When is the Next CA Housing Price Collapse Supposed to Happen? (San Diego: mortgage, loan)

[Searching-01]

Originally Posted by nightlysparrow

So you prefer the "surprises" of annual rent increases, then?

They aren't surprises.

As a an aside, didn't someone famous say... "Markets can stay irrational longer than you have money"... ? LOL!

Market prices aren't always tied to anything concrete since some element of supply and demand is psychological.

And if anyone is going to say people are always 100% rational... I have just 3 words... "The Middle East". LOL!

Or perhaps just one... "Love"...

[Searching-01]

Originally Posted by Electrician4you

Not much of a surprise if it’s a annual rent increase. The surprise is the amount not the raise itself

Very true. But I was really referring to things like what happened when I built my first home many decades ago... several break ins.

Had built in a formerly un-built-out area and no one realized it was going to go bad.

And other day to day surprises... like they decide they want to put the new landfill in your area, or whatever. There's 100's of possibilities... some just personal to me, others that anyone might be concerned with.

Deep injection of treated sewage has been one here that doesn't thrill me.

Been my experience you can't know if an area works for you without living there some time.

Having been here 12 years, I've sorted through all of that.

[Searching-01]

Originally Posted by wac_432

3 years. With the repeal of Dodd-Frank and the current hyper-deregulatory environment, coupled with an overheated frothy economy, plus trade wars, plus currency wars, the national economic bubble will pop in 18 months, with housing to skid over the cliff about a year afterward.

Most people will be out of a job or just holding on by their fingernails. I will be picking up an additional property a little further inland, moving there for a few years, and converting my present residence into a long-term rental.

That's an interesting theory.

If history is any indicator, yes, I'll be hanging by the fingernails, as I had to during the Great Recession.

What blows me away is... we've split atoms... landed on the moon... sent junk over to Mars... but we can't stabilize and smooth out the economy...

I'm thinking that's BS and that folks in the correct positions are profiting from the Bubble and Burst Cycles... so much so, they don't care.

[Searching-01]

Originally Posted by aslowdodge

Op you really should settle for that condo in MV if you love it so much there. Prices aren't coming down. if anything I think they will rise a bit then maybe level off if you are lucky. But they will not come down where you can afford that big house you want in MV.

I'd be OK with that, but anything the least bit palatable is now out of reach, LOL!

Been priced out of anything that would be sufficient for happiness. Which isn't anything large at all. Let's just say a 2/2 in S. MV without a dumpster out the front door, LOL!

Home prices are crazy here, to say the least. Just in my eyes. Obviously people do it, and it's all relative. Were I say, a surgeon and money came more easily, I would perhaps feel different.

[Searching-01]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

What an assumption. Possibly the OP is simply asking an honest question. And h/she may have read articles such as the ones linked below. Anyone who has bought residential property in the past few decades knows that we can't possibly believe that housing prices are not cyclical.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...gger-into-2018

https://gordcollins.com/real-estate/...-market-crash/

https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com...-is-in-trouble

It was an honest question.

Locals with deeper roots in OC than me mentioned that a 7 year cycle was common here.

Have never been sure if that was true or not.

But it does contrast with most of the rest of the country, where housing market declines have been somewhat of a rarity to my eyes,

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by Searching-01

Any thoughts or rationales on when the burst is supposed to happen in CA?

The rationale will be that interest rates have risen substantially and/or the economy slows....my WAG is 2020 or 2021.

[vdy1985]

Housing market correction coming in a few months. Mark my words.

[aewan68]

It already started:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/sout...he-nation.html

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by aewan68

It already started:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/sout...he-nation.html

The reason the sales are "crashing" is that no one wants to sell. The prices are not crashing. The majority of the homeowners are in good shape, unlike the last recession and do not want to sell. No bubble popping, just not enough homes available.

[BB_210]

Also doesn't make sense to sell when your property tax rate is locked in low.