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I've posted this before and it's like people can't even read.
Much of the savings due to battery costs won't be passed onto the consumer, rather they will keep the savings so they can attain profitability with their EVs...
It's no different than any new product/technology: prices start high because the manufacturer has to recoup upfront design, factory capital investment and start up. Once those costs are depreciated then prices come down. What was once high tech becomes an ordinary commodity, and companies compete on slim margins. Large screen televisions, solar panels, computers, smartphones, etc. all have followed this pattern.
I've posted this before and it's like people can't even read.
Much of the savings due to battery costs won't be passed onto the consumer, rather they will keep the savings so they can attain profitability with their EVs...
That's not how the market works. Any company which thinks this will eventually fail.
I would rather have less range and more HP and lb ft.
Those generally correlate to each other, because they both derive their numbers partially from the size of the battery pack. A larger battery pack generally gives both more range and more power available. I argue that's the main thing that Tesla did right in realizing that they correlate with each other and then targeting vehicles high performance, luxury performance vehicles from the outset before scale and improvements meant battery EVs could expand out of that segment.
You're missing a very crucial part of the equation. Demand for various lithium-ion batteries have skyrocketed over the past decade from all kinds of uses including for EVs. With all that demand, the price per kg of a lot of the materials actually went up and has spiked at various points and potentially labor has as well over the last decade. However, manufacturer's are on average still buying batteries at much lower per kWh costs year after year.
So what accounts for battery prices still going down per kWh of capacity despite higher per kg material costs and greater demand?
Actual technological advancements where the amount of kg of this or that has been reduced for each kWh of capacity you get from the battery. That's something you need to account for, because even if the price of lithium, nickel, and cobalt per kg keep shooting up due to demand, what happens when you're using a fraction of the amount of it for a kWh of capacity compared to several years ago? You still end up with lower battery costs per kWh (and generally a lighter and smaller battery for the capacity to boot). The battery chemistries have changed quite a bit over the decade. The gravimetric and volumetric density has gotten better. There's a lot less material you need for the same amount of capacity due to these changes in chemistry and manufacturing processes. Yea, of course it still takes labor to mine those materials and other parts of the process, but you now need far less material for the same utility value (and has the bonus of being lighter and taking up less space in an EV for any given capacity).
A 12-volt battery doesn't really mean anything unless you give it context in what its usage is. Is it a high density rechargeable lithium-ion battery used as a traction battery, because those have certainly gotten a lot better. I've also noticed a difference in the price and longevity of rechargeable AA batteries though.
Just to be clear, you do understand that despite a massive growth in the use of lithium-ion batteries each and every year over the last decade for many purposes including EVs, automakers have been buying batteries at lower costs per kWh on average with each passing year?
When demand goes up, supply must also go up. This supply comes from mineral extraction-which by the way-must also increase. And this labor cost is not going to come down, nor is the battery-building labor costs unless batteries can be built with cheap labor. Government incentives help the buyer and the producer, but the bottomline is that the automaker has to pass the cost to the automobile buyer. The buyer buys an EV for a certain price, and the EV in turn includes a battery.
It's no different than any new product/technology: prices start high because the manufacturer has to recoup upfront design, factory capital investment and start up. Once those costs are depreciated then prices come down. What was once high tech becomes an ordinary commodity, and companies compete on slim margins. Large screen televisions, solar panels, computers, smartphones, etc. all have followed this pattern.
Yep and early adopters like myself pay a higher price to have the newer technology. My brother on the other hand, loves the idea of EV but is a late adopter waiting for the tech to get better and cost to go lower.
When demand goes up, supply must also go up. This supply comes from mineral extraction-which by the way-must also increase. And this labor cost is not going to come down, nor is the battery-building labor costs unless batteries can be built with cheap labor. Government incentives help the buyer and the producer, but the bottomline is that the automaker has to pass the cost to the automobile buyer. The buyer buys an EV for a certain price, and the EV in turn includes a battery.
Does your highlighting just one part of the post mean that you didn't read any of the rest of it?
No one is saying that prices for battery materials is going to go down. It's certainly trended up over the last decade as there's been a massive increase in the use of lithium-ion batteries for many applications including EVs. Prices have generally trended upwards over the last decade and the price per kg of materials has generally gone up. Labor costs have also increased especially as wages in China have gotten higher and higher and there's some modicum of environmental regulation that's upped production costs.
However, despite these increases in both material and labor costs and a skyrocketing of demand for lithium-ion batteries, year after year over the last decade we've seen that in real life automakers have been purchasing batteries for lower prices per kWh with each passing year with a cumulative decrease of about 89% cost over the last decade. This should trigger you to then ask, knowing that with skyrocketing demand having caused the material costs to go up and labor costs have kept edging upwards, how is it possible that the automakers are purchasing batteries at lower prices per kWh (whether they use those lower costs to make a larger profit margin or to cram more kWhs of capacity into the vehicles they sell or to cut prices)?
Spoiler
I'll highlight part of the reason for you:
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler
You're missing a very crucial part of the equation. Demand for various lithium-ion batteries have skyrocketed over the past decade from all kinds of uses including for EVs. With all that demand, the price per kg of a lot of the materials actually went up and has spiked at various points and potentially labor has as well over the last decade. However, manufacturer's are on average still buying batteries at much lower per kWh costs year after year.
So what accounts for battery prices still going down per kWh of capacity despite higher per kg material costs and greater demand?
Actual technological advancements where the amount of kg of this or that has been reduced for each kWh of capacity you get from the battery. That's something you need to account for, because even if the price of lithium, nickel, and cobalt per kg keep shooting up due to demand, what happens when you're using a fraction of the amount of it for a kWh of capacity compared to several years ago? You still end up with lower battery costs per kWh (and generally a lighter and smaller battery for the capacity to boot). The battery chemistries have changed quite a bit over the decade. The gravimetric and volumetric density has gotten better. There's a lot less material you need for the same amount of capacity due to these changes in chemistry and manufacturing processes. Yea, of course it still takes labor to mine those materials and other parts of the process, but you now need far less material for the same utility value (and has the bonus of being lighter and taking up less space in an EV for any given capacity).
A 12-volt battery doesn't really mean anything unless you give it context in what its usage is. Is it a high density rechargeable lithium-ion battery used as a traction battery, because those have certainly gotten a lot better. I've also noticed a difference in the price and longevity of rechargeable AA batteries though.
Just to be clear, you do understand that despite a massive growth in the use of lithium-ion batteries each and every year over the last decade for many purposes including EVs, automakers have been buying batteries at lower costs per kWh on average with each passing year?
Does your highlighting just one part of the post mean that you didn't read any of the rest of it?
No one is saying that prices for battery materials is going to go down. It's certainly trended up over the last decade as there's been a massive increase in the use of lithium-ion batteries for many applications including EVs. Prices have generally trended upwards over the last decade and the price per kg of materials has generally gone up. Labor costs have also increased especially as wages in China have gotten higher and higher and there's some modicum of environmental regulation that's upped production costs.
However, despite these increases in both material and labor costs and a skyrocketing of demand for lithium-ion batteries, year after year over the last decade we've seen that in real life automakers have been purchasing batteries for lower prices per kWh with each passing year with a cumulative decrease of about 89% cost over the last decade. This should trigger you to then ask, knowing that with skyrocketing demand having caused the material costs to go up and labor costs have kept edging upwards, how is it possible that the automakers are purchasing batteries at lower prices per kWh (whether they use those lower costs to make a larger profit margin or to cram more kWhs of capacity into the vehicles they sell or to cut prices)?
Spoiler
I'll highlight part of the reason for you:
From where around the world are the automakers buying the cheaper EV batteries?
AS I mentioned before, the only way for reducing the cost of EV batteries is by having them built in places where labor is cheaper, which is exactly what is happening today. But in years to come every product made (not only batteries) is going to cost more unless made with readily available renewable resources. Non-renewable resources such as metals have individual market values, and these values increase from year to year, as well as labor costs.
While the price of EV batteries has come down, it will still be one of the most expensive component in an EV.
From where around the world are the automakers buying the cheaper EV batteries?
AS I mentioned before, the only way for reducing the cost of EV batteries is by having them built in places where labor is cheaper, which is exactly what is happening today. But in years to come every product made (not only batteries) is going to cost more unless made with readily available renewable resources. Non-renewable resources such as metals have individual market values, and these values increase from year to year, as well as labor costs.
While the price of EV batteries has come down, it will still be one of the most expensive component in an EV.
The manufacture of batteries is a high tech operation with very low labor content...rolls of material run through coating and combining operations. Exactly the sort of operation that fits the north American model
Any substantial labor cost might be in the mining of materials but not in the assembly of the devices.
The manufacture of batteries is a high tech operation with very low labor content...rolls of material run through coating and combining operations. Exactly the sort of operation that fits the north American model
Any substantial labor cost might be in the mining of materials but not in the assembly of the devices.
That may be true, but this process is not EV battery specific. Automated and robot construction systems have been used for several years now, but it takes humans to maintain the automated systems. And don't believe for a minute that humans aren't being used to build EV batteries in China. While circuit boards and other components can be constructed by machines, the assembly lines need humans.
Just look at what it takes to repair an EV battery at an independent shop. To remove and replace and then test the components in one battery takes several hours. This is done by technicians (humans). Labor costs are the highest, and parts second. Not only that, but the warranty won't cover 8 years or 200,000 miles.
That may be true, but this process is not EV battery specific. Automated and robot construction systems have been used for several years now, but it takes humans to maintain the automated systems. And don't believe for a minute that humans aren't being used to build EV batteries in China. While circuit boards and other components can be constructed by machines, the assembly lines need humans.
Just look at what it takes to repair an EV battery at an independent shop. To remove and replace and then test the components in one battery takes several hours. This is done by technicians (humans). Labor costs are the highest, and parts second. Not only that, but the warranty won't cover 8 years or 200,000 miles.
The process for battery production is highly automatable. Much easier than PC board assembly or other more complex assemblies. I did or directed the design of such for around 25 years.
Your article only describes one of the numerous versions. And that is likely all obsoleted for the solid states batteries coming next. And I do not think anyone will repair the cells...only the packs.
And in volume the repair will have little labor. You are confusing a job shop to a factory.
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