm really looking forward to no nights with AC again, windows open for a couple months, and wearing nice sweaters. Unlike George, when summer is over, I want it over and not to continue into late October.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-13-2016, 01:42 PM
 
13 posts, read 11,959 times
Reputation: 15
What Europe can expect from the next winter?
Mild winter or normal?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-14-2016, 05:01 AM
 
29,533 posts, read 19,620,154 times
Reputation: 4549
Quote:
Originally Posted by majstoric17 View Post
What Europe can expect from the next winter?
Mild winter or normal?
UK Met is showing low pressure over Europe and the Eastern US and blocking over the top in the high latitudes. That usually means colder


Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-15-2016, 05:07 AM
 
29,533 posts, read 19,620,154 times
Reputation: 4549
Cool gif from WUWT


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/...so-conditions/
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-15-2016, 05:12 AM
 
29,533 posts, read 19,620,154 times
Reputation: 4549
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...60868242087936
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Weather
Similar Threads

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:13 AM.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top