Weather Thread (San Jose, San Mateo, San Fernando: camper, living, shop)

[BayAreaHillbilly]

NWS is prog'ing a late season cold front to hit on 23 or 24 June. Looks like there may be a Pineapple Express feeding it. In the new normal, the Pacific High is a bit unreliable up to and at times after the Summer Solstice. It's actually a bit Oregonian. When I was a kid that never happened. Back then, if the rain trailed off during April, it would not return until late October.

LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

This may actually be true long term normal. Paleo studies of chaparral tree rings suggest that the 20th Century was abnormally benign for CA. The weather may not normally be that good.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Even if the Sunday/Monday storm wimps out, then there is this:

THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER ITEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH FROM SUNDAY A STRONGER AND MUCH MORE MOIST SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT S OREGON AND N CA. FIRST AND FOREMOST...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. SO CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER(1.75 IN) TOWARD THE CA COAST NEXT MONDAY. IF ONE TAKES A LOOK AT THE GFS OUTPUT OF INTEGRATE WATER VAPOR(IWV) AND IT VERIFIERS IT WILL EXCEED THE AMOUNT NECESSARY FOR THE EVENT TO BE CLASSIFIED AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT.

It appears the storm door may open up again, even though astronomical Summer will have already begun. Positively Oregonian.

[Gentoo]

You are so right about the rain ending in April and that was it till October. Mention rain in summer when we were kids or teenagers they'd have us locked up.

[zx636]

Not much more than .1" so far, we will see if the predicted 1/2" will fall tonight..

In other news, it looks hot in the extended forecast.

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly

Even if the Sunday/Monday storm wimps out, then there is this:

THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER ITEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH FROM SUNDAY A STRONGER AND MUCH MORE MOIST SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT S OREGON AND N CA. FIRST AND FOREMOST...MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING ON THE EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. SO CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER(1.75 IN) TOWARD THE CA COAST NEXT MONDAY. IF ONE TAKES A LOOK AT THE GFS OUTPUT OF INTEGRATE WATER VAPOR(IWV) AND IT VERIFIERS IT WILL EXCEED THE AMOUNT NECESSARY FOR THE EVENT TO BE CLASSIFIED AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT.

It appears the storm door may open up again, even though astronomical Summer will have already begun. Positively Oregonian.

Oh, PLEASE please please send some of that precip on over the Sierras to us in NM!

Pretty please?

[Gentoo]

Got a pretty good soaking here in Richmond. It was never heavy but steady and long lasting and I don't think it's quite over yet.

[Gentoo]

The farther north you are the more you would have received. Richmond is far enough north, across from San Rafael, that it's often good to consider it North Bay as far as weather is concerned sometimes.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

The real rain is just now starting:

PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS PW AMOUNTS ARE 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH SOME WEAK LIFT EXPECTED TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE COAST...ALL INDICATIONS ARE WE WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TODAY. ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE NORTH BAY FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN, AND WE COULD EASILY PICK UP ANOTHER HALF AN INCH FOR THE NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS. AROUND SF BAY PLUS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WOULD EXPECT UP TO QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WILL PROBABLY SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. RAIN WILL END BY THE EVENING. RAINFALL RECORDS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY FOR TODAY AS THE CURRENT VALUES ARE FAIRLY SMALL. DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO`S RECORD IS JUST 0.15" SET BACK IN 2001.

[Bulldogdad]

Good string of heat returning in two days.

[DMenscha]

We ended up with .5 inches of rain in central Calaveras County. Interesting for sure, I don't recall any significant rainfall after June 1 (except for the odd t-storm).