Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Well you have to look at growth rates. If both metros were to continue growing at the same current rates, mathematically the Triangle would inevitably overtake Charlotte. However, we know that metros don't continue to grow at the same rates and there is a whole range of variables that could make for a different outcome.
If the rates were to be constant for both, according to the data rnc2mbfl provided me with, Charlotte still grows numerically higher than Raleigh MSA and Durham MSA combined. The only way this would be possible for Raleigh and Durham MSA to pass Charlotte would be if Charlotte slowed and their pace got higher. Not saying this isn't possible. But if growth rates stay according to this projection, Charlotte will still be a larger MSA.
The growth rates for Raleigh/Cary do not include Durham. Interestingly, if the former Raleigh/Durham MSA was reunited, its growth rate would slow because the Raleigh side grows much faster than the Durham side. However, if Durham's absolute growth numbers were added to Raleigh's, the total absolute growth number would be much higher. Remember, Raleigh's MSA numerical growth is mostly from Wake County alone. I don't know what percentage Wake has made up of the total 3 county Raleigh/Cary MSA but it wouldn't surprise me if 85+% of the growth so far came from it alone.
If you look at the projections of just the three counties that currently make up the Raleigh/Cary MSA, about 1.9 million will reside there in 2025 (though I think that number is actually low). If one adds the current Durham part of the Triangle into the equation, a reunited MSA would have almost 2.5 million by that year. Time will tell what will happen but I wouldn't be surprised if they were reunited by then. The 2025 projection for the combined Triad area is projected to be about 1.34 Million. Just the current Raleigh/Cary MSA will be larger than that combined total by over 500,000.
Charlotte is projected to be 2.66 million in its MSA by then. The Triangle is projected to be about 2.49 million and the Triad about 1.34 million. This is why I say that the Triangle has a better shot of catching Charlotte than the Triad has of ever overtaking the Triangle. It's just a numbers game, not a slam or a put down. It's just the more likely scenario.
Projections come from here:
Projected population of 250 U.S. metros - bizjournals: (http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/pages/257.html - broken link)
I see what you're saying. But the Triad is definitely numerically increased by the addition of Burlington MSA as well as the Thomasville-Lexington micropolitan. Currently by about 250k, and in the future probably by 350k. But with the Triad currently at 1.5 million, it doesn't make sense for it to digress to 1.34 million. Probably, at marginal growth at best, it will be close to 2 million.
On a side note, I was really shocked to see Winston-Salem and Greensboro MSAs so low. Kind of shocking. LOL. And you're absolutely right about the numbers game. I hope I didn't come off confrontational.
...nor am I adding the micropolitan areas associated with the Triangle or Charlotte.
The only micro not included in the Triangle figure is Dunn, which only consists of Harnett County (pop of 115K), so that wouldn't do much for the Triangle figure. I know the (several) micro areas weren't included in the Charlotte figure, because that chart only deals with the top 200 or so largest MSAs.
Quote:
Besides, the combined projected increase for the Raleigh & Durham MSA's is ~1,060,000 through 2025. The combined projected increase for Greensboro & Winston-Salem is ~225,000. Do you really think 3 micropolitan areas included in this discussion make that much of a difference?
Ummm, yeah (and it's 1 metro and 2 micros). The 2009 estimates for the Greensboro-High Point and Winston-Salem MSAs combined is 1,199,686, whereas the total Triad CSA estimate is 1,581,122. That's a 32% difference--381,436--which is larger than Fayetteville's and Wilmington's metro areas, and not too far behind Asheville's. I think that's pretty significant, and would be even more so in the future given more growth. So I think that's a pretty big omission--not saying that you did it intentionally, but I just knew it was off if the projection had the Triad below their current population level and they're not losing people.
If the rates were to be constant for both, according to the data rnc2mbfl provided me with, Charlotte still grows numerically higher than Raleigh MSA and Durham MSA combined. The only way this would be possible for Raleigh and Durham MSA to pass Charlotte would be if Charlotte slowed and their pace got higher. Not saying this isn't possible. But if growth rates stay according to this projection, Charlotte will still be a larger MSA.
I was just saying that if growth rates held constant, at some point the Triangle would numerically outstrip Charlotte in growth as well. Apparently it will be beyond 2025 (which is as far as the projections go in the link), but at some point it would be inevitable. But as I stated, due to a wide range of variables, that's a pretty iffy "if."
The only micro not included in the Triangle figure is Dunn, which only consists of Harnett County (pop of 115K), so that wouldn't do much for the Triangle figure. I know the (several) micro areas weren't included in the Charlotte figure, because that chart only deals with the top 200 or so largest MSAs.
Ummm, yeah (and it's 1 metro and 2 micros). The 2009 estimates for the Greensboro-High Point and Winston-Salem MSAs combined is 1,199,686, whereas the total Triad CSA estimate is 1,581,122. That's a 32% difference--381,436--which is larger than Fayetteville's and Wilmington's metro areas, and not too far behind Asheville's. I think that's pretty significant, and would be even more so in the future given more growth. So I think that's a pretty big omission--not saying that you did it intentionally, but I just knew it was off if the projection had the Triad below their current population level and they're not losing people.
So...essentially, the combined G'boro & W-S MSA's are about the same size population as just the three county Raleigh/Cary MSA. So, we are talking 7 counties compared to 3. In fact, just Wake County alone is 76% of those 7 combined counties' population today. The same is true for Mecklenburg.
I stand by my original thoughts on this issue. There's no way that the Triad's periphery areas will make up the difference in population going forward. You have identified 381K people missing from the CSA for the Triad. But, you also identify 115K missing from the Triangle's CSA. So, quick math says net + 266K for the Triad. That doesn't do a whole lot to close a projected 835K gap based on the core MSA's of both the Triad and Triangle. Plus, as the Triangle grows, there will surely be additional metros and micros added to its CSA. I just don't see the Triad catching the Triangle under any circumstances. Perhaps if they kept counting counties on their periphery??? The Triangle doesn't need to do this to achieve its growth.
On a side note, I can see the area between the Triad and Triangle being a future "battleground" for territory. Who says that the Burlington MSA stays with the Triad? It makes more sense with the Triad but who knows? We've certainly witnessed stupid decisions from the Census Bureau before. On an even more provocative note, who says that the Census won't combine the Triad and Triangle into one CSA in the future? Already the drive from Durham to Greensboro feels much more "daisy chained" than it did decades ago. One hardly feels like they are in no man's land between metros.
The connection of I-40 to the West of Durham and to the Southeast of Raleigh has really changed the development patterns of the entire region in the last 25 years. Remember, as recently as ~1990, one couldn't access through the heart of the Triangle on an Interstate. Only I-85 skirted northern Durham while I-40 was a double dead-end freeway that ran from Raleigh to RTP to Durham via NC 147 (Durham Freeway). Now that 40 connects to 85 to the west and 95 to the South, the future "boundaries of the Triangle are likely to grow.
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
10,138 posts, read 16,043,145 times
Reputation: 4047
Raleigh MSA: 1,125,827 (+ 41.25%)
Charlotte MSA: 1,745,524 (+31.20)
Holy cow, Raleigh exploded, hows its infrastructure handling it?
Austin is doing terrible traffic wise, for a metropolitan area of only 1.9 million or so, its traffic is worse than Houston's. I cannot image seeing what it would be like at 6 million in Metro Austin, they only have one interstate in Austin and their infrastructure already seems like its working double duty.
I stand by my original thoughts on this issue. There's no way that the Triad's periphery areas will make up the difference in population going forward. You have identified 381K people missing from the CSA for the Triad. But, you also identify 115K missing from the Triangle's CSA. So, quick math says net + 266K for the Triad. That doesn't do a whole lot to close a projected 835K gap based on the core MSA's of both the Triad and Triangle.
Oh, don't misunderstand me: I'm in no way saying that the omission of the other areas is going to somehow cause the Triad to leapfrog over the Triangle or Charlotte; they probably won't even help close the gap, but my concern was having a more accurate projection for the Triad CSA. Your overall point still stands; it's just that particular detail that irks me, so to speak, LOL.
I did a rough calculation with the areas that you left out; the size difference is essentially equal without those areas, but it does boost the overall Triad standing a bit. The Triad comes to 1.80 million, while the Triangle comes to 2.66 million.
Quote:
On a side note, I can see the area between the Triad and Triangle being a future "battleground" for territory. Who says that the Burlington MSA stays with the Triad? It makes more sense with the Triad but who knows? We've certainly witnessed stupid decisions from the Census Bureau before. On an even more provocative note, who says that the Census won't combine the Triad and Triangle into one CSA in the future? Already the drive from Durham to Greensboro feels much more "daisy chained" than it did decades ago. One hardly feels like they are in no man's land between metros.
I'd like to see the commuter numbers for Burlington (I know they're out there somewhere, but I don't feel like looking them up). And I really hope that the Triangle and Triad don't get combined, because that would mean the sprawl would be 50x worse than what it is right now.
I'd like to see the commuter numbers for Burlington (I know they're out there somewhere, but I don't feel like looking them up). And I really hope that the Triangle and Triad don't get combined, because that would mean the sprawl would be 50x worse than what it is right now.
What's going to matter is how people behave more than what the Census does. Already, the counties between Durham and Greensboro are being chosen by dual income couples looking for a location where one works in the Triad and other in the Triangle. The dividing line of the CSA's at the Alamance/Orange Counties line is becoming a lot more fuzzy these days.
What's going to matter is how people behave more than what the Census does. Already, the counties between Durham and Greensboro are being chosen by dual income couples looking for a location where one works in the Triad and other in the Triangle. The dividing line of the CSA's at the Alamance/Orange Counties line is becoming a lot more fuzzy these days.
I believe it. It's been a little while since I've driven that stretch (last time I went to DC, I flew instead of drove), but I'm not holding my breath that local leaders are going to smartly accommodate and plan for future growth.
Location: The Greatest city on Earth: City of Atlanta Proper
8,485 posts, read 14,994,819 times
Reputation: 7333
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidphilly
so far 2010 estimates are flat and the bottom end of those rates are on par with hardly growing areas like Phily for example - that is almost a natural growth rate based on the population.
I also just read an article that stated Phoenix may actually show a decline this year and all indications suggest Atlanta is flat this year taking away natural growth
While the recession has put the breaks on the massive relocations seen in the earlier part of the decade...
-It's not a complete stop
-and you say that the "largest part of growth will be from natural increase" like it's a small number
I was speaking to a friend the other day who is a nurse at Northside Hospital(and this information is totally unscientific and i haven't found anything to back it up yet) who said that all of the Metro hospitals combined average about 250 newborns a day over the course of a year. That works out to about 91000 new residents, and when you remove deaths (which are pretty small for a metro area this size given the population overall is pretty young) then you still have pretty big yearly population growth.
Besides, I'll echo what someone said earlier. It's not like growth has stopped. It went from an average of 120,000 new residents a year to 90,000 new residents last year. In other words, barely noticeable. Not to mention, those are just estimates. When the official Census comes in, I'm more than confident all of the largest growing Metros will add a few hundred thousand people over this years estimates. It's the nature of the game that when an area is growing at a rate of 20 to 30% you will miss A LOT of people. The only exception to this is Las Vegas. They are by all accounts dead in the water in terms of growth. They've even got a worse unemployment than Detroit.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
