2012 Census Estimates released. (best, places, difference, market)
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There's a chance that Shelby County will become Tennessee's first county with 1,000,000+ population in 2020. The current rate of growth has it on pace for 993,260, so if its rate of growth increases slightly as the decade progresses, then the 1,000,000 mark will be easy to attain. Also noteworthy is that Shelby County accounts for the vast majority of numeric growth in the Memphis MSA.
Elsewhere, I feel bad for Ohio. Cincinnati and Columbus are the only MSAs in Ohio with both a year-over-year increase and an increase since 2010. Canton had a year-over-year increase, but has decreased since 2010. Dayton is the reverse, with a year-over-year decrease, but an increase since 2010. Every other MSA in Ohio has been steadily losing population, according to the estimates.
There's a chance that Shelby County will become Tennessee's first county with 1,000,000+ population in 2020. The current rate of growth has it on pace for 993,260, so if its rate of growth increases slightly as the decade progresses, then the 1,000,000 mark will be easy to attain. Also noteworthy is that Shelby County accounts for the vast majority of numeric growth in the Memphis MSA.
I noticed that, too. If it continues, it will be a really good sign for Memphis.
Regardless, Shelby is going to be first to cross that barrier just because it has such a big lead. Davidson might be closing the gap, but it's just too far back. Davidson is on pace to hit 734,000 by 2020. Shelby would have to simply stop growing for a couple of decades for Davidson to catch it.
The Research Triangle of North Carolina is poised to be the next 2 million person CSA in the US.
As of 2012 Census estimates, Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill was sitting at 1,998,808.
Counties in the CSA:
Wake 952151
Durham 279641
Orange 137941
Johnston 174938
Harnett 122135
franklin 61475
Granville 60436
Person 39268
Lee 59715
Chatham 65976
Vance 45,132
+3.5% - Oklahoma City, OK
+3.3% - Nashville, TN
+3.3% - Salt Lake City, CA
+3.3% - Seattle, WA
+3.3% - Phoenix, AZ
+3.2% - Atlanta, GA
+3.1% - San Jose, CA
+3.1% - New Orleans, LA
+3.0% - Riverside/San Bernardino, CA
+2.9% - Las Vegas, NV
+2.9% - Portland, OR
+2.8% - San Francisco/Oakland, CA
+2.6% - San Diego, CA
+2.4% - Jacksonville, FL
+2.2% - Columbus, OH
+2.2% - Sacramento, CA
+2.2% - Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN
+2.2% - Indianapolis, IN
+2.1% - Tampa, FL
+2.0% - Richmond, VA
+1.9% - Boston, MA
+1.8% - Los Angeles, CA
+1.7% - Grand Rapids, MI
+1.6% - Baltimore, MD
+1.5% - Kansas City, MO
+1.4% - Virginia Beach/Norfolk, VA
+1.4% - New York, NY
+1.3% - Memphis, TN
+1.3% - Louisville, KY
+0.9% - Philadelphia, PA
+0.8% - Birmingham, AL
+0.7% - Milwaukee, WI
+0.7% - Cincinnati, OH
+0.7% - Chicago, IL
+0.3% - St. Louis, MO
+0.2% - Rochester, NY
+0.2% - Pittsburgh, PA
+0.2% - Hartford, CT
+0.0% - Providence, RI
-0.1% - Detroit, MI
-0.1% - Buffalo, NY
-0.7% - Cleveland, OH
The most noteworthy trends are four of the five fastest-growing metropolitan areas being in Texas; the dramatic rate increases in Columbus, Nashville and New Orleans; the dramatic rate decreases in Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix; and Pittsburgh changing from negative to positive growth.
Projected 2020 population of all MSAs with 1,000,000+ population
20,889,650 - New York, NY
13,949,257 - Los Angeles, CA
9,767,750 - Chicago, IL
7,800,099 - Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
7,203,511 - Houston, TX
6,756,782 - Washington, DC
6,555,045 - Miami, FL
6,232,628 - Philadelphia, PA
6,142,243 - Atlanta, GA
4,994,402 - Boston, MA
4,936,236 - San Francisco/Oakland, CA
4,876,122 - Phoenix, AZ
4,851,076 - Riverside/San Bernardino, CA
4,275,300 - Detroit, MI
4,001,549 - Seattle, WA
3,715,884 - Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN
3,504,063 - San Diego, CA
3,081,418 - Tampa, FL
3,052,117 - Denver, CO
2,923,789 - Baltimore, MD
2,828,166 - St. Louis, MO
2,614,797 - Charlotte, NC
2,599,983 - San Antonio, TX
2,580,726 - Orlando, FL
2,554,964 - Portland, OR
2,385,902 - Sacramento, CA
2,378,525 - Pittsburgh, PA
2,232,869 - Las Vegas, NV
2,306,259 - Austin, TX
2,184,695 - Cincinnati, OH
2,156,252 - Kansas City, MO
2,124,296 - San Jose, CA
2,112,114 - Columbus, OH
2,093,402 - Indianapolis, IN
2,008,715 - Cleveland, OH
1,949,545 - Nashville, TN
1,792,337 - Virginia Beach/Norfolk, VA
1,611,273 - Milwaukee, WI
1,603,462 - Providence, RI
1,506,866 - Jacksonville, FL
1,470,877 - Oklahoma City, OK
1,420,860 - Raleigh, NC
1,409,134 - Memphis, TN
1,376,016 - New Orleans, LA
1,327,496 - Richmond, VA
1,313,923 - Louisville, KY
1,267,068 - Salt Lake City, UT
1,222,476 - Hartford, CT
1,171,062 - Birmingham, AL
1,129,014 - Buffalo, NY
1,092,736 - Rochester, NY
1,072,488 - Grand Rapids, MI
1,069,032 - Honolulu, HI
1,040,918 - Tucson, AZ
1,017,675 - Fresno, CA
1,009,488 - Tulsa, OK
1,001,859 - Bridgeport/Stamford, CT
Congratulations to Grand Rapids, MI for becoming the 52nd metropolitan area to reach 1,000,000+ population, as of the 2012 estimates.
Next in line will be Honolulu, HI; Tucson, AZ; Fresno, CA; Tulsa, OK and Bridgeport/Stamford, CT. Not far behind in the 900,000 club will be (alphabetically) Albany, NY; Albuquerque, NM; Bakersfield, CA; El Paso, TX; Greenville, SC; Omaha, NE and Worcester, MA.
Change in MSA ranking (2010-2020)
+6 - Austin, TX
+5 - Raleigh, NC
+3 - Las Vegas, NV
+3 - Salt Lake City, UT
+2 - Denver, CO
+2 - Orlando, FL
+2 - San Antonio, TX
+2 - San Jose, CA
+1 - Charlotte, NC
+1 - Fresno, CA
+1 - Honolulu, HI
+1 - Miami, FL
+1 - Milwaukee, WI
+1 - New Orleans, LA
+1 - Oklahoma City, OK
+1 - Phoenix, AZ
+1 - Sacramento, CAZ
+1 - Washington, DC
0 - Atlanta, GA
0 - Baltimore, MD
0 - Boston, MA
0 - Bridgeport/Stamford, CT
0 - Chicago, IL
0 - Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
0 - Detroit, MI
0 - Grand Rapids, MI
0 - Houston, TX
0 - Jacksonville, FL
0 - Los Angeles, CA
0 - Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN
0 - Nashville, TN
0 - New York, NY
0 - Rochester, NY
0 - San Diego, CA
0 - San Francisco/Oakland, CA
0 - Seattle, WA
0 - Tampa, FL
0 - Virginia Beach/Norfolk, VA
-1 - Birmingham, AL
-1 - Buffalo, NY
-1 - Columbus, OH
-1 - Indianapolis, IN
-1 - Kansas City, MO
-1 - Portland, OR
-1 - Providence, RI
-1 - Richmond, VA
-1 - Riverside/San Bernardino, CA
-1 - Tucson, AZ
-1 - Tulsa, OK
-2 - Cincinnati, OH
-2 - Hartford, CT
-2 - Memphis, TN
-2 - Philadelphia, PA
-2 - St. Louis, MO
-3 - Louisville, KY
-5 - Pittsburgh, PA
-6 - Cleveland, OH
NOTE: The population and rank change projections assume that no metropolitan area adds or subtracts counties.
For those interested in rural county population changes, look at the energy patch counties in North Dakota. Most have seen double digit increases in the last 2 years alone. These energy patch areas remain the fastest growing rural counties in the US with small metro military base counties seeing large percentage increases as well.
I'm also a little surprised at this too. St. Louis's city population has been on a slow decline for decades, while Tampa's city population has been on a steady increase for decades. The real big surprise is that Tampa is now the second largest metro in all of Florida, and in the top 15 for the United States. Florida, Texas, California, Georgia, and North Carolina are all experiencing TREMENDOUS growth, while the rest of the United States is stagnant or growing slowly.
Tampa has been the second largest metro in Florida since the 1930s or something. That hasn't changed much. lol.
Tampa's growth rate is slowing down though. Prior to the recession Tampa was growing at 2% annually. Now, it is only growing at 1%. The warm weather will always be an magnet that will draw people here, but the economy SUCKS. I have been trying to get out of Tampa for years because there is just no hope of forming a fruitful career here. Ugh. I hate it so much.
Florida, Texas, California, Georgia, and North Carolina are all experiencing TREMENDOUS growth, while the rest of the United States is stagnant or growing slowly.
Tampa has been the second largest metro in Florida since the 1930s or something. That hasn't changed much. lol.
Tampa's growth rate is slowing down though. Prior to the recession Tampa was growing at 2% annually. Now, it is only growing at 1%. The warm weather will always be an magnet that will draw people here, but the economy SUCKS. I have been trying to get out of Tampa for years because there is just no hope of forming a fruitful career here. Ugh. I hate it so much.
A metro area of over 4 million people the economy sucks? What's so bad about it?
A fast growing metro area without a stable economy isn't good for Tampa!. Also the 2020 prediction with Nashville knocking on Cleveland door is unbelievable?
I thought Atlanta would be larger than Miami? I guess not.
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