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View Poll Results: Does Anyone Still Believe BEVs won't be 50% of New Car Sales by 2030?
Yes, I am still in denial 83 62.41%
No, you were right along Ze 50 37.59%
Voters: 133. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-04-2022, 04:15 PM
 
Location: Newburyport, MA
12,504 posts, read 9,584,432 times
Reputation: 15944

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Quote:
Originally Posted by getatag View Post
Thanks OutdoorLover and Airborneguy. We are meeting the electrician in the next few weeks. All this conversation has raised some important questions as we head into our weekly meeting with the builder and construction manager.
This thread has provided additional knowledge which is food for thought regarding our preparation for future EVs.
Sure thing, let us know what you learn and decide on :-) Here is an example of 225A service panel, most panel manufacturers have a few options at this capacity. If I don't get the 400A, this is the size I plan to get, as those extra 25A may come in handy and it won't be cheap to upsize the service panel if you decide you need a little more later.

https://www.lowes.com/pl/Siemens--Br...ent=4294965278

 
Old 05-04-2022, 05:00 PM
 
Location: NC
5,461 posts, read 6,064,220 times
Reputation: 9287
My builder and his construction manager are meeting in the AM to discuss some of the coming items. I always send him a tentative list of questions I have before I go. (I never liked being blindsided by a customer and I try not to do it to others.)

I just mentioned the electrical service question in a text and they both shot back within minutes that they scheduled a 400 amp service into the new house. They will do two 200 amp panels.
 
Old 05-04-2022, 07:06 PM
 
14,611 posts, read 17,588,380 times
Reputation: 7783
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddeemo View Post
Actually some make 100 amp service work - I charged off a Dryer plug for over a year.
My brother has a 90 year old house with 100 amp service. He has gas heat , stove and hot water. He has no central air. If he puts in a gas dryer there is absolutely no reason that he wouldn't be able to charge an EV with 100A service.
 
Old 05-05-2022, 02:05 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas & San Diego
6,913 posts, read 3,385,218 times
Reputation: 8629
Quote:
Originally Posted by leadfoot4 View Post
I keep hearing this phrase all the time, but I just don't see where it's valid. I live in the northeast US, we have cold winters and hot, muggy summers. That means that we're running our furnaces quite a bit, 24/7 during the winter, and our A/C frequently, during the summer. While it rarely occurs during the winter, we do experience "brownouts" during the summer NIGHTS, when people are trying to sleep, and due to the humidity, MANY people have their A/C running full tilt.

So please explain to me, how our infrastructure will handle the added load of EV charging, in the SUPPOSED off hours, when it can't handle today's load. Are you suggesting that people will have to choose between A/C in the house, or charging the EV in the garage, every evening?

Furthermore, the load imposed on the grid, by charging an EV, isn't exactly a universal burden. I have several ICE vehicles in my household, and they're all well maintained, meaning that they'll last for quite a few more years. But if many of my neighbors buy EVs, and heavily load the grid, on my street, at night, that means that I'll be "put out", for THEIR car. Is that fair??
You just keep trying to find issues. When we lived in the Northeast - never had an issue with "brownouts" - brownouts are not really used so must be a local utility issue. Also few use electric heat so load is minimal in winter due to heating - in summer, the load is higher but still not to the point of "brownouts", especially at night when cooler. The data is that the load is significantly less at night with little commercial use and not much other than AC at homes so any likely power situation is during the day. Here is the data for energy use from the US DOE data at eia.gov -



Every place and every season shows significantly less electricity use from 12-6 am and the highest use around 5pm during the summer. The data doesn't match your narrative - most charging of EVs is overnight, mostly driven by price breaks to encourage that pattern.

The estimates are that if EV use increased significantly tomorrow, the system could handle the extra load as of right now - capacity exists to handle that overnight where excess capacity already exists.

You will in no way be put out for their car - what is not fair is your trying to say an issue exists that appears to be just made up.
 
Old 05-05-2022, 05:29 AM
 
Location: western NY
6,469 posts, read 3,163,833 times
Reputation: 10163
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddeemo View Post
You just keep trying to find issues. When we lived in the Northeast - never had an issue with "brownouts" - brownouts are not really used so must be a local utility issue. Also few use electric heat so load is minimal in winter due to heating - in summer, the load is higher but still not to the point of "brownouts", especially at night when cooler. The data is that the load is significantly less at night with little commercial use and not much other than AC at homes so any likely power situation is during the day. Here is the data for energy use from the US DOE data at eia.gov -



Every place and every season shows significantly less electricity use from 12-6 am and the highest use around 5pm during the summer. The data doesn't match your narrative - most charging of EVs is overnight, mostly driven by price breaks to encourage that pattern.

The estimates are that if EV use increased significantly tomorrow, the system could handle the extra load as of right now - capacity exists to handle that overnight where excess capacity already exists.

You will in no way be put out for their car - what is not fair is your trying to say an issue exists that appears to be just made up.
I have two friends who are highly qualified, "master electricians", and who, of course, discuss this with other electricians in the community. The general consensus within their group, is that the current state of the electrical grid, in our area, will not adequately support a massive switch over to EVs. In their experienced opinion, it will take a long time, for the grid to be updated to an adequate level. But, you apparently feel that these people are all incorrect. OK..............
 
Old 05-05-2022, 10:02 AM
 
Location: Maryland
3,798 posts, read 2,329,798 times
Reputation: 6650
Quote:
Originally Posted by leadfoot4 View Post
I have two friends who are highly qualified, "master electricians", and who, of course, discuss this with other electricians in the community. The general consensus within their group, is that the current state of the electrical grid, in our area, will not adequately support a massive switch over to EVs. In their experienced opinion, it will take a long time, for the grid to be updated to an adequate level. But, you apparently feel that these people are all incorrect. OK..............

Two things wrong with your assessment that have been gone over NUMEROUS times here.


1) The data has been shown that overnight IS when power plants are ramped down. That's just the way it works. And it's inefficient, but necessary as demand drops off during that time. Your installers/electricians don't know jack about power generation. Adding EVs to the mix allows the plants to remain running and makes them more efficient, especially if EVs are added as load balancing (which the newer VTL EVs are). This is date from the DOE, from independent research, and from the power companies themselves.



2) The constant refrain from one side about a "massive switchover to EVs," as though it actually could or will happen that way. There are 280 million cars and light trucks in the US alone. Even if ALL car manufacturing was switched to EVs tomorrow morning, it would STILL take decades of sales (given traditional annual sales of 12-15 million cars) to replace even half the US fleet. Since all manufacturing is NOT going to be switched over to EVs tomorrow morning, nor in the foreseeable future (the "mandate" for 2030 is 50% of new car sales, not 50% of all cars on the road) it will take many more decades than that to replace even 50% of the fleet. So there's MORE THAN ENOUGH TIME for the grid to adapt.


Watch this fully:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dfyG6FXsUU
 
Old 05-06-2022, 12:44 AM
 
14,611 posts, read 17,588,380 times
Reputation: 7783
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvetters63 View Post
Watch this fully:
The narrator in that video at roughly 4 minutes makes a big point that total electric production from 1960 to 2000 increased by an average of 4% per year.
  • +4.0% from 1960 to 2000

He then goes to calculate that it takes 6.5 years at 4% per year to increase total production by 30% and that the total switchover to EVs will take a lot longer than 6.5 years.

That statement is absolutely correct. However instead of lumping 40 years into one 4% per year it is more useful to break up the past increase into decade long periods.
  • +8.5% from 1950 to 1960
  • +7.3% from 1960 to 1970
  • +4.1% from 1970 to 1980
  • +2.9% from 1980 to 1990
  • +2.3% from 1990 to 2000
  • +0.8% from 2000 to 2010
  • -0.3% from 2010 to 2020

So it has been 4 decades since the power grid was actually increasing by 4% per year. All the things you read about, the retiring of coal plants and the increase in renewable means of electricity generation needs to be balanced by the fact that overall demand has been nearly steady for at least two decades.
 
Old 05-06-2022, 01:32 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas & San Diego
6,913 posts, read 3,385,218 times
Reputation: 8629
Quote:
Originally Posted by leadfoot4 View Post
I have two friends who are highly qualified, "master electricians", and who, of course, discuss this with other electricians in the community. The general consensus within their group, is that the current state of the electrical grid, in our area, will not adequately support a massive switch over to EVs. In their experienced opinion, it will take a long time, for the grid to be updated to an adequate level. But, you apparently feel that these people are all incorrect. OK..............
A master electrician has little knowledge of the state of the grid - it is not something they deal with, their experienced opinion means very little. Might as well ask an auto mechanic about gas pipelines or refining capacity.

BTW - The opinion is not mine, it is the US DOE that has made the evaluation that the grid is able to support the increased load.
 
Old 05-06-2022, 10:47 AM
 
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
44,599 posts, read 81,279,384 times
Reputation: 57841
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddeemo View Post
A master electrician has little knowledge of the state of the grid - it is not something they deal with, their experienced opinion means very little. Might as well ask an auto mechanic about gas pipelines or refining capacity.

BTW - The opinion is not mine, it is the US DOE that has made the evaluation that the grid is able to support the increased load.
Probably true, but then I meet regularly with a major electricity provider here in the course of my work, and they are worried about losing more of their clean hydro power to removal of dams, saving the salmon. The alternative is more natural gas generated power, and of course, that's fossil fuel. The Northwest is not a place where solar can be more than a minor supplement.
 
Old 05-06-2022, 12:02 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas & San Diego
6,913 posts, read 3,385,218 times
Reputation: 8629
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemlock140 View Post
Probably true, but then I meet regularly with a major electricity provider here in the course of my work, and they are worried about losing more of their clean hydro power to removal of dams, saving the salmon. The alternative is more natural gas generated power, and of course, that's fossil fuel. The Northwest is not a place where solar can be more than a minor supplement.
The grid is what is being discussed - the removal of dams or adding solar or NG generation are really side issues.

Not true at all on the solar - I lived for years in the Northwest, the east side of the mountains has a lot of sun and open land if want to install solar.
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