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Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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I really don't see price as a major reason for holding back the EV. We paid $36,000 and $32,000 for our last two. Wasn't the Tesla Model 3 selling for $35,000? The Leaf is as low as $27,000, even $19,000 with the tax credit, and the Bolt starts at $36,000. The average ICE vehicle sale in 2021 was $38,960.
KBB look at average (mean) transaction prices. Cars.com looked at median listing prices on their website.
I wouldn't get too far into drawing a lot of conclusions that they're comparable as they're not. $42,250 is KBB's estimate is of mean transaction price whereas $38,800 is the median listing price on cars.com. Listings aren't a reflection of transactions. But I get it, KBB only lists the mean so a median listing price is at least something. But really it's not that useful.
Forester sells in ten days whereas a Giulia takes around 120 days to sell. Just looking at listings and pretending that's representative of transactions at equal weighting is grossly inaccurate. There are currently 1,175 brand-new Giulias on cars.com and 2,148 Foresters listed on cars.com. If you pretend that listings represents transactions, you would then say that Subaru sells about twice as many Foresters as Alfa Romeo sells Giulias. In 2020 there were 177,000 Foresters sold, therefore that must mean there were approximately 90,000 Giulias sold. There were not. There were fewer than 9,000 Giulias sold in 2020. Which makes perfect sense if you also happen to know that a Forester sells in an average of 10 days whereas a Giulia takes around 120 days to sell. Listings do not reflect transactions.
I agree with you on inflation. My guess, which is admittedly likely only as good as Elon Musk's guesses on the subject, is we won't see EVs being cost competitive at the lower end until at least 2030. In 2030 a Civic LX/EX will no longer be 20-25k. Perhaps it will be 25-30k by the time EVs are competitive at that low-end price.
On the other hand, that's not to say EVs aren't cost competitive at other price points. Unlike other EVs one might get in and feel disappointed at the scope of bean counting necessary to get them even as close to the cost of an ICE as they are, the e-tron is basically just like getting in a Q7. Styling is a bit more futuristic but you're not immediately assaulted by oceans of hard plastic. It's an interior that doesn't loudly proclaim that it's made from your neighbor's recycling bin contents and isn't afraid to show it. The e-tron is still $5,000 too expensive and needs a bit of range and some refinement on things like the braking/regen. That's a difficult thing to do. Most cars don't get it right Tesla doesn't bother. Brake pedal is for friction brakes only on Teslas. Audi maybe isn't ready for that level of 1 pedal driving experience, but there's a reason Tesla even give you the option of using your foot to control the regenerative braking.
At any rate, e-tron is really close to competitive with Q7. Over in P-car world, the Taycan I would say is cost competitive with the Panamera. I'd go even farther and say unless you're looking at the Taycan/Panamera for a lot of long-distance driving, the Taycan is already the better buy for most people. If you can get over the EQS looking like a melted plastic egg I'd bet it similarly comes out being right up there with the S-class. At the high end, EVs are now damn close if not already competitive. Lower end with the ID4/Mach-E versus RAV4/CR-V market.... not so close. Good 10k plus overpriced with too much neighbor's recycling bin on the inside at the 40-50k price they're asking.
I understand what you're saying about cars.com listings might or might not be representative of the total new vehicle sales market. I posted it as there wasn't much more conclusive data (maybe PacoMartin can help with that).
However, I also posted a list of the top 25 sellers for 2021 thus far and certainly that doesn't have a preponderance of 25K and under for even base MSRP not including destination fee vehicles with it being pretty likely those top 25 make up the lion's share of US new vehicle sales given the five fold or so difference between the top ranked seller and the 25th slots. That list doesn't get to a base MSRP of 25K until the 5th ranked Honda CR-V and that has a base price of $25,750 without destination fee, then the Camry at 7th place $25,295 both of which are likely to have the vast majority of vehicle sales above $25K. It's the 8th place slot with the Corolla at base MSRP at $20,075 and the 9th place slot at $21,700 base MSRP where you finally get vehicles where the majority of its sales and likely transaction prices are at or below $25K. At that point, just the top seller, the Ford F-Series sold more than both combined. From there, you have to jump down to the 24th slot before you get to the $19,510 base MSRP Nissan Sentra before you find another vehicle where it's reasonable to assume that the majority of its sales are at $25K or under and that's the end of the top twenty five sellers list. That's three vehicles at the seventh, eighth, and 24th slots in a top 25 best sellers of 2021 so far where it's reasonable to assume the majority of those vehicles sold at an average transaction price of $25K or below, so I don't think this makes for a very compelling argument that there's that many $25K or below transaction price sales for new vehicles in the US these days.
I may be misunderstanding what you're saying though--what percentage of new vehicle sales in the US this year are you estimating have transaction prices at $25K. I was thinking you were claiming that a majority of sales is that, but perhaps you aren't. I'm guessing less than a fifth, but maybe that's what you were thinking as well, and I just didn't understand that.
I think interior size-wise, e-tron is more like a Q8 than the Q7. I also read rumors that an e-tron Q8 is meant to be an eventual replacement for the current e-tron some time later this decade, and that would make sense to me.
I think the fairly long-standing estimate that's still mentioned fairly recently is that BEVs will become cost-competitive with BEVs across virtually all segments when battery prices hit $100 a kWh. Last survey I saw was that the average price for automakers on traction batteries was at $137/kWh in 2020 and the estimate for when $100/kWh is reached is some time 2023-2025. I'd expect automakers to take a while to adjust vehicles pricing for hitting that mark and likely via a revision in designs, so I'm guessing a competitive $25K or under EV for mass production and sale in the US is shortly after that point. Given that's projected to come within a few years, I think a complete sunset out of federal incentives for the purchase price of EVs is fine having a limit of five years from now.
I think the Mach-e is just a slight cut above the RAV4/CR-V bracket. At base price, it has better suspension, better performance, nicer interior, so it makes sense its base price is higher though arguably not that much higher. The ID.4 though really needs that federal tax incentive and estimated savings on refueling to make any sense for its price. The ID.4 is expected to come down in price once they start making them in the US next year, but I think it'll certainly need a further drop in price especially if federal incentives wind down.
#9 Civic 152k
#8 Corolla 155k
#7 Camry 177k (27.5k for the SE model inc destination, so nowadays with nobody getting discounts on anything not quiet 25)
#6-4 Likewise, MSRP for the models people buy between 27-30k inc destination)
So basically half the top ten list is around 25k.
There really aren't that many 70k vehicle sales. https://www.businessinsider.com/ford...ssovers-2021-6
F-series in the 50 range per Cox which does a lot of the pricing analysis. With chip shortage right now, no more 10k off MSRP on the pickem ups these days.
CR-V class is somewhere around 10k overpriced versus a ICE (Mach-E, ID4). They come with a lot of baubles so while they cost $15,000 more than than a CR-V or RAV4, they really aren't base models either. Take the ID4, 82 kwh pack (77 usable). Price dropping form 137 to 100 per kwh, means 37X82=$3,000 in savings as far as manufacturing cost. Now it's possible that VW is also deciding that they're just going to take all of the $7,500 tax credit for themselves because they can. They'll pull a GM just throw cash at the hood once they run out of credits until they get around to dropping he price. So while an ID4 is 40k today, by 2023-2025 when they run out of credits they'll drop the price (or just throw $10,000 in discounts) and the price will be $30k and thus competitive enough with ICEs.
Personally, I don't see it. But like I said, I'm not holding myself out as being anymore accurate on the subject that Elon Musk is. If I'm wrong about it and you can buy a new ID4 in 2023-2025 for 30k without government incentives, I certainly won't be salty about it. I'd say more like 2035 it may happen. Constant 2021 dollars, of course.
#9 Civic 152k
#8 Corolla 155k
#7 Camry 177k (27.5k for the SE model inc destination, so nowadays with nobody getting discounts on anything not quiet 25)
#6-4 Likewise, MSRP for the models people buy between 27-30k inc destination)
So basically half the top ten list is around 25k.
There really aren't that many 70k vehicle sales. https://www.businessinsider.com/ford...ssovers-2021-6
F-series in the 50 range per Cox which does a lot of the pricing analysis. With chip shortage right now, no more 10k off MSRP on the pickem ups these days.
CR-V class is somewhere around 10k overpriced versus a ICE (Mach-E, ID4). They come with a lot of baubles so while they cost $15,000 more than than a CR-V or RAV4, they really aren't base models either. Take the ID4, 82 kwh pack (77 usable). Price dropping form 137 to 100 per kwh, means 37X82=$3,000 in savings as far as manufacturing cost. Now it's possible that VW is also deciding that they're just going to take all of the $7,500 tax credit for themselves because they can. They'll pull a GM just throw cash at the hood once they run out of credits until they get around to dropping he price. So while an ID4 is 40k today, by 2023-2025 when they run out of credits they'll drop the price (or just throw $10,000 in discounts) and the price will be $30k and thus competitive enough with ICEs.
Personally, I don't see it. But like I said, I'm not holding myself out as being anymore accurate on the subject that Elon Musk is. If I'm wrong about it and you can buy a new ID4 in 2023-2025 for 30k without government incentives, I certainly won't be salty about it. I'd say more like 2035 it may happen. Constant 2021 dollars, of course.
So three actual 25K and below vehicles in the entire list and they slot at 8th, 9th, and 24th. III seriously doubt those other vehicles are getting purchased at 25K at anywhere close to majority. No one is saying there are a lot of 70K vehicle sales. I'm saying they likely bunch close to several thousand around the median which is probably just below the mean average. Like if the median transaction price is $39K, then I wouldn't be surprised if half of the transactions were within 10K of that. I'm still not quite sure what you think is the proportion of vehicles this year will be selling for $25K (or $25,999.99) or less. Are you thinking majority? A third? A quarter?
I don't see how Mach-e s CR-V class, but agree ID.4 is. Also agree that ID.4 prices will drop even further around the time when the credits run out--and that's also why I don't think we should further extend out the credits. We've seen what happens in other countries when EV credits go down or become more restrictive in EVs dropping their prices. Hell, we've seen that here with the Bolt.
I didn't say 2023-2025 for the ID.4 at 30K, though maybe that's possible. I said that's when the price parity mark for batteries get reached, but I think it's a refresh after that for that to really work out. ID.4 is fairly new and I doubt it'll get a refresh that quickly.
Elon Musk does not control battery prices. He's right on some things and others he's either delayed or just plain wrong, but he's not the EV industry. EV manufacturing goes well beyond Tesla, and it's only the US / NA where Tesla is so incredibly dominant in sales, but NA EV sales are small fry compared to the global market.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-15-2021 at 08:57 PM..
Yup, right now probably two of the top ten best sellers are under 25k. Ahh, the good old days when nobody paid MSRP. You'd be doing good to get an Camry or Accord now for 26-27k whereas you could pick them up all day long for 22k not so long ago.
US Sales Top 26 vehicles in first half of 2021 (collectively % of all sales)
362,031 Ford F-Series 4.4%
313,069 Ram Pickup 8.2%
291,321 Chevrolet Silverado 11.7%
221,195 Toyota RAV4 14.4%
213,199 Honda CR-V 17.0%
182,288 Nissan Rogue 19.2%
177,671 Toyota Camry 21.3%
155,531 Toyota Corolla 23.2%
152,956 Honda Civic 25.1%
144,380 Toyota Highlander 26.8%
139,296 Toyota Tacoma 28.5%
138,411 GMC Sierra 30.2%
118,667 Chevrolet Equinox 31.6%
118,666 Jeep Wrangler 33.0%
118,241 Ford Explorer 34.5%
114,707 Honda Accord 35.9%
107,924 Jeep Grand Cherokee 37.2%
95,965 Subaru Forester 38.3%
88,113 Mazda CX-5 39.4%
87,619 Subaru Outback 40.5%
85,492 Ford Escape 41.5%
83,517 Hyundai Tuscon 42.5%
83,431 Chevrolet Traverse 43.5%
77,859 Nissan Sentra 44.4%
76,560 Honda Pilot 45.4%
76,428 Tesla Model Y 46.3%
Magazine article only listed top 25, but being consistent with this thread included #26.
In order for BEV to reach 50%, it is not necessary to have a model #1, but a good percentage must be in the top 10 as over 1 in 4 sales are from the top 10.
Last edited by PacoMartin; 09-16-2021 at 05:54 AM..
Yup, right now probably two of the top ten best sellers are under 25k. Ahh, the good old days when nobody paid MSRP. You'd be doing good to get an Camry or Accord now for 26-27k whereas you could pick them up all day long for 22k not so long ago.
So are you saying you think that two out of ten (a fifth) of transaction prices this year will be at $25K ($25,999.99) and under? Why not just explicitly say the proportion that you're thinking? One out of five isn't that unreasonable. I think it's lower than that, but at least it appears we're agreeing that it's nowhere near the majority of the market.
One thing to note is that the two of the top ten sellers which likely do sell for $25K and under are near the bottom of the top ten--they combined sold less than the just the one second-place finisher. Not too long ago, with MY 2015, the Camry had a $22,970K msrp. Cars got more expensive for the same models and at the same time many of the less expensive models were completely eliminated from sale in the US.
What is the proportion of $25,999.99 and under new vehicle sales this year you think is accurate?
US Sales Top 26 vehicles in first half of 2021 (collectively % of all sales)
362,031 Ford F-Series 4.4%
313,069 Ram Pickup 8.2%
291,321 Chevrolet Silverado 11.7%
221,195 Toyota RAV4 14.4%
213,199 Honda CR-V 17.0%
182,288 Nissan Rogue 19.2%
177,671 Toyota Camry 21.3%
155,531 Toyota Corolla 23.2%
152,956 Honda Civic 25.1%
144,380 Toyota Highlander 26.8%
139,296 Toyota Tacoma 28.5%
138,411 GMC Sierra 30.2%
118,667 Chevrolet Equinox 31.6%
118,666 Jeep Wrangler 33.0%
118,241 Ford Explorer 34.5%
114,707 Honda Accord 35.9%
107,924 Jeep Grand Cherokee 37.2%
95,965 Subaru Forester 38.3%
88,113 Mazda CX-5 39.4%
87,619 Subaru Outback 40.5%
85,492 Ford Escape 41.5%
83,517 Hyundai Tuscon 42.5%
83,431 Chevrolet Traverse 43.5%
77,859 Nissan Sentra 44.4%
76,560 Honda Pilot 45.4%
76,428 Tesla Model Y 46.3%
Magazine article only listed top 25, but being consistent with this thread included #26.
In order for BEV to reach 50%, it is not necessary to have a model #1, but a good percentage must be in the top 10 as over 1 in 4 sales are from the top 10.
So are you saying you think that two out of ten (a fifth) of transaction prices this year will be at $25K ($25,999.99) and under? Why not just explicitly say the proportion that you're thinking? One out of five isn't that unreasonable. I think it's lower than that, but at least it appears we're agreeing that it's nowhere near the majority of the market.
One thing to note is that the two of the top ten sellers which likely do sell for $25K and under are near the bottom of the top ten--they combined sold less than the just the one second-place finisher. Not too long ago, with MY 2015, the Camry had a $22,970K msrp. Cars got more expensive for the same models and at the same time many of the less expensive models were completely eliminated from sale in the US.
What is the proportion of $25,999.99 and under new vehicle sales this year you think is accurate?
Nope. Two of the top ten best sellers are available for an MSRP under 25k. Transaction price it was more like 5 of the top ten were available under 25K last year since stuff like the Camry and Rogue were also easily under 25k in transaction prices. Not so today, part of why the transaction price is up so shortly. Average transaction price was somewhere around $4,500 below MSRP prior to chip shortage, now paying over MSRP is probably the norm.
I don't have a histogram for you. I can pull a number out between my butt cheeks, but it would just be that. Not sure why you're all that interested in any number I'd pull out of my butt cheeks.
Nope. Two of the top ten best sellers are available for an MSRP under 25k. Transaction price it was more like 5 of the top ten were available under 25K last year since stuff like the Camry and Rogue were also easily under 25k in transaction prices. Not so today, part of why the transaction price is up so shortly. Average transaction price was somewhere around $4,500 below MSRP prior to chip shortage, now paying over MSRP is probably the norm.
I don't have a histogram for you. I can pull a number out between my butt cheeks, but it would just be that. Not sure why you're all that interested in any number I'd pull out of my butt cheeks.
Sure, I'm asking what you think is the percentage of vehicles being sold for $25K or less. This is pertinent to how important this market is for vehicles like BEVs.
Camry and Rogue base MSRPs all went up and they still have destination fees and sometimes people don't pick the base trim and/or they add options. Even without a shortage, it's unlikely the majority of them will have been sold on such deals that they would have gotten majority $25K or under on them. So what percentage do you think? PacoMartin can help us sniff out the data, but what is this percentage you're thinking of?
Two of the top ten sellers are available for MSRP under $25K and I can fully believe the majority of them actually sell for $25K and under. However, they are both towards the end of the top ten and their combined sales thus far are less than the second place slot's sales numbers. You were talking about two $25K vehicles for every single $70K vehicles as if this were typical of the market. I doubt that's accurate. It's more likely that the median price is somewhat short of the mean at something like high $30K and then the majority of sales are within $10K of that which would be outside of the $25K and under market. It also happens to be that most EV sales are likely within the range I mentioned. This makes sense if the idea is to sell more BEVs. For the top ten, the $25K and under base MSRP vehicles make up about 14% of sales. For the top 25, they make up about 10% of sales. Is there a very long tail of $25K and under base MSRP vehicles after that you think it exists that would greatly skew things up? If anything, I would think the long tail would make it trend worse for the $25K and under stats since there just aren't that many $25K and under vehicles available these days and which has essentially nothing to do with BEVs, and just about everything to do with inflation and a pronounced shift away from small sedans and sedans in general.
So again, how crucial is this market? What percentage of total sales do you think $25K and under new vehicle transaction deals take?
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-16-2021 at 10:26 AM..
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Sales Jan-Jun 2021
