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We were talking about the power grid in the US. In this case the US would have to generate more electrial power than what it does today. It means that as the nuclear, coal, and other power-generating plans are "phased out," more power-generating plants have to be built to keep with the addd electrical demands. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_phase-out
Well, Morgan Stanley issued a report on auto sales for this past month of February 2021, which included info on EV sales in the US. Some interesting points:
Overall, EV sales in the U.S. were up by almost 40% year over year
Tesla sales still increasing, but their market share (of EVs) has decreased from 81% last February to 69% this February
Ford was primarily responsible for the market share loss by Tesla, with their Mustang Mach-e
On the one hand, I think that "tipping point" is still some years off. On the other hand, those saying that EVs are doomed, that no one wants one, the nation's power grid is ready to collapse, or the technology won't be ready for at least 50 more years, etc, are only going to become more shrill if these EV sales continue their strong growth. I predict rising panic from the most adamant naysayers over the next engineering cycle (5 years).
Not sure how long you plan on living, but I'd guess that the tipping point will be within two engineering cycles (10 years). Next generation batteries are expected within 3-5 years, and they'll make a significant difference in performance and affordability, and that's just one engineering cycle. Meanwhile, charging networks still need work, but they are getting bigger and charging faster every year.
Well, Morgan Stanley issued a report on auto sales for this past month of February 2021, which included info on EV sales in the US. Some interesting points:
Overall, EV sales in the U.S. were up by almost 40% year over year
Tesla sales still increasing, but their market share (of EVs) has decreased from 81% last February to 69% this February
Ford was primarily responsible for the market share loss by Tesla, with their Mustang Mach-e
On the one hand, I think that "tipping point" is still some years off. On the other hand, those saying that EVs are doomed, that no one wants one, the nation's power grid is ready to collapse, or the technology won't be ready for at least 50 more years, etc, are only going to become more shrill if these EV sales continue their strong growth. I predict rising panic from the most adamant naysayers over the next engineering cycle (5 years).
I don't think anybody is saying that EV's aren't here to stay or that the nation's power grid is going to collapse. What most of us are saying in relation to the power grids is that in order for EV technology to be fully implemented, more electrical power has to be generated to meet the added electrical power demand.
I don't think anybody is saying that EV's aren't here to stay or that the nation's power grid is going to collapse. What most of us are saying in relation to the power grids is that in order for EV technology to be fully implemented, more electrical power has to be generated to meet the added electrical power demand.
A lot of people here are saying these things - it's aggressive denial. You are generally more careful in your criticism and you say you don't want one - Alaska is too rural and too cold for them to work well, and you know, right now you're probably right.
P.S. As to the nation needing more power generation capacity for full implementation, I have been saying the same thing. But I've been arguing with people who say it can't be done or that electricity rates are going sky-high. Full implementation is decades off. There is a lot of time for increasing power generation capacity over that time.
A lot of people here are saying these things - it's aggressive denial. You are generally more careful in your criticism and you say you don't want one - Alaska is too rural and too cold for them to work well, and you know, right now you're probably right.
P.S. As to the nation needing more power generation capacity for full implementation, I have been saying the same thing. But I've been arguing with people who say it can't be done or that electricity rates are going sky-high. Full implementation is decades off. There is a lot of time for increasing power generation capacity over that time.
That I don't need nor want an EV has nothing to do to what is to come in relation to EV technology and implementation in The US. The reason why I don't need nor want an EV is because I don't need nor want to get rid of my perfectly working and paid-for vehicles. Why would I want to take money out of my savings or retirement accounts to spend on something I don't need? I am getting-by just fine with what I have: a couple of chainsaws, UTV, river boat, a truck, car, lawn tractor, self-propelled lawn mower, snow blower, etc.
It is a fact that Alaska is too cold and too rural for driving an EV, but also because we don't have electrical electricity like in most places in the lower-48 States. I already said numerous times that metropolitan areas, and neighboring cities in the lower-48 would be fine for EV's as long as the consumers have charging stations available, but in Alaska we don't even have electricity along numerous very long stretches of roads, and even isolated towns. Some of these places don't even have roads connecting them to the rest of Alaska. However, I don't opposed any Alaskan from driving an EV, as much as I don't oppose anybody from owning an EV anywhere around the world. Such things are of a private matter. To each his or her own.
And yes, full EV implementation is not going to take place in ten years in the US. Those are future projections, and only apply to partial EV implementation (cars), and eventually some trucks. The heavy equipment used for mining and construction, as well as tractor/trailers for long distance transport of goods, groceries and the rest will also need time. Road graders, high-speed runway plows and blowers, 30-ton and larger wreckers (towing trucks, dump trucks, long travel trains ad busses, all will take time to develop and implement.
It will take a long time (over 100 hundred years, according to some scientific estimates) for long range commercial transport and cargo aircraft to use batteries instead of jet and other fuels. There is no way for the US military to switch from carbon-base fuels to batteries. This is not going to happen in your lifetime, primarily because of strategic reasons.
That I don't need nor want an EV has nothing to do to what is to come in relation to EV technology an implementation. The reason why I don't need nor want an EV is because I don't need nor want to get rid of my perfectly working and paid-for vehicles. Why would I want to take money out of my savings or retirement accounts to spend on something I don't need? I am getting just fine with what I have: a couple of chainsaws, UTV, river boat, a truck, car, lawn tractor, snow blower...
It is a fact that Alaska is too cold and too rural for driving an EV, but also because we don't have electrical internees like in most places in the lower-48 States. I already said numerous times that metropolitan areas, and neighboring cities would be fine for EV's as long as the consumers have charging stations available, but in Alaska we don't even have electricity along numerous very long stretches of roads, and even isolated towns. Some of these places don't even have roads connecting them to the rest of Alaska.
And yes, full EV implementation is not going to take place in ten years in the US. Those are future projections, and only apply for partial EV implementation. It will take a long time (over 100 hundred years, according to some scientific estimates) for long range commercial transport and cargo aircraft to use batteries instead of jet and other fuels. There is no way for the US military to switch from carbon-base fuels to batteries. This is not going to happen in your lifetime.
I haven't bought an EV yet either, and I don't live in Alaska ;-) I might buy one in 5 years though when the next generation is out, we'll see.
As to airplanes, I totally agree... things can change quickly sometimes with unforeseen innovations, but from what we can see now, due to the need for light weight, high capacity, multiple flights per day, etc, I can't see commercial airlines using electric airliners, not based on what we can see now and coming up soon. You need radical improvements in battery technology to get there - not to get some kind of cute prototype, but to get to competitive aircraft.
Of course it's just my crystal ball, but I can see a "tipping point" in 10 years for personal vehicles. But a tipping point doesn't mean everyone is already driving an EV, which is what I think of when I think of "full implementation". To me the tipping point is when it's become sufficiently attractive, for most people, that it becomes the default choice for most new car purchases. Doesn't mean everyone has one, or even everyone is buying one, but it's the "new normal" if you will. I think that will come from shifts in consumer choices long before the kind of 30-35 year horizon that is being kicked around when Ford and GM say they plan to stop producing ICE vehicles, or Massachusetts says they'll outlaw sales of new ICE vehicles in 35 years. And even after those horizons, some people will drive existing ICE vehicles, so there will be a "long tail" on their use.
I haven't bought an EV yet either, and I don't live in Alaska ;-) I might buy one in 5 years though when the next generation is out, we'll see.
As to airplanes, I totally agree... things can change quickly sometimes with unforeseen innovations, but from what we can see now, due to the need for light weight, high capacity, multiple flights per day, etc, I can't see commercial airlines using electric airliners, not based on what we can see now and coming up soon. You need radical improvements in battery technology to get there - not to get some kind of cute prototype, but to get to competitive aircraft.
Of course it's just my crystal ball, but I can see a "tipping point" in 10 years for personal vehicles. But a tipping point doesn't mean everyone is already driving an EV, which is what I think of when I think of "full implementation". To me the tipping point is when it's become sufficiently attractive, for most people, that it becomes the default choice for most new car purchases. Doesn't mean everyone has one, or even everyone is buying one, but it's the "new normal" if you will. I think that will come from shifts in consumer choices long before the kind of 30-35 year horizon that is being kicked around when Ford and GM say they plan to stop producing ICE vehicles, or Massachusetts says they'll outlaw sales of new ICE vehicles in 35 years. And even after those horizons, some people will drive existing ICE vehicles, so there will be a "long tail" on their use.
I agree with you. Partial implementation can take place in a lot of places around the world. I can see happening in Hawaii where driving distances are short, with very comfortable ambient temperatures. I would think that an EV would be fine in any town or city, specially a place where one can drive back and forth from home/work (for example), and so on. M.ost cities also have mass transportation (buses, subways or trains, etc.).
Regardless of vehicle type one wants or needs to buy, this is an individual and private thing. Its purchase should not be government mandated.
I haven't bought an EV yet either, and I don't live in Alaska ;-) I might buy one in 5 years though when the next generation is out, we'll see.
As to airplanes, I totally agree... things can change quickly sometimes with unforeseen innovations, but from what we can see now, due to the need for light weight, high capacity, multiple flights per day, etc, I can't see commercial airlines using electric airliners, not based on what we can see now and coming up soon. You need radical improvements in battery technology to get there - not to get some kind of cute prototype, but to get to competitive aircraft.
Of course it's just my crystal ball, but I can see a "tipping point" in 10 years for personal vehicles. But a tipping point doesn't mean everyone is already driving an EV, which is what I think of when I think of "full implementation". To me the tipping point is when it's become sufficiently attractive, for most people, that it becomes the default choice for most new car purchases. Doesn't mean everyone has one, or even everyone is buying one, but it's the "new normal" if you will. I think that will come from shifts in consumer choices long before the kind of 30-35 year horizon that is being kicked around when Ford and GM say they plan to stop producing ICE vehicles, or Massachusetts says they'll outlaw sales of new ICE vehicles in 35 years. And even after those horizons, some people will drive existing ICE vehicles, so there will be a "long tail" on their use.
I do think new vehicle market share in the US will be predominantly EVs within some year this decade and that's basically for all of the US states save for Alaska. This is different from all vehicles being EVs since vehicles last for quite a while and so many vehicles on the road today and in the next few years will likely still be on the road when that happens.
I'd be curious as to what design ideas come up for commercial ev flight aside from the obvious of just needing greater energy density for batteries. Assisted take-off? Beamed power and collectors on the plane? More and distributed motors? I think with planes, it would be pretty likely that the batteries would have to be swapped unless fast charging improvements somehow greatly exceed both cost and density improvements.
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