Spring 2022 Weather Thread (Northern Hemisphere) (averages, locations, dew point, compare)
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The forecast for the last really cold night has dropped from 31° to 23°... That's for Sunday morning so there is time for it to still go lower. All the tender plants will be brought back in a warm area for two more nights and then it will still be a guessing game for another two weeks.
It's supposed to drop to 16F here this weekend. After that it seems like nights will be milder, the long range forecast shows lows of 34-37F from the 16th to 23rd.
I certainly don't expect this weekend to be our last frost, but it may well be our last <20F night as the average date for that has been March 14 in the past dozen years.
We will probably, although not certainly, get another hard frost, as the average date for that is April 4, give or take 3 weeks.
We have had 3 frost free Aprils recently, in 2010, 2012 and 2017.
On April 2017, the coldest temperature was 34F, and the last frost was a 23F hard frost on March 23.
On April 2012, the coldest temperature was also 34F, with the last frost being 32F on March 30.
On April 2010, the coldest temperature was 36F, with the last frost being 31F on March 31.
So we are approaching the point at which nights will be above freezing more often than not, and we can expect only 1-2 more hard frosts and a few more light frosts.
The one exception to that in recent years was March, 2014, when we still got several very cold nights in late March; 18F, 14F, 21F, 12F and 19F on the mornings of March 23, 24, 25, 26 and 27 respectively. However, after that deep cold, there was only one hard frost (25F on April 16), and a few light frosts in the 31-32F range. March 2014 was also exceptionally cold, 8.5F colder than the 2010-2021 average, in an area where temperatures don't deviate much from the average due to lake moderation.
So will this weekend have our last <20F temperatures? The recent historical record for the coldest temperature from March 20 onwards has been
With most models calling for average to above average temperatures for my area in late March, I'm going to go ahead and predict that this weekend will have the last <20F temperatures of the season.
It's supposed to drop to 16F here this weekend. After that it seems like nights will be milder, the long range forecast shows lows of 34-37F from the 16th to 23rd.
I certainly don't expect this weekend to be our last frost, but it may well be our last <20F night as the average date for that has been March 14 in the past dozen years.
We will probably, although not certainly, get another hard frost, as the average date for that is April 4, give or take 3 weeks.
We have had 3 frost free Aprils recently, in 2010, 2012 and 2017.
On April 2017, the coldest temperature was 34F, and the last frost was a 23F hard frost on March 23.
On April 2012, the coldest temperature was also 34F, with the last frost being 32F on March 30.
On April 2010, the coldest temperature was 36F, with the last frost being 31F on March 31.
So we are approaching the point at which nights will be above freezing more often than not, and we can expect only 1-2 more hard frosts and a few more light frosts.
The one exception to that in recent years was March, 2014, when we still got several very cold nights in late March; 18F, 14F, 21F, 12F and 19F on the mornings of March 23, 24, 25, 26 and 27 respectively. However, after that deep cold, there was only one hard frost (25F on April 16), and a few light frosts in the 31-32F range. March 2014 was also exceptionally cold, 8.5F colder than the 2010-2021 average, in an area where temperatures don't deviate much from the average due to lake moderation.
So will this weekend have our last <20F temperatures? The recent historical record for the coldest temperature from March 20 onwards has been
With most models calling for average to above average temperatures for my area in late March, I'm going to go ahead and predict that this weekend will have the last <20F temperatures of the season.
Nice info. Those data must be for the Burlington Lift Bridge site?
I'm going on a trip to Saskatoon (Canada) between April 20th and May 20th, exactly in the middle of spring. However, a saskatonian spring can have some decent cold weather. Average daily mean is 5.2⁰C (41.4⁰F) in April and 11.8⁰C (53.2⁰F) in May. Average snowy days are only 2.6 days in April (mostly in the beginning of the month, I suppose) and 0.5 days in May. As I will be there only by the last 1/3 of April, what do you think are the odds of seeing some snow on the ground?
As a brazilian who almost never see snow here, I'd love to see one or two snowy days when I'll be there.
Do you know if this area is going to have a colder than average spring? If it's gonna be a bit above average, I'm afraid I won't see any snow.
Nice info. Those data must be for the Burlington Lift Bridge site?
Yup. I've found that although cold nights here were a bit colder in late October and November than at the Lift Bridge station, that was no longer the case in mid-winter, in fact checking my garden thermometer is was on average about 0.5-1C warmer on the coldest mid-winter mornings. I suspect that Burlington Pier will not be warmer in the spring, even on cold nights.
Oct 16: 17.8C
Nov 1: 13.4C
Nov 16: 11.0C
Dec 1: 8.2C
Dec 16: 6.7C
Dec 31: 5.5C
Jan 16: 3.9C
Jan 31: 2.4C
Feb 15: 2.0C
Mar 1: 2.2C
Mar 8: 2.5C
So of course heading into the first frosts with lake temperatures of 10-15C, that could turn a -1C at my house 2000ft inland, into a 1-2C low right at the pier.
However, although Lake Ontario stays warm late into the fall, just as much as Lake Erie or Lake St Clair, (and is warmer in January and February), it does warm significantly slower, I assume mostly due to it being deeper. Last year, Lake Ontario only crossed the 5C mark on April 26, the 10C mark on May 18 and the 15C on June 6.
The air is much warmer in late April than in late December/early January despite similar water temperatures, so I would expect the lake to have a much weaker effect on protecting from frosts in early-mid spring than in the fall. I think the urban heat island might be a bit stronger here than at Burlington Pier too, although it's hard to say for sure. So I suspect that for low temperatures during cold snaps, my house will match up well with Burlington Pier in the spring. (last year, they seemed to match up well)
As for high temperatures, that's harder to say. The lake can definitely cut into spring heat waves significantly, during the March 2012 heatwave, the daily highs were up to 10-15C warmer in Guelph than at Burlington Pier. That was some exceptionally anomalous warmth (like a whole week of 18-20C above average) right when the lake is at its coldest. The cool lake air often makes its way to our house in spring heat waves, in March 2012, it was mostly a cool 10-15C, and foggy, but other times the cool air is limited to only 500-1000ft from the lake. On a warm day last May, it was about 28C at my house, 24C on the northern sidewalk of Lakeshore Road, 19C on the southern sidewalk of Lakeshore Road, and 15C right on the water. The blast of cool air crossing Lakeshore Road felt like walking through supermarket doors on a hot summer day, it was pretty unbelievable.
I'm going on a trip to Saskatoon (Canada) between April 20th and May 20th, exactly in the middle of spring. However, a saskatonian spring can have some decent cold weather. Average daily mean is 5.2⁰C (41.4⁰F) in April and 11.8⁰C (53.2⁰F) in May. Average snowy days are only 2.6 days in April (mostly in the beginning of the month, I suppose) and 0.5 days in May. As I will be there only by the last 1/3 of April, what do you think are the odds of seeing some snow on the ground?
As a brazilian who almost never see snow here, I'd love to see one or two snowy days when I'll be there.
Do you know if this area is going to have a colder than average spring? If it's gonna be a bit above average, I'm afraid I won't see any snow.
It definitely can be cold enough for snow, there's usually still fairly frequent frosts in late April, however, they don't get that much precipitation and it's still above freezing most of the time, so the little precipitation they get is more likely to be rain. You can most likely still find some icy slushy snow in swampy forested lowlands though, maybe in river valleys in and around the city?
It definitely can be cold enough for snow, there's usually still fairly frequent frosts in late April, however, they don't get that much precipitation and it's still above freezing most of the time, so the little precipitation they get is more likely to be rain. You can most likely still find some icy slushy snow in swampy forested lowlands though, maybe in river valleys in and around the city?
Having lived in Edmonton, I can vouch for this. With any luck though there will be a spring snowstorm--happens once in a while. OTOH you could equally well get a spring heatwave with temperatures 25-30°C.
Actually, if you're there for a month you could easily get both.
Having lived in Edmonton, I can vouch for this. With any luck though there will be a spring snowstorm--happens once in a while. OTOH you could equally well get a spring heatwave with temperatures 25-30°C.
Actually, if you're there for a month you could easily get both.
Late April of 2014 also got 2-3cm of accumulation one morning, and April 20-22 of 2013 got 2-4cm, as well as remnant snowpack (15-20cm) from earlier in winter that had not yet melted.
25C+ days during the Apr 20-May 20 period and warmest day
2021: 3 days and 32C
2020: 3 days and 28C
2019: 0 days and 23C
2018: 7 days and 31C
2017: 3 days and 30C
2016: 9 days and 32C
2015: 1 day and 28C
2014: 0 days and 20C
2013: 3 days and 28C
2012: 3 days and 26C
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