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Agreed,
however whether Quebec stays in Canada or leaves is entirely up to Quebec, If Quebec made a unilateral declaration of independence next week i think any descension from the ROC would die down rather quickly and when the dust settled Quebec would be its own country free to become whatever it wishes, Sounds like the logical course of action
An analogy that comes to mind is We are all on a bus,having fun driving into the future except this one guy on the back of the bus aint happy,he hates the bus,he hates the people on the bus,he hates where the bus is going,however for some odd reason getting off the bus is not an option he wants to consider .
the problem with that is that you assume Quebec wants to leave, it doesn't and is therefore happy enough to stay.
There's plenty of people here happy to stay with the ROC.
the problem with that is that you assume Quebec wants to leave, it doesn't and is therefore happy enough to stay.
There's plenty of people here happy to stay with the ROC.
Good point q however the number of Quebecois in favor of separation is such that we just had 2 years of a duly elected separatist government,i have no doubt a large enough number of Quebecois retain an underlying or overt yearning for Quebec separation that will return at some point in the future perhaps the next round of separatist fervor will swing the issue in favor of separation.IMO its not a question of if Quebec will separate as the Quebecois are drifting further away from identifying as Canadians.
To further that - the rest of the people on the bus feel they've done everything they could to have made him feel welcome and the feeling just is that it doesn't quite matter what is done, he'll always be unhappy.. The real question is - why doesn't he want to get off the bus and is equivocating so.....
In red I particularly agree - I do think there are economic benefits to a union but even that remains a question mark for me now because you have this large segment of a province that just doesn't want to deal with the R.O.C so you have to wonder about those benefits.. Additionally, not having to pay transfer payments to Quebec would be a financial burden off our shoulders. Canada already has name recognition in the world and those trade/treaty agreements in place so largely wouldn't change without Quebec. The onus would be on Quebec to carve out anew..
Well, as a resident of Ontario The Great Canadian Provider of (Most) Everything From Coast to Coast you should really think that through.
A good 20-25% (maybe more in some cases) of everything most of your industries produce goes to Quebec. You have guaranteed access to that market with Quebec as a province of Canada under the status quo.
I would assume that this would mostly be maintained if Quebec became independent but one can never be 100% sure of such things and if Canada and Quebec squabbled and trade became difficult... well Quebec has a direct land border with the U.S. We can always buy our Heinz Ketchup, Corn Flakes and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts from them if we have to...
Well, as a resident of Ontario The Great Canadian Provider of (Most) Everything From Coast to Coast you should really think that through.
A good 20-25% (maybe more in some cases) of everything most of your industries produce goes to Quebec. You have guaranteed access to that market with Quebec as a province of Canada under the status quo.
I would assume that this would mostly be maintained if Quebec became independent but one can never be 100% sure of such things and if Canada and Quebec squabbled and trade became difficult... well Quebec has a direct land border with the U.S. We can always buy our Heinz Ketchup, Corn Flakes and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts from them if we have to...
I think it will mutually hurt both Quebec and Ontario's economy. 40% of Quebec annual exports fall under inter-provincial exports to ROC, and total exports account for 50% of Quebec's annual GDP. Either way, both provinces' exports will be hurt in the short run should Quebec proceed with separation, which is to be expected.
Of course Quebec can buy more goods directly from the U.S. post-independence, but there's nothing preventing it from doing that at the moment anyway. Quebec is a part of NAFTA and will continue to be after independence.
I'm not too worried about exports because they will recover sooner or later for Quebec and Ontario, as long as Quebec, ROC, and the U.S. can hash out a new free-trade agreement post-independence.
The one potential downside I can think of is that more Canadian multinationals will pull out of Quebec after independence. Large Montreal-based employers like Air Canada, National Bank of Canada, and the remaining operational staff of RBC and BMO will most definitely relocate back to their HQs in Toronto, while maintaining a smaller regional presence in Quebec like other foreign multinationals. All in all, any corporation that receives federal subsidies or has partial federal share ownership will most likely move to Ontario or other provinces in Canada, in order to preserve their federal subsidies and favorable government procurement terms in ROC. A Montreal-based multinational like Bombardier, for example, is a regular recipient of something called "Conditionally Repayable Contributions" from both Ottawa but also the provincial governments of Quebec, Ontario, and other Canadian provinces where it has a market presence. That alone amounted to $233 million in 2009 for Bombardier, and a total of $1.1 billion inflation adjusted federal contributions to the company for the last 3 decades. That does not include favorable "Buy-Canadian" procurement policies throughout the ROC that favors Bombardier over other foreign suppliers - just look at Toronto's recent acquisition of new streetcars from Bombardier for $1.2 billion, something that benefited directly from "Buy-Canadian" (or Buy Ontario since Bombardier has a plant here), even though Bombardier has done a horrendous job of making deliveries on time (4 vehicles delivered out of 200 ordered since 2009).
Anyway, there are definitely both pros and cons to independence when it comes to the economic impact on Quebec and ROC.
I think it will mutually hurt both Quebec and Ontario's economy. 40% of Quebec annual exports fall under inter-provincial exports to ROC, and total exports account for 50% of Quebec's annual GDP. Either way, both provinces' exports will be hurt in the short run should Quebec proceed with separation, which is to be expected.
Of course Quebec can buy more goods directly from the U.S. post-independence, but there's nothing preventing it from doing that at the moment anyway. Quebec is a part of NAFTA and will continue to be after independence.
I'm not too worried about exports because they will recover sooner or later for Quebec and Ontario, as long as Quebec, ROC, and the U.S. can hash out a new free-trade agreement post-independence.
The one potential downside I can think of is that more Canadian multinationals will pull out of Quebec after independence. Large Montreal-based employers like Air Canada, National Bank of Canada, and the remaining operational staff of RBC and BMO will most definitely relocate back to their HQs in Toronto, while maintaining a smaller regional presence in Quebec like other foreign multinationals. All in all, any corporation that receives federal subsidies or has partial federal share ownership will most likely move to Ontario or other provinces in Canada, in order to preserve their federal subsidies and favorable government procurement terms in ROC. A Montreal-based multinational like Bombardier, for example, is a regular recipient of something called "Conditionally Repayable Contributions" from both Ottawa but also the provincial governments of Quebec, Ontario, and other Canadian provinces where it has a market presence. That alone amounted to $233 million in 2009 for Bombardier, and a total of $1.1 billion inflation adjusted federal contributions to the company for the last 3 decades. That does not include favorable "Buy-Canadian" procurement policies throughout the ROC that favors Bombardier over other foreign suppliers - just look at Toronto's recent acquisition of new streetcars from Bombardier for $1.2 billion, something that benefited directly from "Buy-Canadian" (or Buy Ontario since Bombardier has a plant here), even though Bombardier has done a horrendous job of making deliveries on time (4 vehicles delivered out of 200 ordered since 2009).
Anyway, there are definitely both pros and cons to independence when it comes to the economic impact on Quebec and ROC.
Another well thought post Bostonkid. Thanks for making this.
Of course Quebec can buy more goods directly from the U.S. post-independence, but there's nothing preventing it from doing that at the moment anyway. .
This is largely true, but there are less restrictions and fewer hassles on Ontario to Quebec goods than on US to Quebec goods. In some cases these are simple questions of practicality and how trade patterns have been established over decades.
I think it will mutually hurt both Quebec and Ontario's economy. 40% of Quebec annual exports fall under inter-provincial exports to ROC, and total exports account for 50% of Quebec's annual GDP. Either way, both provinces' exports will be hurt in the short run should Quebec proceed with separation, which is to be expected.
Yes, Quebec needs to trade with Ontario as much or more than Ontario needs to trade with Quebec.
The main difference in the debate so far is that the PQ have always said they want to keep trade relationships as identical to the status quo as possible post-independence.
Whereas Ontario (like all of the ROC) has hinted to varying degrees to a "no truck or trade with the seppies!", all of which I happen to think is more a negotiating tactic and bluster more than anything. In light of the realities we have been discussing.
Another well thought post Bostonkid. Thanks for making this.
You are very welcome
I think it really depends on the type of good or merchandise. Commodities like minerals, energy, and electricity will most likely be cheaper from Ontario and ROC. Also, manufactured goods like automobiles will also be a bit cheaper. Ontario is already a leader in auto manufacturing in North America, and exports its vehicles to many states in America so there must be some cost advantage. It's funny, because the Honda sedan that I bought in Boston 2 years ago was made here in the suburbs of Toronto, and when I drove it back to Canada last year, it was completely exempted from any import fees or duties even though it was a relatively new vehicle.
Another benefit of trading with ROC is currency fluctuation - Canadian dollar is at an all time low right now vs. USD, making Canadian exports vastly more preferable these days (good for auto manufacturers in Ontario, bad for big oil in Alberta )
Well, as a resident of Ontario The Great Canadian Provider of (Most) Everything From Coast to Coast you should really think that through.
A good 20-25% (maybe more in some cases) of everything most of your industries produce goes to Quebec. You have guaranteed access to that market with Quebec as a province of Canada under the status quo.
I would assume that this would mostly be maintained if Quebec became independent but one can never be 100% sure of such things and if Canada and Quebec squabbled and trade became difficult... well Quebec has a direct land border with the U.S. We can always buy our Heinz Ketchup, Corn Flakes and Krispy Kreme Doughnuts from them if we have to...
I didn't advocate ending trade (both imports/exports) with an independent Quebec.. I simply stated that transfer payments would end.. They aren't that big in the grand scheme of things but they would indeed stop so in that regard there would be a cost savings.. Not sure why you got all ballistic about trade and condescending about Ontario but whatever - i'll chalk that up to mood lol... As for all things economic - i'm firmly of the view that Quebec remaining in Canada would be the most economically beneficial arrangement for all involved.. Gives us a bigger voice in a world where essential nations are coalescing into larger economic regions - not fracturing into smaller one's. With that said, if we are going to drive eachother nuts and we can't find ways to make things work than essentially that isn't a good solution either.. Taking into account - with some (this isn't just about some Quebecers its some in all parts of the country) - there will never be solutions/progress that will be quite good enough or those with entrenched views who see dialogue as the devil.
As for Krispy Kreme donuts - for the love of all health please stay away from those
I think it really depends on the type of good or merchandise. Commodities like minerals, energy, and electricity will most likely be cheaper from Ontario and ROC. Also, manufactured goods like automobiles will also be a bit cheaper. Ontario is already a leader in auto manufacturing in North America, and exports its vehicles to many states in America so there must be some cost advantage. It's funny, because the Honda sedan that I bought in Boston 2 years ago was made here in the suburbs of Toronto, and when I drove it back to Canada last year, it was completely exempted from any import fees or duties even though it was a relatively new vehicle.
Another benefit of trading with ROC is currency fluctuation - Canadian dollar is at an all time low right now vs. USD, making Canadian exports vastly more preferable these days (good for auto manufacturers in Ontario, bad for big oil in Alberta )
I used to work at the Honda plant in Alliston building Civics after graduating from College.. Did it for a 6 month stint to pay down my student loan debt.. For a 23 year old it was great money at the time but it was way too monotenous and tough on the wrists and ultimately wasn't in my field of study.
Last edited by fusion2; 03-23-2015 at 09:08 PM..
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