2013 Election (Cincinnati: money, building, limit)

[kjbrill]

HEY, Tomorrow is the Big Day. We had the KTMG report released to Cincy today. I did actually attempt to read it. What did that little gem cost Cincinnati? KTMG are professionals and know how to warp the wording. I didn't see anything startling or new in their report.

So now we get to Tomorrow, D-Day from what the FTA has said on the furture of the Federal Grant for the streetcar. If the decision is not made to go ahead with the streetcar the Federal Grant is not only revoked, but Cincinnati is liable for the portions already drawn and spent.

Will there be a Council vote tomorrow or not? An interesting drawdown. Do these people believe the FTA is not serious? Do they believe the people of Cincy are not serious in their charter mandate vote?

[restorationconsultant]

Originally Posted by progmac

quit bringing up detroit. If you think that Detroit's collapse was ANYTHING other than deindustrialization or that Cincinnati can somehow replicate these problems through its pension or streetcar, you're just plain wrong.

Replicate? Actually Cincinnati was the poster child of de-industrialization. In case you haven't noticed we have millions of sq feet of emply industrial space. In fact the entire Mill Creek valley was once filled with mills and factories. We faced deindustrialization long before Detroit did. Look at the empty Midwest textile building, or the Lunkenheimer complex on Beekman. Look anywhere in this city and you will find rusting industrial complexes that one were industrial manufacturing plants. The similarities between Cincinnati and Detroit are inescapeable. Our population peaked in the 1950's and Detroit was still growing. We lost 10.4 percent of our population in the last decade alone. When Urban planners talk about the need to "rightsize" cities Detroit and Cincinnati are at the top of this list.

Now I believe we can bounce back like Indianapolis did but if we continue with tearing down useful realestate and depleting our property tax base and availability of housing to rehabilitate (which creates jobs BTW), we may find ourselves in the exact same situation Detroit is in.

Its not just the pension plan , its de-industrialization, de-population, declining property tax base and a city that continues to spend like none of that is occurring. That must change.

[American Luxury]

It looks like Kevin Flynn will be the deciding factor in whether or not the streetcar continues.

[Komeht]

Cranley: "It doesn't cost $40 million to say stop." 11/21/2013
KPMG: Correct, it will cost at least $50 to $80 Million to say stop 12/18/2013

Oh, yeah, that doesn't include 1 cent allocated for litigation cost.
Does not account for repetitional cost.
Does not account for future lost revenues from the FTA (guaranteed).
Does not account for lost revenues from increase ad valorem taxes.
Does not account for loss of value.

Oh, but he's still pitching it's the "responsible" thing to do.

Seriously Cincinnati - you guys need to run this clown out of town. . .on a rail.

[Komeht]

Originally Posted by American Luxury

It looks like Kevin Flynn will be the deciding factor in whether or not the streetcar continues.

Looks like 4 solid votes to restart + probable Mann (haven't seen for 100% certain he's swayed, but seems reasonable).

Flynn's position seems less certain. I can imagine that he definitely does not want to be put in the position of being the swing vote on this thing - but after KPMG's analysis he will have to answer to voters why he did not believe the numbers were what they were.

Cranley is beyond reason and the others appear philosophically opposed to the whole thing - money to them means nothing on the equation - they just want rail gone.

Watching and hoping for you Cincy - this would just be the most embarrassing thing I've ever seen a city do if Cranley upholds his veto.

[motorman]

^ Kevin Flynn isn't smart enough to realize that today, when he votes against the streetcar, he will be be terminating his own political career--but I'm afraid he'll do just that. In turn, the political career of Cincinnati new Demon-King mayor will end upon his imminent recall in 2014. And, as for Mann--very unstable.

[American Luxury]

I just can't understand how Cranley can say spending 80 million dollars for nothing is responsible. Even if it is just 50 million, that is a big sum. He put businesses in a corner by giving them a week to decide if they want to spend 80 million to cover operating costs, I'm sure over time that money could be found. In the mean time SORTA can fund this for the first few years.

[Komeht]

Originally Posted by American Luxury

I just can't understand how Cranley can say spending 80 million dollars for nothing is responsible. Even if it is just 50 million, that is a big sum. He put businesses in a corner by giving them a week to decide if they want to spend 80 million to cover operating costs, I'm sure over time that money could be found. In the mean time SORTA can fund this for the first few years.

It should be noted that the cost to pause the project was in excess of what it would have cost to continue the project. 1.8M to 2.7M additional costs.

Oh yeah, but Cranley continues to claim to act in taxpayer interest. . .

[Señor Slick]

Originally Posted by American Luxury

I just can't understand how Cranley can say spending 80 million dollars for nothing is responsible. Even if it is just 50 million, that is a big sum. He put businesses in a corner by giving them a week to decide if they want to spend 80 million to cover operating costs, I'm sure over time that money could be found. In the mean time SORTA can fund this for the first few years.

Unless I just don't understand how the charter amendment would work, I'm surprised someone hasn't brought up the increased cost to the city if the amendment makes it to the ballot in a special election in February and the amendment passes. The city would not only have to spend the money that would be needed now to complete the project but it would also have to come up with an additional $45 million that the Feds are going to take away. Do Cranley and the anti-streetcar faction believe that the amendment would not pass and are therefore willing to take that risk? Pretty big gamble considering a single-issue special election in February would seem to lean in favor of the streetcar folks rallying support much more so than the anti-streetcar folks. It takes some determined voters to get to the polls if the weather is bad.

[Komeht]

Everyone - the amendment is a complete NON issue here. If CC does not vote to continue the project today - it is dead. There will be no FTA money and zero chance of getting it funded entirely by the city.

The whole ball-game is today. It looks like the entire enchilada rests on Flynn's ample belly.