Not looking good for McSally (Phoenix: sales, crime rate, college)

[My2cents55]

Originally Posted by LS Jaun

Kelly, same as Obama? Maybe Kelly will start attending church with Obama's Reverand Wright, Secretly meeting with the Racist Farrakhan, and releasing Terrorist from GITMO. Maybe Kelly will figure out he has nothing in common with the modern Democrat party

I was reffering to the comment about Kelly being a gun grabber and taking away peoples guns they said that about Obama for 8 years and no one took anyones guns away.

It won't ever happen as long as the 2A is is in place and if u mean red flag laws then yes im all over it who wants a nut with a gun?

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by Trueguy58

I was reffering to the comment about Kelly being a gun grabber and taking away peoples guns they said that about Obama for 8 years and no one took anyones guns away.

It won't ever happen as long as the 2A is is in place and if u mean red flag laws then yes im all over it who wants a nut with a gun?

Agree, it was just silly season scare tactics, but it works well enough that they use it every election. I remember just after Obama was elected there was all this stuff on the webs about "buy guns and ammo for what's coming next" as if there was going to be a "race war" which is another load of crap that some people trot out every election .... we can't elect "HIM" -- they'll be a race war. I remember in the 2008 election, on TV, they "interviewed" some ancient snaggle-toothed old white woman from WV who flat out said "we can't elect him, -- they'll be a race war." Where in the hell do people come up with this crap. I had to moderate a lot of that garbage out of the P&OC forum which took a lot of my time back then. It was made worse because at that time, 2008-9, the Army was rebuilding its war reserve stocks of ammo and was buying 8B rounds, yes, that's 8 billion rounds, to replace what they shot off in Afghanistan since 2001 and in Iraq since 2003. People thought something was fishy but it was just the ammo makers were tapped out as far as product for the general gun sports buyers.

Standard operating procedure for elections is to make voters afraid or angry, and if they can manage it, make them both afraid AND angry. If they can get us in that state of mind we're putty in their hands, they will suck the money from our wallets and the votes from our hot little hands. After the election they don't know our name.

No one is coming for our guns, no one, unless you rob a damn bank, then you betcha they're coming for your guns AND for you.

[Storm King]

I think McSally will probably lose, but Arizona is a traditionally Republican state so the race could become close.

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by Storm King

I think McSally will probably lose, but Arizona is a traditionally Republican state so the race could become close.

Traditions die. This one already has. Look at 2016. Trump barely took the state from Clinton.

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

Traditions die. This one already has. Look at 2016. Trump barely took the state from Clinton.

And Bill Clinton won here in 96, not to mention 2 term governor Janet Napolitano

[My2cents55]

I can see AZ turning Blue in 2020 only a matter of time.

[Slater]

Democrats are making it really hard on themselves with the whole anti-gun thing. If they start pushing that to any significant extent in Arizona, the state would easily turn bright Red.

Virginia is a shining example of that issue. Massive disconnect between rural and urban populations. The state did pass several gun-control laws, but skirted the main issue of banning all AR-15 type rifles. Rumor was (and I believe it) that some of the Democratic lawmakers were nervous about their personal safety had that law passed.

New York tried a 100% assault rifle registration requirement with their "SAFE" law. It was ignored to the point that one reporter remarked "the people seem to have repealed the law on their own". And this is in a Blue state.

[AZ Manager]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

Traditions die. This one already has. Look at 2016. Trump barely took the state from Clinton.

It hasn't changed an ounce. The only change is AZ Republicans don't like Trump, his comments about McCain played a huge role in that. It's why McSally lost the first time around, she leaned very heavily into pro-Trump. The state isn't going more blue, it is running away from the loud mouth idiot.

Since Bill Clinton the Democrats not gained any vote share in AZ, not even Obama could out perform Bill Clinton.

1992 Bill Clinton 36.5% -outlier because Ross Perot took 23.8%
1996 Clinton 46.5% - also Ross Perot with 8%
2000 Gore 44.7%
2004 Kerry 44.3%
2008 Obama 45.1%
2012 Obama 44.6%
2016 Clinton 44.5%

Meanwhile you have Republicans holding steady with the exception of Trump. Democrats only hope on AZ is Republicans to run an unlocked candidate so third parties pull some votes away. Even with the rampant Trump hatred the Dems couldn't pull any votes to their side.

1992 Bush 38.5%
1996 Dole 44.3%
2000 Bush 51%
2004 Bush 54.9%
2008 McCain 53.6%
2012 Romney 53.6%
2016 Trump 48%

I expect Trump to do worse this year in AZ, not the Dems to do much better though, because he isn't very well liked here to begin with. This means McSally has basically no chance to win though I doubt the Democrats will hold the seats for very long once Trumpism dies.

[Slater]

Democrats also have to live with the fact that Beto O'Rourke's "Hell yes, I'm going to take your AR-15" will be stuck to them for years to come.

[LS Jaun]

Originally Posted by Slater

Democrats also have to live with the fact that Beto O'Rourke's "Hell yes, I'm going to take your AR-15" will be stuck to them for years to come.

Current Democrats like Beto, have no problem saying they will take your guns. If Kelly wins, and he might win in AZ, because he is not a progressive Dem, hopefully he will vote with Republicans the majority of the time, as Sinema has