MARTA Expansion into Clayton = Long awaited Commuter Rail? (Atlanta, Savannah: sales, 2013)
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Ok humor me for a second. I know this has been discussed to death, but I need clarification. So hypothetically if Clayton voters were to approve a binding referendum which allowed the county to collect a 1% MARTA tax, the money generated from said tax is projected to generate about $49 million annually. This far surpasses the paltry $10 million that was needed to operate bus service and in a perfect world leaves $39 million for operating and something more. Now its already been established that near $193 million has been set aside for the Atlanta to Lovejoy rail ($106 million by GDOT and $87 million by congress) That being the case, the projected annual operation costs for the line sits at $7 million dollars. So what do you get:
Initial Start up:
Commuter Rail Cost = $106 million
GDOT Available Funding = $106 million
Congress Available Funding = $87 million
Total: $193 million available in initial start up
$193 - 106 million = $87 million left over
Annual Operation Fees:
Marta 1% Tax = $49 million
MARTA Bus Operation = $10 million
Commuter Rail Operation = $7 million
Total Cost: $17 million
Remaining Funds: $32 million
Conclusion:
More than enough money to build and operate a south bound commuter rail line.
Firstly.. Are my numbers correct? Maybe I am way off base and missing some cost or key point that makes running a commuter line in Clayton unfeasible. Because If not, if I were to base it on the numbers I provided.. then it seems as if a MARTA run commuter rail could be a possibility. If my numbers are correct, then why is there such political gridlock in allowing this to succeed?
Well, it sounds ok to me, but I'm not sure if MARTA is able to operate commuter rail however. It would be great if they could finally the Lovejoy line running with Clayton's contribution to MARTA. I just hope it's not just an Xpress bus on rails, in other words a peak-only operation.
Well I'm not trying to be a naysayer, but to examine this further...
That was from 2006. The problem is Georgia never used that money for this purpose. I'm not sure it is still available and I remember a good bit of press time to the GDOT trying to get permission to use the funds entirely for the MMPT project instead in the long-run.
The first thing you need to do is find out if that money was used for another purpose or if it expired. This includes both federal and state.
The next problem is inflation. You need to control for rising costs, particularly for cost related to building construction and rail construction, which will be heavy on labor, steel, and concrete costs. Just because inflation occurs, this doesn't mean the gov't allocations have increased with it. That money sits. This is a huge problem today. Sometimes states construct things well after federal funding, which greatly alters end-costs.
The third thing to examine has to do with anything that might have changed in setting up an operating agreement with Norfolk Southern to access to their tracks.
Since that time, the state was also trying to apply for a $400m FRA application to update that whole track to Macon, which would in turn also increase freight capacity. The state never put in any matching funds (meaning it wouldn't be given federal money). I'm not sure how much that is tied to any operations agreements.
Most importantly: In most cases that $87 million is a part of that $106m, not an addition. The $19m is the amount the state said they would fund to make their original application for funds competitive. 10 to 30% is typical for large projects.
It should also be noted that using that $87m requires a 10 year operations commitment. This is why states don't spend money they are ear-marked ASAP. If this commitment wasn't there, they would spend it fast and not risk losing it. It could lead to arguments over government waste if they could.
For buses... I need to see sources better for operations costs. I don't believe there is any formal plan for what service would be and what it would cost if this happened yet, so it is tough to determine. If people pay a 1% sales tax, they might expect more expansive service than previously existed. There would also be a large capital cost at start up, that would take time to collect tax money for. If bonds are bought, then the interest will push costs higher.
Overall my general thoughts are. It is doable, but it might be a tad bit more expensive than you think and some funds might have to come from elsewhere depending on how it is started up at the same time as a 1% MARTA tax. The introduction of a MARTA tax will also carry a heavy cost and an immediate expectation for buses. I don't think at this point in time MARTA will be capable of funding the start up with existing funds not from the additional tax revenue from Clayton Co.
Well, it sounds ok to me, but I'm not sure if MARTA is able to operate commuter rail however. It would be great if they could finally the Lovejoy line running with Clayton's contribution to MARTA. I just hope it's not just an Xpress bus on rails, in other words a peak-only operation.
As discussed in detail before it is peak-only operation. This was in the GDOT's plan ever since the 90s and is explicitly listed on their applications for federal funding and agreements with freight carriers.
The service you have described prior would need much money and would require another set of rails be built, particularly between Downtown and East Point and possible Past Lake City, depending on how tracks are used for local freight delivery. The mainline use of those particular tracks is otherwise low, thanks to NS mainline further east.
As discussed in detail before it is peak-only operation. This was in the GDOT's plan ever since the 90s and is explicitly listed on their applications for federal funding and agreements with freight carriers.
Then it's a stupid plan designed to fail by the transit-haters in government as something they can point to it to prevent ANY future expansion of transit.
Just look at Nashville's Music City Star service. Except for the route being owned by a Class 1 instead of a shortline, it is virtually identical to the Lovejoy line. Yet, due to it's pitiful service and resultant low ridership, calls to expand it have been shot down. Minneapolis's Northstar service is seeing a similar problem, fortunately, their expansion of their light rail began around the same time as Northstar so its been easier to keep building rather than to stop everything.
Quote:
The service you have described prior would need much money and would require another set of rails be built, particularly between Downtown and East Point and possible Past Lake City, depending on how tracks are used for local freight delivery. The mainline use of those particular tracks is otherwise low, thanks to NS mainline further east.
No it wouldn't. The Long Island Railroad operates far more trains between Bethpage and Ronkonkoma on single-track with passing sidings, than Lovejoy probably ever will. If anything, unless the upgrades are minimal making the service useless even in a peak-only configuration, so much excess capacity will be created that it would be a complete waste of money NOT to operate more than just peak service.
Ok humor me for a second. I know this has been discussed to death, but I need clarification. So hypothetically if Clayton voters were to approve a binding referendum which allowed the county to collect a 1% MARTA tax, the money generated from said tax is projected to generate about $49 million annually. This far surpasses the paltry $10 million that was needed to operate bus service and in a perfect world leaves $39 million for operating and something more. Now its already been established that near $193 million has been set aside for the Atlanta to Lovejoy rail ($106 million by GDOT and $87 million by congress) That being the case, the projected annual operation costs for the line sits at $7 million dollars. So what do you get:
Initial Start up:
Commuter Rail Cost = $106 million
GDOT Available Funding = $106 million
Congress Available Funding = $87 million
Total: $193 million available in initial start up
$193 - 106 million = $87 million left over
Annual Operation Fees:
Marta 1% Tax = $49 million
MARTA Bus Operation = $10 million
Commuter Rail Operation = $7 million
Total Cost: $17 million
Remaining Funds: $32 million
Conclusion:
More than enough money to build and operate a south bound commuter rail line.
Firstly.. Are my numbers correct? Maybe I am way off base and missing some cost or key point that makes running a commuter line in Clayton unfeasible. Because If not, if I were to base it on the numbers I provided.. then it seems as if a MARTA run commuter rail could be a possibility. If my numbers are correct, then why is there such political gridlock in allowing this to succeed?
Your numbers are good, it's just that the main reason why there has not been any movement to bring commuter rail service to the Atlanta-Lovejoy corridor is that the governing environment at the state level has been increasingly extremely-dysfunctional over the past 15 years or so.
Georgia's increasingly extremely-dysfunctional state government has had increasingly extreme difficulty just attempting to keep the existing highway department (a.k.a. the Georgia Department of Transportation or GDOT) operating at a base level of competence during that time frame.
With Georgia's completely wacked-out state government basically having no coherent transportation policy for long stretches of time over the past 10-15 years or so (things got particularly bad between about 2007-2011), getting anything more than basic road maintenance functions has been completely out of the question.
Another reason that there has not been movement on bringing commuter rail service to the Atlanta-Lovejoy corridor is that Norfolk Southern has started to express doubts about letting the state use its freight rail tracks for passenger trains during a time of rising freight rail volumes.
NS is also leery about letting passenger trains use its tracks with freight rail volumes expected to grow dramatically (particularly after the expected expansion of the fast-growing international seaport at the Port of Savannah).
The Norfolk-Southern railroad sent a letter to the Georgia Department of Transportation in early May saying that because of anticipated growth in freight traffic, it does not expect to have sufficient capacity on its rail lines to accommodate passenger rail to serve the MMPT.
Your numbers are good, it's just that the main reason why there has not been any movement to bring commuter rail service to the Atlanta-Lovejoy corridor is that the governing environment at the state level has been increasingly extremely-dysfunctional over the past 15 years or so.
Georgia's increasingly extremely-dysfunctional state government has had increasingly extreme difficulty just attempting to keep the existing highway department (a.k.a. the Georgia Department of Transportation or GDOT) operating at a base level of competence during that time frame.
With Georgia's completely wacked-out state government basically having no coherent transportation policy for long stretches of time over the past 10-15 years or so (things got particularly bad between about 2007-2011), getting anything more than basic road maintenance functions has been completely out of the question.
Another reason that there has not been movement on bringing commuter rail service to the Atlanta-Lovejoy corridor is that Norfolk Southern has started to express doubts about letting the state use its freight rail tracks for passenger trains during a time of rising freight rail volumes.
NS is also leery about letting passenger trains use its tracks with freight rail volumes expected to grow dramatically (particularly after the expected expansion of the fast-growing international seaport at the Port of Savannah).
The key thing he said was he was happy to work on finding alternatives routes in the city and would work with them on lines outside the perimeter.
There is an odd political dynamic going on here. I'm betting he wants them to use the CSX tracks in the city. One of which is technically owned by the state and leased to CSX. It was a 99 year lease set to expire in 2019. Their network also has a bypass of sorts to the west of of the city.
There is a key difference between NS in Atlanta and CSX in Atlanta. Atlanta is a critical "lynch pin" in their network between the Eastern Sea board and the west. There are only 3 other crossings: an expensive cross-mountain crossing and two up in Pennsylvania and New York. Their Atlanta junction is critical and it is that intown corridor with their major junction being Howell Junction.
CSX has other regional alternative routes. They still use, and need to use, Atlanta extremely heavily for through traffic. They just have more lee-way adjusting traffic. CSX is actually the biggest provider to clients in Atlanta and much of it stems from being able to have more deliveries on their tracks in the Atlanta area.
Both networks consider the path from Downtown to Howell Junction to be the largest bottleneck and both will petition to not have their tracks used for passenger rail.
However, this doesn't mean the railroads won't use passenger rail as an excuse to have railroads upgraded and increase freight capacity. That is exactly what the GDOT was doing a few years back applying for $400m in funds for the NS route from Macon to Atlanta via Griffin. The upgrades would also make more freight movement possible. Since, NS has a major junction in Macon the Macon - Atlanta capacity is key to keeping up with their Savannah growth, which is one of the 3 identified bottlenecks in the state of Georgia.
So I take the statements as a negotiation. We'll help you where you help us. We can't help you where we are running at 100% of capacity.
I think it has always been a given if we ever had a built out passenger rail system dedicated tracks would have to be built through the city at a high cost. I just thought for a few start ups on a few lines it would be worked out.
Then it's a stupid plan designed to fail by the transit-haters in government as something they can point to it to prevent ANY future expansion of transit.
Just look at Nashville's Music City Star service. Except for the route being owned by a Class 1 instead of a shortline, it is virtually identical to the Lovejoy line. Yet, due to it's pitiful service and resultant low ridership, calls to expand it have been shot down. Minneapolis's Northstar service is seeing a similar problem, fortunately, their expansion of their light rail began around the same time as Northstar so its been easier to keep building rather than to stop everything.
No it wouldn't. The Long Island Railroad operates far more trains between Bethpage and Ronkonkoma on single-track with passing sidings, than Lovejoy probably ever will. If anything, unless the upgrades are minimal making the service useless even in a peak-only configuration, so much excess capacity will be created that it would be a complete waste of money NOT to operate more than just peak service.
We've been over this in detail before. If you go to an old industrial northern city that was heavily populated in the pre-car era you will have tons of spur lines going in many directions that aren't used heavily for freight. They were primarily used for moving people and local freight.
Long Island Railroads are just that! It is an Island. The rails don't go anywhere other than those communities. This means they can use those tracks heavily and there is not much to compete passenger usage. You can talk about LIRR as much as you want to your heart's content, but it won't shed one bit of reality to rail in Atlanta.
Generally speaking... we don't have that at all. The closest place would have been what is now the Silver Comet Trail, but even that did not go into town. It junctioned with a heavily used mainline.
For the record the line through Lovejoy is not a short line. It is a through line owned by Norfolk Southern, a Class I railroad. It is a low density line, because NS exist the merger of multiple railroads and they rely more heavily on a more upgraded track to the east. However, they still use those tracks for overflow and local deliveries. It is not a shortline. That corridor is one of their bottlenecks and they have been working with the state at trying to get funds to make that a better route to use to handle extra freight from Savannah in the future.
There is room to update it and take capacity for passenger use, however it will still be a freight track and will never offer the type of access LIRR has. There is more freight on it now than the tracks LIRR is using on those lines.
I think peak-only commuter service is great. It serves the most demand and it serves Atlanta when and where our roads are congested.
It is also worth looking at VRE and MARC, but there are actually many agencies that operate peak, one-way commuter rail.
And lastly you're definitely wrong on your last point, particularly about the part intown between East Point and Downtown. That is a part of the key issue that is bring brought up in that article Born 2 Roll. The corridor is a part of a bottleneck, preexisting. It can not handle two-way all day service without hurting freight (which is tied to our economy, it isn't just a business vs Atlanta).
As for Lake City to East Point, it is all about freight delivery disruptions. I'm not sure if it would be needed or not, but they have to be able to deliver goods to the industrial districts in Clayton County. They do have an extra track into the industrial district and Forest Park Yard to operate a high amount of deliveries out of it, which is no small resource. They would still need to make delivery runs between Forest Park and Inman Yard.
I think you'd be more likely to see MARTA dust off plans for an extended Hapeville Branch to Forest Park rather than get into the commuter rail business.
People love to beat up on poor old Clayton but here they are, leading the charge for commuter rail.
Sounds to me like they are way ahead of some of their critics.
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