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Hopefully within the next 3-5 years we'll see the "EV Premium" pretty much erased. I don't think they need to be level - heck, there are all kinds of option packages even on Everyman vehicles that will run $1.5K-$3.5K for one line item; plus EVs are cheaper to operate and maintain. But paying an extra $15K or so at the lower end as we do now is a little much for many buyers (including me) to swallow.
Based on tech trends, we should see EV's drop to as low as or lower than ECE vehicles by 2025 and beyond. I have about 16K miles on my Tesla Model Y and love it. The advantages on performance, efficiency, maintenance, pollution, smoothness make EV's a better machine than ICE.
We still have a Ram diesel pickup because we bought a camper to drive during the pandemic and also just the use case for a large pickup and it's great for what it does including incredible range with 50 gallon tank and the DEF means it's much cleaner emissions than a gas engine. I've ordered the tri motor Cybertruck so we will have to decide when it's ready whether or not we can go EV on both of our vehicles.
The oil industry is scared. Here in California the fossil fuel companies are sponsoring a television ad that says that the state will kill thousands of jobs if fracking and drilling are prohibited in the state, that adopting electric cars will cost taxpayers billions, 20% more electric capacity will be needed and EVs will cause more "rolling blackouts."
It's a thorny problem. In Kern County oil production is a major employer. That conflicts with the state's desire to stop using fossil fuels. California's oil wells supply about 35% of oil consumed; the rest come from Alaska (18%) and 48% is from foreign sources by ship (mostly Ecuador, Saudi Arabia and Iraq). Very little oil comes here from Texas or Oklahoma -- the shipping is more difficult and expensive than a ship coming from Alaska or the Middle East.
Unfortunately I can't find the ad online -- it's a very dark, gloomy outright anti-EV ad, the first one I've seen. Sorry I can't share it.
The oil industry is scared. Here in California the fossil fuel companies are sponsoring a television ad that says that the state will kill thousands of jobs if fracking and drilling are prohibited in the state, that adopting electric cars will cost taxpayers billions, 20% more electric capacity will be needed and EVs will cause more "rolling blackouts."
It's a thorny problem. In Kern County oil production is a major employer. That conflicts with the state's desire to stop using fossil fuels. California's oil wells supply about 35% of oil consumed; the rest come from Alaska (18%) and 48% is from foreign sources by ship (mostly Ecuador, Saudi Arabia and Iraq). Very little oil comes here from Texas or Oklahoma -- the shipping is more difficult and expensive than a ship coming from Alaska or the Middle East.
Unfortunately I can't find the ad online -- it's a very dark, gloomy outright anti-EV ad, the first one I've seen. Sorry I can't share it.
1. The grid will have to be upgraded to account for the added demand....the utilities should already be working on this and I would guess they are
2. The total energy consumed will be reduced by switching to EV's so it's a total money saver and energy saver in the long run....bonus is additional jobs to build the upgraded grid.
3. Anti fracking laws will increase prices thereby, further lowering the cost of EV's compared to ICE vehicles
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Traveler
1. The grid will have to be upgraded to account for the added demand....the utilities should already be working on this and I would guess they are
2. The total energy consumed will be reduced by switching to EV's so it's a total money saver and energy saver in the long run....bonus is additional jobs to build the upgraded grid.
3. Anti fracking laws will increase prices thereby, further lowering the cost of EV's compared to ICE vehicles
In California where the EV is the most popular, the grid is already strained, and there are blackouts for fire danger. The cleanest electricity is hydro, and they are in another drought year. For clean air it wouldn't be helpful to have a lot of electric vehicles running on electricity from natural gas, oil or coal. Solar and wind are just not enough for the demand and have their own problems, such as killing endangered birds, and toxic waste from manufacturing solar panels. I suppose people could keep an inverter generator on hand, but using a 4000W generator, it will take you 24 hours to fully charge. This means using several tanks of gas. A 4,000 watt will weigh 100 lbs. and cost over $1,000.
In California where the EV is the most popular, the grid is already strained, and there are blackouts for fire danger. The cleanest electricity is hydro, and they are in another drought year. For clean air it wouldn't be helpful to have a lot of electric vehicles running on electricity from natural gas, oil or coal. Solar and wind are just not enough for the demand and have their own problems, such as killing endangered birds, and toxic waste from manufacturing solar panels. I suppose people could keep an inverter generator on hand, but using a 4000W generator, it will take you 24 hours to fully charge. This means using several tanks of gas. A 4,000 watt will weigh 100 lbs. and cost over $1,000.
Because EV's use so much less energy, it would still make sense even if your grid was coal dominant like China's. We have about 60% of our grid nationwide powered by carbon based energy and going down so that's a double bonus. Finally, not burning poisonous gasses n your garage and neighborhood poisoning your family and neighbors is a triple bonus.
I do agree the utilities need to get to work expanding the grid.
Because EV's use so much less energy, it would still make sense even if your grid was coal dominant like China's. We have about 60% of our grid nationwide powered by carbon based energy and going down so that's a double bonus. Finally, not burning poisonous gasses n your garage and neighborhood poisoning your family and neighbors is a triple bonus.
I do agree the utilities need to get to work expanding the grid.
You are only seeing part of the picture. In reality, there are all kinds poisonous gasses being burned all around you, specially in places where homes and every building in town are heated by boilers, furnaces, and so on. Not only that, but also:
-BBQ grills
-Lawn mowers and tractors
-Chainsaws
-Plumbing work where copper pipes are used
-Fire pits and grills at parks, or campsites
-ICE, automobiles, road graders, snowblowers, cranes, tractor trailers, construction equipment or all kinds
-Aircraft, trains, busses, ships
-Even pot smoking
-Your gas stove, or dryer at home
-Fireplaces and wood/gas stoves
On top of all that, you are inhaling all kinds of chemicals at home. Some of these are natural such as radon, but at lot of others come from cleaning products and deodorizers you use at home. In fact the air you breath at home probably is more polluted than the air outside your home.
1. The grid will have to be upgraded to account for the added demand....the utilities should already be working on this and I would guess they are
2. The total energy consumed will be reduced by switching to EV's so it's a total money saver and energy saver in the long run....bonus is additional jobs to build the upgraded grid.
3. Anti fracking laws will increase prices thereby, further lowering the cost of EV's compared to ICE vehicles
Funny thing is, when I first saw the ad and heard them say "electrical capacity will have to be upgraded by 20%," I thought to myself, "20 percent? That's it? Hey, that's certainly doable!"
Funny thing No. 2: the astroturf oil company PAC, 'Californians for Energy Independence,' is something of an oxymoron. It's the opposite: the more we build of in-state solar and wind, the less dependent we are on the Middle East.
You are only seeing part of the picture. In reality, there are all kinds poisonous gasses being burned all around you, specially in places where homes and every building in town are heated by boilers, furnaces, and so on. Not only that, but also:
-BBQ grills
-Lawn mowers and tractors
-Chainsaws
-Plumbing work where copper pipes are used
-Fire pits and grills at parks, or campsites
-ICE, automobiles, road graders, snowblowers, cranes, tractor trailers, construction equipment or all kinds
-Aircraft, trains, busses, ships
-Even pot smoking
-Your gas stove, or dryer at home
-Fireplaces and wood/gas stoves
On top of all that, you are inhaling all kinds of chemicals at home. Some of these are natural such as radon, but at lot of others come from cleaning products and deodorizers you use at home. In fact the air you breath at home probably is more polluted than the air outside your home.
No I fully see the big picture and severely limit chemicals into my body where I can. My wife also has severe asthma so we have to eliminate any and all chemical smells. So we don't have fireplace, gas stove, gas mower or trimmer, BBQ grill, fire pits, grills, or smoke pot or cigs. We also have the best air purifiers you can buy. We don't take trains, busses, or ships and limit air travel.
So how about trying to purify the air instead of justifying pollution?
In California where the EV is the most popular, the grid is already strained, and there are blackouts for fire danger. The cleanest electricity is hydro, and they are in another drought year. For clean air it wouldn't be helpful to have a lot of electric vehicles running on electricity from natural gas, oil or coal. Solar and wind are just not enough for the demand and have their own problems, such as killing endangered birds, and toxic waste from manufacturing solar panels. I suppose people could keep an inverter generator on hand, but using a 4000W generator, it will take you 24 hours to fully charge. This means using several tanks of gas. A 4,000 watt will weigh 100 lbs. and cost over $1,000.
If the battery improvements that EVs are relying on keep going, then it can increasingly lead to local storage of power both to meet demand when it outstrips supply and to have a source of electricity during intermittent power outages. California's somewhat lucky in having pretty high levels of solar insolation and decent stationary battery storage that's affordable enough can make that combination a pretty decent alternative to an inhouse generator as has been seen in notable examples during both the CA and TX power outages. There is the question of if battery improvements can continue fast enough to keep bringing overall prices down even as demand for batteries keep increasing the cost per kg of materials. So far it's more than kept up with those spikes in demand as even with massive growth in battery demand over the last decade, battery improvements were able to drive the cost per kWh of automotive batteries down by 89% over the course of the 2010s.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RayinAK
You are only seeing part of the picture. In reality, there are all kinds poisonous gasses being burned all around you, specially in places where homes and every building in town are heated by boilers, furnaces, and so on. Not only that, but also:
-BBQ grills
-Lawn mowers and tractors
-Chainsaws
-Plumbing work where copper pipes are used
-Fire pits and grills at parks, or campsites
-ICE, automobiles, road graders, snowblowers, cranes, tractor trailers, construction equipment or all kinds
-Aircraft, trains, busses, ships
-Even pot smoking
-Your gas stove, or dryer at home
-Fireplaces and wood/gas stoves
On top of all that, you are inhaling all kinds of chemicals at home. Some of these are natural such as radon, but at lot of others come from cleaning products and deodorizers you use at home. In fact the air you breath at home probably is more polluted than the air outside your home.
Thank goodness there are growing options for EVs so that there's at least that reduction in emission and that battery improvements are helping making inroads on some applications like leaf blowers. It's obviously not replacing every single application, but it's replacing some to help with emissions and reducing usage of petroleum for those many other uses that can't as easily make the switch.
Funny thing is, when I first saw the ad and heard them say "electrical capacity will have to be upgraded by 20%," I thought to myself, "20 percent? That's it? Hey, that's certainly doable!"
Funny thing No. 2: the astroturf oil company PAC, 'Californians for Energy Independence,' is something of an oxymoron. It's the opposite: the more we build of in-state solar and wind, the less dependent we are on the Middle East.
I agree but we still need some level of carbon based energy because renewable energy is not temporally reliable....I just would like to minimize and one day eliminate carbon based energy if plausible.
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