The City of Atlanta growing faster than suburbs (Roswell, Alpharetta: custom home, schools)

[BobKovacs]

Originally Posted by ATLTJL

I also don't know why you are assuming the mcmansions were constructed poorly. I haven't been inside too many of them, but the ones I have been in are all made of quality materials and seem to have used sound workmanship. I'm sure there are some shoddy ones, and I don't know, it may even be the majority....but I can tell you that the ones I have seen are fairly decent quality. How many of them have you actually been in before you make a statement like that?

They're just following the same old, tired mantra of "the new houses are built like crap- they don't build houses like they used to", when 99% of the people who spout that off don't know the first thing about construction, and couldn't tell a well-built house from a doghouse if they had to.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by bryantm3

i would be worried about johns creek to be frank. although it's very expensive and trendy now, there isn't a real downtown area that people will gather to. the mcmansions of today will be undesirable as the cheap methods used to construct them will begin to show with time. the shopping centres that are thriving today will look like the older shopping centres in the closer in suburbs look today: crappy and old. honestly what i predict will happen is that the core downtown areas of these suburbs will survive and thrive, and the suburban sprawl surrounding them will begin to decay.

not at all!

It is all about Location-location-Location.

You have great schools, well landscaped lots, nice houses.

However, the more important element of what I have been saying... They have immediate access to jobs throughout the Northpoint/Alpharetta corridor, they can easily commute to the jobs in the I-85 corridor, and they have a direct route to Peachtree Corners.

For longer commutes to places like Perimeter Center they have a route they can drive that lets them stay away from Spaghetti junction at I-85. That is big. It also isn't a horrible drive to keep driving down Peachtree to get to Buckhead.

One thing people should consider... If people really do start turning away from the suburban fringe (and they haven't quite yet!), the suburbs closer to town are going to become more valuable for those who still want a suburban lifestyle. Johns Creek is no longer at the exurban fringe.... Cumming is.

[bryantm3]

Originally Posted by BobKovacs

They're just following the same old, tired mantra of "the new houses are built like crap- they don't build houses like they used to", when 99% of the people who spout that off don't know the first thing about construction, and couldn't tell a well-built house from a doghouse if they had to.

i grew up in forsyth county, born in 1990. every person's house i went to was what they call a McMansion. i've seen them being built, i've been inside them when they're finished, etc. it's all plywood and drywall with a façade pasted over the outside. how'd you think they could make any money off of selling 6000 square foot homes?

[ATLTJL]

how'd you think they could make any money off of selling 6000 square foot homes?

By selling them for $1 million?

Maybe when we talk about "McMansions" we are talking about different things.

I'm talking about what they put up in St. Marlo and other areas where the homes are above $350k and into the millions.

[arjay57]

I hate the term "McMansion." It's derisive and insulting.

Most of the homes that I've seen built in modern times are excellent. Sure, there's some junky stuff in the mix but that's true of older homes as well.

[Onthemove2014]

Originally Posted by bryantm3

born in 1990.

Your are 22 years old and you are a master contractor and carpenter? Man, how do you find the time to be on city-data.

[Saintmarks]

Back to the OP.

These numbers are based off the Census Bureau's recent 2011 city population estimates. Sounds like a reasonable source to base these numbers.

Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Incorporated Places - U.S Census Bureau

But can we go back and remember what the Bureau said all throughout the 2000s on how the central city was growing... from 416k in 2000 to upwards of 540k in 2009? Have we forgotten the disappointment we all felt when the 2010 census showed the city with a population of 420k? A gain of only 4k in the decade when we were thinking well over 100k?

So this same bureau says that in the first year of this decade the city is now up 12k. 2011 estimate is 432k and no suburb gained more than 4k in the same time frame. Up to my point....

Are we really going to except it with blind faith that the city gained 12k in one year in a bad economy when it only gained 4k in an overall healthy decade? Really?

Sorry, but the estimates the bureau put up in the '00 decade have me taking any future numbers with more than a grain of salt. At least a little paper packet if not a whole shaker.

[berkeleylake]

Originally Posted by K-SawDude

According to the Wall Street Journal, Atlanta and many other cities are seeing the core of the metro grow faster than the suburbs--at least comparing 2011 to 2010. This is unusual, as for most of the last century, suburban population growth has been brisker than the pace of urban growth. Here's the chart that shows the numbers:

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/i...0627183903.jpg

But the accompanying article wonders whether or not this is the start of a new trend:

Cities Outpace Suburbs in Growth - WSJ.com

Is our culture starting to shift here? Are people starting to prefer urban living over suburban living in higher numbers? Or is this just fallout from the recent recession? More and more renters are "staying put" in cities, either because they're skittish about buying a suburban house, or because they're not as financially able to qualify as buyers as they would have been 10 years ago.

I tend to think there has to be somewhat of a change in cultural tastes, as people could certainly choose to rent in the suburbs rather than rent in the city.

What do y'all think?

I think in time the whole system of ongoing suburban growth being built around the automobile culture since WWII will diminish in the coming decades. I think parts of metro Atlanta will be high density while other areas will not. This goes for most any medium to large metro area. There will continue be economic pressure on people to live near their jobs, so some high density development will happen. How much? - not sure, but the trends are there.

In this article, I was even surprised the city of Atlanta was mentioned with population growth because the city's population did not increase much at all from the 2000 to the 2010 census (from 416K to 420K residents, only .8 percent growth).

[berkeleylake]

Originally Posted by bryantm3

i would be worried about johns creek to be frank. although it's very expensive and trendy now, there isn't a real downtown area that people will gather to. the mcmansions of today will be undesirable as the cheap methods used to construct them will begin to show with time. the shopping centres that are thriving today will look like the older shopping centres in the closer in suburbs look today: crappy and old. honestly what i predict will happen is that the core downtown areas of these suburbs will survive and thrive, and the suburban sprawl surrounding them will begin to decay.

I think most of the northern suburbs around Johns Creek will remain stable for at least a while anyway. I would guess the areas from (Marietta) East Cobb, to most of North Fulton to parts of Gwinnett will remain stable as long as most of the public schools remain strong. I would call this "northern arc" suburbs and you could probably include a few other areas I did not mention to remain stable. Another factor is access to good paying jobs for these areas, I don't think that will change much either in the future.

The other suburbs, some will not fair so well, especially ones with poor-performing public schools or areas that are considered "exurban." Some of these far from job centers will probably suffer. I think with the intown areas, most will continue to gentrify, maybe even areas just outside of 285. The public school issue is a bigger deal in for people in suburbs than many of those intown.

[BobKovacs]

Originally Posted by bryantm3

i grew up in forsyth county, born in 1990. every person's house i went to was what they call a McMansion. i've seen them being built, i've been inside them when they're finished, etc. it's all plywood and drywall with a façade pasted over the outside. how'd you think they could make any money off of selling 6000 square foot homes?

What's it supposed to be built with, exactly?? With very few exceptions, every house is built with plywood and drywall- even multi-million custom homes.

Born in 1990??? I was building houses before you were born......