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Old 02-16-2017, 12:39 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,407,749 times
Reputation: 1996

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Quote:
Originally Posted by alex985 View Post
I don't think I've ever seen the NWS predict anything besides above-normal in the long range, ever.



That being said, I think a blowtorch March is more likely than a cold one, hope I'm wrong though.
You mean the maps george posted? Do you not see the blue on the map? Do you not remember the December forecasts? Noaa makes these forecasts based on long range models not their personal biases. Think the warm up has gotten to you lol.
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Old 02-16-2017, 12:51 PM
 
Location: Broward County, FL
16,191 posts, read 11,364,943 times
Reputation: 3530
Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
You mean the maps george posted? Do you not see the blue on the map? Do you not remember the December forecasts? Noaa makes these forecasts based on long range models not their personal biases. Think the warm up has gotten to you lol.
Lol, you're right, it probably has. Consistent above normal temps tends to **** me off majorly.
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Old 02-16-2017, 01:28 PM
 
29,533 posts, read 19,620,154 times
Reputation: 4549
NOAA seems to be going with the GFS's latest runs which show a return to warmer than normal conditions in days 12-16 from about Chicago on eastward





CFSv2 torches





even first week of March is above normal here





Far out but CFS shows colder 2nd week of March







Shows warming for second half of March

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Old 02-16-2017, 01:35 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16620
Is it spring yet???

Can someone do me a favor? Please tell mother nature that I want at least 2 months of 50s and 60s as the max.

NOT 30s and 40s in March then 70s and 80s in May. Ok? Thanks.
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Old 02-16-2017, 06:12 PM
 
Location: Seoul
11,554 posts, read 9,327,637 times
Reputation: 4660
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Is it spring yet???

Can someone do me a favor? Please tell mother nature that I want at least 2 months of 50s and 60s as the max.

NOT 30s and 40s in March then 70s and 80s in May. Ok? Thanks.
How about 2015? Went from 30s and 40s in March and April straight into 80s and 90s in May
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Old 02-16-2017, 07:02 PM
 
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
4,877 posts, read 4,216,433 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
NOAA seems to be going with the GFS's latest runs which show a return to warmer than normal conditions in days 12-16 from about Chicago on eastward





CFSv2 torches





even first week of March is above normal here





Far out but CFS shows colder 2nd week of March







Shows warming for second half of March
It Looks like aside from a few cold spells, the overall trend is for near to above average temperatures based on those model runs, which would continue the overall trend of warmer than average conditions which have largely persisted since the fall of 2015(with a few exceptions and a few cooler than normal months thrown in there, of course), all in all, it appears likely that February 2017 could well be one of the warmest ever on modern record in Indianapolis, and possibly the warmest February since 1998.
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Old 02-16-2017, 07:33 PM
 
Location: Philly suburbs
168 posts, read 105,925 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warszawa View Post
How about 2015? Went from 30s and 40s in March and April straight into 80s and 90s in May
Last year March and April were great but May was a total bust, we went from March weather to July weather, as well as it being notably cloudy.
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Old 02-17-2017, 07:38 AM
 
29,533 posts, read 19,620,154 times
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Not holding my breath for a warm summer if ENSO goes to +0.5-1.1.

Looked at weak/moderate El Nino +0.5-1.1 during the summer and came up with this analog blend... COOL






Obviously have to factor in PDO/AMO and other teleconnections as well.
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Old 02-17-2017, 07:47 AM
 
Location: Seoul
11,554 posts, read 9,327,637 times
Reputation: 4660
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stitch227 View Post
Last year March and April were great but May was a total bust, we went from March weather to July weather, as well as it being notably cloudy.
Despite being above average on paper it was a **** May, with 40s and 50s the first three weeks and then 90s the last week At least we had an awesome June after that, above average and low humidity
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Old 02-17-2017, 04:40 PM
 
Location: New York
11,326 posts, read 20,332,923 times
Reputation: 6231
Last May was just awful, it might've been the worst I've ever experienced. It was relatively equivalent to February 2015 imo.
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