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They definitely have a long way to go! I also don't believe that China will ever be the dominant world power. By the time the population crisis hits them in 2030-2040, the economy will be marginally bigger than the US. Then we'll see the same thing that happened in Japan- deflation, bust, etc.
China also has one more additional problem compared to Japan's rise. Chinese people are much more willing to flee their country once the opportunity presents itself. Wasn't there a recent poll that 40% of China's millionaires plan to leave the country? Japan had a demographic shock due to low birth rates, but the Chinese economy will struggle with low birth rates, a bloated old population, high levels of emigration, brain drain, etc.
I love China, but I'm also trying to be realistic about the country's prospects. Right now I'm more interested in Indian development as that is the game-changer. When was the last time we had 3 major world powers? I think it will be a better balance of power as China and the US basically just do what they want...
Either way, it should be very interesting. Hopefully everyone is picking up some Chinese
All that assumes a uniformitarian macroeconomics. Not the kind of assumption you want to make in the years ahead.
All that assumes a uniformitarian macroeconomics. Not the kind of assumption you want to make in the years ahead.
I think the largest unknown variable is technology. The demographics crash is pretty inevitable. There are a few things I am very interested in seeing play out:
1. India- The world's largest democracy and eventually largest English speaking country
2. Technological advancements- Can tech improvements (ie. robots, machinery) overcome the pitfalls of a smaller workforce?
3. PRC politics- More Chinese than ever are able to travel abroad. The burgeoning middle class increasingly demands a higher quality of life. The middle class is always the game-changer in political development. Poor do no have the means, rich want to keep things as they are, but the middle class have education, time, and aspirations to challenge the hierarchy. Unfortunately, China seems to be enacting more restrictions as its citizens essential become more "free".
4. US-China relations- I would love to see improved relations between our countries. We have mutual interests and the desire to create stability for our own economic benefit.
I'm pretty convinced that this era will never reach a "Chinese" century. It's more of an "Asian Century" as the center of the world economy leaves the Atlantic/West and concentrates in Asia. China has seen unprecedented growth, but nations like the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam are just as ambitious.
I'm actually pretty unfamiliar with Birmingham's Chinatown. As of late it seems like the Muslim population is the "talk of the town". Is it sizable, touristy, authentic?
Only if you've been to more than one. I've been to Chinatowns in Oakland and San Francisco.
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