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Yeah. Greysholic would know best, and it really doesn’t sound like that view is common at all. I’ve heard about a few old crazies on the news, but it sounds like they’re probably the equivalent of a QAnon type over here.
Yeah, I mean within any given identity group, you're going to have outliers who buck the trend. A good example are when the pro-Palestine/anti-Israel crowd mention a Jewish figure or group who are opposed to Israel's existence or are pushing for reconciliation and appeasement on the Israeli end. Those people certainly exist, but anyone who thinks they make up a significant majority are deluding themselves.
Similarly, you can absolutely find people in Taiwan or HK who believe that total reunification and integration with the Chinese mainland under CCP terms is ideal, for economic, practical, ideological, historical, or ethno-nationalist reasons, among others. Mainland-backed Chinese media is going to push these voices to the forefront, just as pretty much any media is going to do to push the agenda of its owners.
This said, every poll taken indicates that the substantial majority of Taiwan citizens do not want this, and their voting patterns, even when opening to cooperation with the mainland, still declines to re-integrate or make any space for CCP administration, or take policies that mirror those of the mainland. I've never met a Taiwanese person, in the US or even in China, who supports Chinese premacy (I know one older HK'er who "supports" Chinese control over HK primarily out of the mindset that it's irreversible and that there needs to be dialogue and acceptance to retain what unique culture and policy HK has left).
So, using polls that indicate a preference for "peace" is disingenuous - most of those people are probably of the mindset, "yes, I want peace, I want China not to try to invade us." Conversely, there are also probably some of the 1/3rd who don't want peace - maybe a majority even - who are supporters of CCP control over the island and believe that an invasion is the only way. They also probably imagine that somehow, their support will prevent them and their families from suffering in said invasion.
There's no harm in sharing information on the movements in Taiwan who support the CCP and want an end to Western alignment, but pretending that this is a wider majority whose desires supplant those of the actual majority who want to maintain a peaceful status quo is dishonest.
Yeah, I mean within any given identity group, you're going to have outliers who buck the trend. A good example are when the pro-Palestine/anti-Israel crowd mention a Jewish figure or group who are opposed to Israel's existence or are pushing for reconciliation and appeasement on the Israeli end. Those people certainly exist, but anyone who thinks they make up a significant majority are deluding themselves.
Similarly, you can absolutely find people in Taiwan or HK who believe that total reunification and integration with the Chinese mainland under CCP terms is ideal, for economic, practical, ideological, historical, or ethno-nationalist reasons, among others. Mainland-backed Chinese media is going to push these voices to the forefront, just as pretty much any media is going to do to push the agenda of its owners.
This said, every poll taken indicates that the substantial majority of Taiwan citizens do not want this, and their voting patterns, even when opening to cooperation with the mainland, still declines to re-integrate or make any space for CCP administration, or take policies that mirror those of the mainland. I've never met a Taiwanese person, in the US or even in China, who supports Chinese premacy (I know one older HK'er who "supports" Chinese control over HK primarily out of the mindset that it's irreversible and that there needs to be dialogue and acceptance to retain what unique culture and policy HK has left).
So, using polls that indicate a preference for "peace" is disingenuous - most of those people are probably of the mindset, "yes, I want peace, I want China not to try to invade us." Conversely, there are also probably some of the 1/3rd who don't want peace - maybe a majority even - who are supporters of CCP control over the island and believe that an invasion is the only way. They also probably imagine that somehow, their support will prevent them and their families from suffering in said invasion.
There's no harm in sharing information on the movements in Taiwan who support the CCP and want an end to Western alignment, but pretending that this is a wider majority whose desires supplant those of the actual majority who want to maintain a peaceful status quo is dishonest.
Let's not kid ourselves, even if most people in Taiwan wanted unification with China, the U.S. still would not support it. Self-determination is only a right if a given nation would be favorable to U.S. interest. Look at Vietnam. Majority hated the South Vietnamese government and favored unification. Didn't matter to the U.S. Most Cubans favored Castro regime, but we still tried to overthrow his government. From my understanding the Donetsk regions are Pro-Russian, yet we somehow, we are looking the other way to their interest. The situation wouldn't be any different with Taiwan. The island shall always be in a Western friendly position in the minds of Western elites.
Very typical for tankies to only read bull**** written in English by morons and think they know everything.
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Originally Posted by Ice_Major
Let's not kid ourselves, even if most people in Taiwan wanted unification with China, the U.S. still would not support it. Self-determination is only a right if a given nation would be favorable to U.S. interest. Look at Vietnam. Majority hated the South Vietnamese government and favored unification. Didn't matter to the U.S. Most Cubans favored Castro regime, but we still tried to overthrow his government. From my understanding the Donetsk regions are Pro-Russian, yet we somehow, we are looking the other way to their interest. The situation wouldn't be any different with Taiwan. The island shall always be in a Western friendly position in the minds of Western elites.
And whose fault is it that people in Taiwan hate China and like the US?
Off topic a bit, but “pro Russian” in the Ukrainian context does not indicate support for the Donetsk/Luhansk People’s Republics or unification with Russia. I used to think that too, but looking into it Yanukovych was elected in these regions, yes. But he campaigned as a middle-ground candidate that promoted neutrality. He wanted better protection for Russian minority language rights as opposed to Ukrainian only policies, and was pursuing joining a trade bloc with the EU while not pursuing NATO membership or a defence alliance with Russia. He broke his promise under blackmail/bribery from Putin and AFAIK people in these now paramilitary occupied regions were angered as well, but due to mass migrations due to the conflict, a lot of the people who remained in these areas are now demographically more sympathetic to these separatist forces.
I think a good comparison is probably Kinmen and Matsu in the ROC. Historically part of Fukien province, and closer to the mainland geographically, and many are very patriotic about their Chinese identity and want eventual unification, but they are also the descendants of soldiers who fought against the PLA in the civil war and AFAIK the hope is for China to be unified under the ROC, not the PRC, although yes there are probably people that would rather unify with the PRC than join a Republic of Taiwan where they feel their local identity will not be respected.
I didn't use that example to show they are exactly the same, but to show that they were willing to tolerate a lot more after the war had started.
The fact that asian countries are not friends might work in Taiwan's favor, because even if some of them are unhappy about the blockade, they are not powerful alone to do anything to stop it. However, Europe was powerful enough to follow China's advice and break the sanctions so that they can trade freely with Russia and escape the consequences of war. The reason they didn't do it, is not because they are part of a defensive ally, they would have done exactly the same if NATO didn't exist. They did it because they believe national security and standing up for their values is more important than monetary gain.
Taiwan is a developed country that share a lot of similarity with other Asian countries in the region. Most countries in the region have their own experience with China's aggressive foreign diplomacy. That means, they will easily sympathize when they see dead Taiwanese civilians and they will not support politicians that suggest betraying the USA and Taiwan so that they can trade freely with China.
The CCP cares about political instability, not economic growth. Just starting a war with Taiwan will lead to increased support and if they win then the people will praise the regime. Chinese people are not going to care if it leads to poor economic growth, if they did they would have punished them a lot more for the covid mess.
And what do you think is going to happen to Taiwan when China has completely surrounded the island, cut off their internet, cut off all import and is bombing civilian infrastructure like power, water and bridges. Without military assistance and life without basic necessities, Taiwan will be forced to give up without a fight and it will be the victory Chinese nationalists are dreaming about.
So how do I get to my conclusions? I think the USA want to avoid the scenario I mentioned at almost any cost. To do that, they have to stop China from completely blockading the island, and protect Taiwanese deep sea waters to the east. And if they are going to participate that directly, then they can't let China import everything they need from their allies or they will make their own fight more difficult. The USA and its allies are stronger than China, so I do not doubt their capabilities.
I'd like to see some studied and sourced writings on a blockade of China, because it does not seem reasonable to me. That article points to the threat of China blockading Taiwan as well as a response of the US military sinking ships. It does not mention blockading China and it does not mention targeting commercial ships in international waters, in the waters of other nations, or in China's territorial waters. This is very different. I'm not saying that these countries not being friends with each other or friends of the US or Taiwan necessarily working out towards one outcome or another, but it is a very different situation than NATO plus EU+EFTA+UK in terms of cohesion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307
Yeah. That's not fair.
Actually everyone in the world hates China, not just people in Taiwan.
This is inaccurate. Even in countries that have higher percentages of people who have an unfavorable view of China, that's not the same as everyone hates China.
This is markedly worse than a few years ago, though still not "everyone". I think the more striking part of this poll is the shifts of attitude in Canada, Sweden, the UK and South Korea where they all shifted heavily in a few years into majority unfavorable. It's missing a lot of places though. New Zealand has made a very strong shift because of unforced error of the Chinese government trying to infiltrate the government of what was a very friendly nation. That being said, that's developed countries. In some developing countries, attitudes are sometimes more favorable though it's also argued that polls in those nations are less reliable. Here's another one of the greater Indo-Pacific region: https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/sout...-of-china-why/. Here's one that includes some African nations: https://www.voanews.com/a/survey-afr...e/6813313.html it is an interesting note though that favorable views of US were higher and a majority for nations surveyed stated that there should be intervention and aid for Taiwan by other countries should Taiwan be invaded by China.
Anyhow, XJP has been quite disappointing and has turned what had been an orderly and fairly good streak for China into something that while on the surface seems orderly is far more chaotic with public opinion elsewhere turning against China and China's successful and historic rise over the last few decades with a relatively orderly succession process for new leadership having been disrupted by him. That probably bodes poorly for everyone and hopefully something compels him to leave office soon and in a relatively orderly fashion instead of calcifying into the kind of bad information channels and processes that afflict Russia as their strongman consolidated power at the expense of pragmatism and actual expertise.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 03-29-2023 at 03:53 PM..
I'd like to see some studied and sourced writings on a blockade of China, because it does not seem reasonable to me. That article points to the threat of China blockading Taiwan as well as a response of the US military sinking ships. It does not mention blockading China and it does not mention targeting commercial ships in international waters, in the waters of other nations, or in China's territorial waters. This is very different. I'm not saying that these countries not being friends with each other or friends of the US or Taiwan necessarily working out towards one outcome or another, but it is a very different situation than NATO plus EU+EFTA+UK in terms of cohesion.
That article was not about blockade. That is why it didn't mention anything about blockading China. Here is another article talking about blockade
Quote:
The United States could find itself embroiled with China in an unlimited war, a limited war, or an “extensive” war that falls between the other two poles, and out of these, it would only consider implementing a blockade in the third, “extensive” conflict scenario.
This is the scenario I am talking about. I don't understand why you think it is so unthinkable. The other article clearly mentioned that the USA need to sink Chinese military ships. If that is true, why would the USA let China import oil and weapons from its allies? This is resources that will be used against the USA and increase American casualties.
Strong cohesion is not necessary. The USA and its allies don't need countries like Malaysia and Indonesia to work together, they just need them to cooperate. They are too weak on their own, so even if they are against the sanctions, lack of cohesion can increase the chance of them cooperating. However, I really don't think they will resist, an invasion of Taiwan will be extremely unpopular and they don't want China to win and become the regional hegemony of Asia as they might be next.
This is the scenario I am talking about. I don't understand why you think it is so unthinkable. The other article clearly mentioned that the USA need to sink Chinese military ships. If that is true, why would the USA let China import oil and weapons from its allies? This is resources that will be used against the USA and increase American casualties.
Strong cohesion is not necessary. The USA and its allies don't need countries like Malaysia and Indonesia to work together, they just need them to cooperate. They are too weak on their own, so even if they are against the sanctions, lack of cohesion can increase the chance of them cooperating. However, I really don't think they will resist, an invasion of Taiwan will be extremely unpopular and they don't want China to win and become the regional hegemony of Asia as they might be next.
I understand that's not in the article. Our conversation though and where we disagreed was that the US could reasonably implement a long-running blockade of China including its commercial shipping.
I've seen that before. Note that's in 2013 a decade ago with far higher capabilities for China at this point and much stronger economic ties between China and surrounding countries. The write-up early on also calls for something that in the near term is politically impossible. I'll bold that in the quote below:
Quote:
While a blockade is not a priori impossible or irrelevant in any situation, it is also not a ready tool in the American arsenal and would be feasible mainly within certain boundaries. First, a blockade could achieve its objectives primarily in the context of a protracted Sino-American conflict over vital interests. Second, a blockade’s success would depend in large part on the support of Russia, ideally along with India and Japan. Particularly in Moscow’s case, such support is unlikely to be forthcoming unless China begins to misbehave in a way that unnerves its neighbors and leads them to align with the United States in order to protect their security interests
Remember though, this is a write-up from a decade ago. Also note the naval blockade mentioned in that write-up were for a fairly close to shore naval blockade and certainly not something stretching to the straits of Malacca which is ridiculous especially given both Malaysia and Singapore's fairly favorable view of China and Indonesia's strong commitment to being mostly non-aligned. A short-term naval blockade close to China's shore is doable to some extent, but it would be fairly short term because you quickly open yourself up to shore to sea fire. Opening up the line further out means a hell of a lot more water to cover and then starts going into other countries that are not necessarily so aligned. And yet, even this close-to-shore naval blockade with a much larger power differential and not nearly as economically powerful China a decade ago still was predicated on *support* from major neighbors including Russia. I think there is considerable room for skepticism here.
Let's not kid ourselves, even if most people in Taiwan wanted unification with China, the U.S. still would not support it. Self-determination is only a right if a given nation would be favorable to U.S. interest. Look at Vietnam. Majority hated the South Vietnamese government and favored unification. Didn't matter to the U.S. Most Cubans favored Castro regime, but we still tried to overthrow his government. From my understanding the Donetsk regions are Pro-Russian, yet we somehow, we are looking the other way to their interest. The situation wouldn't be any different with Taiwan. The island shall always be in a Western friendly position in the minds of Western elites.
But since in this reality we are in most Taiwanese don't want to join mainland China, this is a moot point. A majority would rather maintain relations with AUKUS, Japan, etc as a foil to their way of life being trampled.
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