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I don't know it. It's surely too small of a sample to use anyway. Chambers' career steal rate is the best number to use. He looks to be a poor base stealer.
Jaramillo has a 31% career CS%. Over Jaramillo's career, the average catcher has thrown out 28% of base stealers. Jaramillo appears to be above average at throwing runners out.
Did YOU consider THAT in your analysis?
Nope. Neither did you, until I suggested it. Hanrahan was throwing balls in the dirt, Jaramillo had just missed one, Hanrahan threw 10 balls and 15 strikes. Third was stealable, by any runner who can steal 22 bases in a season, even in the minors.
I'm glad that you did suggest it since it reinforces my position.
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Hanrahan was throwing balls in the dirt, Jaramillo had just missed one, Hanrahan threw 10 strikes and 15 balls.
Why would you risk stealing a base with a ****ty base stealer and an above average catcher when the pitcher is throwing more balls than strikes and throwing wild pitches/passed balls?
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Third was stealable, by any runner who can steal 22 bases in a season, even in the minors.
I'm glad that you did suggest it since it reinforces my position.
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Which was hasty and poorly thought out and fired from the hip and a knee-jerk, contrarian reaction, and needed reinforcement because of its many abject deficiencies of both logic and statistical analysis.
You also failed to check my figures, and discover that Hanrahan had thrown only one pitch in the dirt, and he was mostly high and outside with his pitches. You seem to be so centered on your own insistence that you are right and I am wrong, that you just declare yourself the winner without any fact checking.
It's amazing how you can declare a player with 22 stolen bases a ****ty runner, but a catcher "better than average" by a margin of 31% to 28%, and base your whole strategy on such a characterization.
Which was hasty and poorly thought out and fired from the hip and a knee-jerk, contrarian reaction, and needed reinforcement because of its many abject deficiencies of both logic and statistical analysis.
Huh?
This is said by the guy who doesn't appear to have even bothered to consider the fact that the runner may have been thrown out nor the defensive abilities of the catcher.
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Originally Posted by exhibitA
Third was stealable, by any runner who can steal 22 bases in a season
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Originally Posted by exhibitB
What is the CS rate of the catcher? Does that count in the analysis?
Once again, just because what LaRussa did didn't work out, that doesn't mean that doing something different would have certainly worked out.
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You also failed to check my figures, and discover that Hanrahan had thrown only one pitch in the dirt, and he was mostly high and outside with his pitches.
Uhh...so, that your figures were incorrect is a black mark against my argument?
I don't have any data to back up this observation, however, in my playing, and watching, experience, it is easier to throw out a runner on high pitches as that allows the catcher to get into throwing position sooner.
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You seem to be so centered on your own insistence that you are right and I am wrong, that you just declare yourself the winner without any fact checking.
It's amazing how you can declare a player with 22 stolen bases a ****ty runner,
Fait enough. '****ty baserunner' should have probably been 'below average base stealer'
Nothing that I have seen suggests that Chambers is anything better than a league average base stealer.
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but a catcher "better than average" by a margin of 31% to 28%
Once again, just because what LaRussa did didn't work out, that doesn't mean that doing something different would have certainly worked out.
Why not? You present statistical percentages as though they would "certainly work out". You're implying that Jaramillo would "certainly" have thrown out Chambers, and therefore LaRussa is the genius that he says he is. I know that what he did do "certainly" did not work out, largely because he wound up with a .170 hitter making the last out, which could have easily been averted just by leaving Jay in the game, and at least having Craig (.312) available to make the last out. And because he still can't recognize that his woeful bullpen sucks and blows games in which his starters are pitching low-pitch-count shutouts. And because he believes that stolen base attempts "certainly" result in losses, even when he has competent runners on the roster. He had Tyler Green, 10-for-10, sitting on his bench, but pinch-ran a ****ty base stealer instead. What could TLR have been thinkiing? When LaRussa always goes into extra innings with defensive replacements in the lineup, he comes as close as you can get to "certainly" losing, which he does 2/3 of the time.
When LaRussa's star-studded lineup can barely play .500 ball in a weak division, the "certainty" of his strategizing is suspect.
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No, I actually checked multiple sources. His CS% is higher than the league average as discussed.
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Not until I brought them to your attention. Then you checked multiple sources. You started out using only two sources: Chambers' irrelevant probability of stealing second (where he already was), and scoring probability without taking into account the other base runner, who was on first.
The fact is, by the time Chanbers even got in the game, LaRussa had already done at least two other things that reduced his chances of winning to nearly zero, and a base-stealing pinch-runner in that situation was the only glimmer of hope he still had, and then he put in what you call a ****ty runner, instead of Green. Stop trying to rescue LaRussa, he has become a megalomaniacal narcissist, no matter that Jaramillo is three percentage points above average, which is the only builb still flickering faintly in your LaRussa defense.
Geez, LaRussa has a .308 hitter (Jay) in he number 2 spot in his lineup, who is his most competent defensive outfielder, and every manager knows that all they have to do to get him out of the game in the 7th inning is bring in a lefty against him, and LaRussa's mouth starts to water as if you rang a bell. LaRussa has pinch hit for Jay five times in the last ten games, and lost 3 of the 5.
Why not? You present statistical percentages as though they would "certainly work out". You're implying that Jaramillo would "certainly" have thrown out Chambers, and therefore LaRussa is the genius that he says he is.
I most certainly did not present statistical percentages of though they would certainly work out.
Regard:
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Originally Posted by filihok
In this situation the Cardinals had a 22% chance of winning
If Chambers gets thrown out stealing, the Cardinals have a 3% chance of winning. That's a difference of -19%
If Chambers steals 3rd, the Cardinals have a 32% chance of winning. That's a difference of 10%
Chambers had 22 steals in 35 attempts. He steals successfully 63% of the time.
63% times 10% = .063%
37% times 19% = .071%
Attempting to steal the base would have decreased the Cardinals' expected winning percentage by 1%
I clearly presented the likelihood of both possibilities.
If Chambers gets thrown out stealing, the Cardinals have a 3% chance of winning.
Did that take into account the fact that Punto would have moved to second on the out-stealing? Did you recalculate the chances if LaRussa had put in Tyler Green (100% on ten steals), who was available on his bench?
Forget about Chambers, the 7-inning lead had already been blown by LaRussa, and his offense out of the game.
Did that take into account the fact that Punto would have moved to second on the out-stealing? Did you recalculate the chances if LaRussa had put in Tyler Green (100% on ten steals), who was available on his bench?
Forget about Chambers, the 7-inning lead had already been blown by LaRussa, and his offense out of the game.
How many times are you going to move the goalposts?
Jtur: You did this
filihok: no I didn't
Jtru: well you didn't do this then
How many times are you going to move the goalposts?
Jtur: You did this
filihok: no I didn't
Jtru: well you didn't do this then
Come on man
I started out addressing two prior things LaRussa did, and only got down to Chambers as the frosting on the cake. You completely ignored the first two things, and pushed Chambers up to your ONLY argument, and then you tell me I'M moving the goalposts?
You even admitted in an earlier post that you did NOT consider Jaramillo's CS rate until I had suggested it. Come on man, you DID do this. And you had argued with me in complete ignorance of that stat, however it might have influenced the strategy. As usual, you only pre-select a few stats that you can use to buttress your position, which is taken for no other reason than to be argumentative.
OK. At the end, Larussa had five position players on his bench. Theriot (.271), Cruz (.258), Laird (.242), Greene (.196) and Patterson (.170). Who is his go-to guy, behind by a run, 9th inning, tying run in scoring position, two out? Right.
Go ahead. Run the probabilities and get back to me.
Item: Three times in the past few weeks, I have commented on LaRussa taking out a starting pitcher, 100 pitches of less, either pitching a shut out, or Whip below 1.0 in the past 5 innings, knowing that his bullpen was very suspect and shaky.
Item: He has pulled Jay and Berkman and Freese out of every close game, relying on hitters like Patterson to win it for him after his bullpen blows the save.
Item: He needed a hit with 2 out in the ninth to tie the game, and of five available pinch hitters, he chose the lowest BA, after sending out a ****ty pinch runner, leaving a 10-for-10 base stealer sitting on the bench.
Go ahead, run the probabilities. Jaramillo's +3 over average will not save you, you need to think of something else. Run your numbers, and see if he would have had a BETTER chance of winning if he had used Patterson for pinch running and Chambers for pinch hitting, instead of the reverse.
I started out addressing two prior things LaRussa did, and only got down to Chambers as the frosting on the cake. You completely ignored the first two things, and pushed Chambers up to your ONLY argument, and then you tell me I'M moving the goalposts?
Yes, you are the one moving the goalposts.
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Originally Posted by Goalpost Position A
Then in the 9th, LaRussa has the tyinig run on second, one out, in the person of a guy who just stole 22 bases in Triple-A. Oh, no, it's against LaRussa's absolute inflexible no-steal rules to have him move into sac-fly position.
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Originally Posted by Goalpost Position L
Did you recalculate the chances if LaRussa had put in Tyler Green (100% on ten steals), who was available on his bench?
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You even admitted in an earlier post that you did NOT consider Jaramillo's CS rate until I had suggested it, and you had argued with me in complete ignorance of that stat, however it might have influenced the strategy.
I actually looked at it immediately, but since it was close to the league average, and since catcher CS% is highly dependent upon the pitcher throwing to him, I left it out.
What are you trying to say?
If LaRussa was influenced by the knowledge that Jaramillo is more likely an above average defender than a below average defender, and used that knowledge to formulate his strategy, that is a GOOD thing.
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As usual, you only pre-select a few stats that you can use to buttress your position, which is taken for no other reason than to be argumentative.
That is entirely untrue. I was interested in whether or not stealing the base would have been the correct move. I merely presented the results of my findings.
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