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I've posted this before and it's like people can't even read.
Much of the savings due to battery costs won't be passed onto the consumer, rather they will keep the savings so they can attain profitability with their EVs...
How automakers are dealing with battery improvements in cost per kWh seems to shift from model to model. Automakers do need to make a profit on their vehicles eventually if they're to survive, so if they aren't now, then they'll certainly try (or need) to make their EVs profitable. I believe Nissan, BMW and Tesla say they make a profit on their EVs. GM might or might not. If not, it's not entirely clear if they're taking a loss on the entire program overall but making a marginal profit per unit now that can eventually make the program profitable if they can increase number of sales to amortize the research, development, and tooling costs over more units or if it's actually currently selling at a loss per unit with each unit sold putting them further in the hole. I would think the former, but who knows.
Aside from being profitable, the other major area that battery improvements and the lower cost per kWh seem to be going towards is overall capacity and range. While supposedly a high double digit range covers the vast majority of vehicle usage for the vast majority of people in the US, that's just not really what people are willing to buy in the US so we've been seeing higher and higher range. Pretty much every EV model and trim level that's been out long enough to get a refresh or a second generation seems to have pumped up its battery capacity and range from its debut. I suspect that at some point that'll stop, because I can't imagine there's a huge chunk of people that would demand four digit mile range. At that point, perhaps more of the battery improvement savings will go into cheaper vehicles and hopefully greatly reduced battery weight plays a greater role in extending range.
You also see some interesting combination of strategies.
Nissan's Leaf had a large range bump in its second generation, but didn't really change the price. However, it's arguably closest non-EV competitors over the decade have significantly adjusted their prices as part of inflationary pressures so the price gap between them is now lower.
The Bolt did a modest 10% range/capacity bump shortly after its debut, then did a refresh where the sticker price was slashed, the interior made supposedly more premium, and made the fast charger option became part of the standard package and now includes an offer to install a level 2 charger in your home.
The Model S eliminated all of its lower tiered trim so its median price actually went up, so it's a difficult comparison there as it technically became more expensive, but the long range and performance versions are about the same or slightly cheaper in price and have much, much more in range and in standard features than during their debut.
The Model 3 went the opposite direction where it debuted with more expensive trims, but it's now possible to get a lower base trim so the median price went down, but like with the Model S, I think it's reasonable to make a comparison on what are similar trim levels in which case the price is about the same, but the range and feature set greatly increased.
The i3 which been on the market without a refresh or new generation in 7 years did increase in price, but at about half the rate of inflation. In that time period, it also increased its base range from 81 miles to 153 miles. It's not selling very well though.
Battery improvements aren't going squarely towards increasing profit margins for all vehicles. One of them has a large dip in sticker price even without adjusting for inflation, some of these vehicles are letting inflation catch up to the original high price point as ICE competitors increase the cost of their vehicles, some are adding features to their trim levels, and all of them have added more battery capacity/range. I suspect that some of these battery improvement costs not going squarely into sticker price reductions has to do with not ticking off earlier adopters, but a lot more of it is about addressing gripes about range anxiety. As battery improvements keep progressing, the federal tax credit sunsets for more automakers and range and fast charging speeds increase to points where few would complain about range anxiety, we'll probably see more price cuts or new entries into the field that start at lower sticker prices relative to their ICE competitors.
Anyhow, let me know if I'm missing something here or if it seems roughly accurate!
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 04-06-2021 at 08:51 AM..
I think I might want one. Having been in a McLaren doing a 1/4 mile, I can appreciate how fast this must be. Too bad its sold out for probably a long time.
I suspect that at some point that'll stop, because I can't imagine there's a huge chunk of people that would demand four digit mile range.
The Tesla Model S Longest Range EV. Starting Price: $81,990 | Range 373 miles.
The Land Rover Discovery is longest range ICE on one tank at 594 miles with a tank capacity of 90 litres.
The 2021 Toyota RAV4 Prime 4WD has an EPA range: 600 miles with a tank capacity of 55 litres.
The 2021 Toyota Prius Prime has an EPA range: 640 miles with a tank capacity of 43 litres.
If you really want long range then buy a plug in hybrid (called Prime in Toyota branding). Most people want to stop at least every six hours to walk around or to use the toilet.
I don't think most normal priced EV's (under $40K) will ever go over 300 miles. There will always be a weight penalty on the size of the battery.
The Tesla Model S Longest Range EV. Starting Price: $81,990 | Range 373 miles.
The Land Rover Discovery is longest range ICE on one tank at 594 miles with a tank capacity of 90 litres.
The 2021 Toyota RAV4 Prime 4WD has an EPA range: 600 miles with a tank capacity of 55 litres.
The 2021 Toyota Prius Prime has an EPA range: 640 miles with a tank capacity of 43 litres.
If you really want long range then buy a plug in hybrid (called Prime in Toyota branding). Most people want to stop at least every six hours to walk around or to use the toilet.
I don't think most normal priced EV's (under $40K) will ever go over 300 miles. There will always be a weight penalty on the size of the battery.
A new Model S Long Range is now rated at 412 miles of range though that's not shipping until probably a month or two from now--of vehicles already shipped, the highest are Model S's shipped towards the end of last year at 402 miles of range. There's likely to be a few 500+ mile range vehicles by some time this or next year. They will be pricey though.
The longest range version of the Model S at its debut less than a decade ago was rated at 265 miles of range and now the comparatively cheap Chevrolet Bolt gets 259 miles of range even though its innards have only seen minor updates since its debut. If the projections based on the history of actual median cost per kWh manufacturer's are purchasing their battery packs remotely hold true, then an under $40K at 2021 USD value (y'know, because there's the spectre of hyperinflation) car that goes 300+ mile will happen in the next few years as well as EVs with 600+ miles of range.
Part of why battery prices have improved has to due with far less material being needed per kWh, so the weight penalty you're talking about becomes less and less per kWh.
Of course, having a very long range isn't a priority for most people I think. It's more about just having sufficient range. The ability to charge at home or work for some people changes that factor quite a bit to make it not completely comparable as does the longer refueling times at stations. For those who can charge at home, work, or some other place they frequent while parked, the "sufficient" range will probably be lower, while those who do not have that option, "sufficient" would be higher and there'd be more of a priority on fast charging.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 04-07-2021 at 04:17 PM..
A new Model S Long Range is now rated at 412 miles of range though that's not shipping until probably a month or two from now--of vehicles already shipped, the highest are Model S's shipped towards the end of last year at 402 miles of range. There's likely to be a few 500+ mile range vehicles by some time this or next year. They will be pricey though.
The longest range version of the Model S at its debut less than a decade ago was rated at 265 miles of range and now the comparatively cheap Chevrolet Bolt gets 259 miles of range even though its innards have only seen minor updates since its debut. If the projections based on the history of actual median cost per kWh manufacturer's are purchasing their battery packs remotely hold true, then an under $40K at 2021 USD value (y'know, because there's the spectre of hyperinflation) car that goes 300+ mile will happen in the next few years as well as EVs with 600+ miles of range.
Part of why battery prices have improved has to due with far less material being needed per kWh, so the weight penalty you're talking about becomes less and less per kWh.
Labor and materials' costs remain about the same this year, but it will be higher in years to come. The only way to make it cheaper is to have the batteries built in countries where labor is cheap. The consumer may feel good about the talks relating to cheaper batteries, but in reality the automaker is passing down the cost of the battery to the buyer via the automobile. Are automobiles getting cheaper from year to year?
Just look at the price of a 12-volt battery five years ago, and the price of the same battery today. The only way for products to cost less depended on supply versus demand. But the only way for supply to exist depends on product availability (minerals and plastics). The higher cost, from automobiles to family homes, is higher each year. We earn more these days, but we also pay more.
Labor and materials' costs remain the same this year, and will be higher in years to come. The only way to make it cheaper is to have the batteries built in countries where labor is cheap. The consumer may feel good about the talks relating to cheaper batteries, but in reality the automaker is passing down the cost of the battery to the buyer via the automobile. Are automobiles getting cheaper for year to year?
Just look at the price of a 12-volt battery five years ago, and the price of the same battery today. The only way for products to cost less depended on supply versus demand. But the only way for supply to exist depends on product availability. The higher cost, from automobiles to family homes, is higher each year. We earn more, but spend more along the cost of living.
You're missing a very crucial part of the equation. Demand for various lithium-ion batteries have skyrocketed over the past decade from all kinds of uses including for EVs. With all that demand, the price per kg of a lot of the materials actually went up and has spiked at various points and potentially labor has as well over the last decade. However, manufacturer's are on average still buying batteries at much lower per kWh costs year after year.
So what accounts for battery prices still going down per kWh of capacity despite higher per kg material costs and greater demand?
Actual technological advancements where the amount of kg of this or that has been reduced for each kWh of capacity you get from the battery. That's something you need to account for, because even if the price of lithium, nickel, and cobalt per kg keep shooting up due to demand, what happens when you're using a fraction of the amount of it for a kWh of capacity compared to several years ago? You still end up with lower battery costs per kWh (and generally a lighter and smaller battery for the capacity to boot). The battery chemistries have changed quite a bit over the decade. The gravimetric and volumetric density has gotten better. There's a lot less material you need for the same amount of capacity due to these changes in chemistry and manufacturing processes. Yea, of course it still takes labor to mine those materials and other parts of the process, but you now need far less material for the same utility value (and has the bonus of being lighter and taking up less space in an EV for any given capacity).
A 12-volt battery doesn't really mean anything unless you give it context in what its usage is. Is it a high density rechargeable lithium-ion battery used as a traction battery, because those have certainly gotten a lot better. I've also noticed a difference in the price and longevity of rechargeable AA batteries though.
Just to be clear, you do understand that despite a massive growth in the use of lithium-ion batteries each and every year over the last decade for many purposes including EVs, automakers have been buying batteries at lower costs per kWh on average with each passing year?
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 04-07-2021 at 04:51 PM..
The Tesla Model S Longest Range EV. Starting Price: $81,990 | Range 373 miles.
The Land Rover Discovery is longest range ICE on one tank at 594 miles with a tank capacity of 90 litres.
The 2021 Toyota RAV4 Prime 4WD has an EPA range: 600 miles with a tank capacity of 55 litres.
The 2021 Toyota Prius Prime has an EPA range: 640 miles with a tank capacity of 43 litres.
If you really want long range then buy a plug in hybrid (called Prime in Toyota branding). Most people want to stop at least every six hours to walk around or to use the toilet.
I don't think most normal priced EV's (under $40K) will ever go over 300 miles. There will always be a weight penalty on the size of the battery.
The current Chevy Bolt has a range of 259 miles. GM's Ultium Batteries, version 1.0, have 60% more charge density than those used in the current Bolt. That battery plant is under construction now, in Lordstown OH. So by that alone, you're about to lose your bet soon. Moreover, the EV powertrains are becoming more efficient, and GM's lead battery engineer said even their smallest and cheapest EVs using Ultium 1.0 will have ranges of at least 300 miles. And this is just Ultium 1.0.
"GM says even its smallest and most-affordable new EVs will have ranges of at least 482 km (300 miles), despite having packs as small as 50 kWh, about 25 percent less energy than the current Bolt. 'If you’re not getting at least 300 miles from a new EV architecture, you’re doing something wrong,' says Andy Oury, GM’s lead engineer for high-voltage battery packs."
See: https://spectrum.ieee.org/transporta...esla-batteries
The Goodenough and other solid state batteries are much more potent than some of you seem to realize. That battery is expected to provide more than twice the energy density of todays top batteries. It will also weigh much less as it is fire proof. It is also claimed to possess much longer life and charge much faster.
The real question is when. 2023? 2025? 2030? Should be getting some real signs over the next couple of years. But it is coming.
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