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Curious trade for the Marlins. Scratch that. Great trade for the Braves. Uggla can play 2nd next year (which was a problem for the Braves in the playoffs in anyone remembers) or 3rd if Chipper can't come back. He can also take over at 3rd in 2011.
Projected 2011 WAR
Uggla 4.0
Infante 2.0
Dunn .5
Uggla is expected to provide $18 million dollars in value next year (at $4.5 mil per WAR) while costing around $12 million. That's $6 million in surplus value
Infante would provide $9 million and Dunn $3 million. Combined they'll make about $3 million. That's surplus of $9 million.
Uggla is arbitration eligible for the last time (I think, didn't check) this year. Infante is a free agent after this year. Neither of then will be adding more WAR to the equation. Dunn isn't likely to rack up much more either.
It appears that the Marlins could have done better.
I don't think the Marlins did as bad as you think, Infante is solid. Uggla is also a free agent after this year, so you get a solid player in Infante, that is two years younger than Uggla.
You also get a darn good reliever with A LOT of potential who had a ERA under 2. I still would lean towards the Braves getting the better end of the deal, but imo a lot closer to even than you think.
I don't think the Marlins did as bad as you think, Infante is solid. Uggla is also a free agent after this year, so you get a solid player in Infante, that is two years younger than Uggla.
Infante is also a free agent after this year so the fact that he's two years younger isn't really relevant.
Uggla is also much better than Infante. About 2 wins, which is significant.
Quote:
You also get a darn good reliever with A LOT of potential who had a ERA under 2. I still would lean towards the Braves getting the better end of the deal, but imo a lot closer to even than you think.
He had an ERA under 2, but also had 17 walks in 19 innings.
In his minor league career he's walked over 4 per 9 innings (while K'ing close to 10) so he has problems finding the plate.
He's not a 'darn good' reliever.
He's 25 years old. Not like he's a 21 year old kid who's bound to improve. If he hasn't been able to improve his control by now (it's actually getting worse) it is not really likely that he will.
Good deal for Braves, Marlin fans must be a little concerned here.
There had been rumors about Uggla coming to the Giants. He makes way too many errors though. He's just not much of a fielder. I mean a - 7.6 UZR? Plus a lot of his HRs in Florida would have been long fly ball outs in SF. And he wants a big contract.
There had been rumors about Uggla coming to the Giants. He makes way too many errors though. He's just not much of a fielder. I mean a - 7.6 UZR? Plus a lot of his HRs in Florida would have been long fly ball outs in SF. And he wants a big contract.
Tough to evaluate what the Giants will do at the meeting though, the roster is built on great starting pitching and a closer, with the team on the field subject to an extremely high annual turnover rate.
Just look at how significant an impact the mid season pickups had on the club.
I think your underestimating Infante, batting .321 is no joke...
Infante is a career .274 hitter including this season. His BABIP this season .355. His career BABIP .313.
I'll give you that Infante is probably better than a .274 hitter. His strike out rate has been decreasing
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1609_2BSS_season_mini_4_20101003.png (broken link)
And not striking out certainly helps your batting average.
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1609_2BSS_season_mini_9_20101003.png (broken link)
You can see the decrease in Infante's line drive rates that last 3 years
This year, at least, it came at an increase in ground ball rate and decrease in fly ball rate, which is good since Infante isn't a power hitter. Note the steady decrease in fly balls. Much like Jose Bautista it looks like Infante is maximizing his balls in play by hitting the ball in the air less.
Infante hit .321 on ground balls this year. ML average is around .240. Some players, like Ichiro, can have higher than average BABIPs on ground balls. Infante's career average on ground balls is .299. His GB BABIPs the last 2 years were .246 and .264. I don't think .321 is his true talent.
If you give Infante the following batted ball rates and BABIPs
LD 22% .750
GB 43% .275
FB 35% .140
It projects him for a BABIP of .332 (higher than I would have guessed)
Plugging in K% of 13% (following his recent improvement in that area) and BB% of 6% (his career average) Infante comes up with the following line for 2011
.305 Batting Average, .347 On Base Percentage, .401 Slugging Percentage
Infante is a nice player. Between 2 and 2.5 wins (taking this closer look at him I am more impressed than I originally was). He's still a significant downgrade from Uggla.
Uggla pessimistically projects to create around 22 runs per 600 plate appearances
Infante optimistically projects to create around 9 runs per 600 plate appearances
The Blue Jays added to their outfield mix today by acquiring speedster Rajai Davis from the Athletics for minor league relievers Danny Farquhar and Trystan Magnuson.
Reasonable move for the Jays. Travis Snider, Fred Lewis, and Adam Lind are all left-handed so having the righty Davis will help. He's not that expensive and the players that they gave up are so-so prospects.
Werth offered arbitration, not an unexpected move. All has been quiet on Werth otherwise....but I have to wonder if something is brewing, it was strange that Scott Boras didn't appear at the meetings.
Werth offered arbitration, not an unexpected move. All has been quiet on Werth otherwise....but I have to wonder if something is brewing, it was strange that Scott Boras didn't appear at the meetings.
Of course they would offer arbitration. If Werth accepts they get Werth on a one-year deal worth about $12 million.
Werth of course, will decline because he'll easily make that much as a free agent.
By offering arbitration the Phillies will receive 2 extra draft picks in the next draft since Werth is classified as a Type A Free Agent.
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