Which of these places will be the next 6 million persons (+) area in North America? (map, compare)

[Republic of Michigan]

Originally Posted by MS313

I can speak from experience that Windsor and Detroit works as one metropolitan region. People very often cross the border to shop, work, play, ect and even hold events that involves both sides of the border. Unlike Buffalo and Toronto, I highly doubt Windsor would exist without Detroit.

Yes, that is a given. But I'm wondering what are people's take on the Toledo-Detroit idea. Detroit's CSA borders Toledo's MSA. Once you cross the state line you move from Detroit's CSA into Toledo's MSA. Does that exist elsewhere? Meaning, are there two contiguous MSA/CSAs or two CSAs bordering each other? Maybe on the east coast or in California....just guessing.

[pnwguy2]

OK, then why not combine Seattle and Vancouver BC? The total CSA would be well over 6 million, probably 7 or 8. So many Canadians drive into the US for lower prices on shopping, gas, food, etc, then why not. Well, the answer is because they are not combined. There is simply too much undeveloped land between the two to make any argument of such. However, the Detroit/Windsor, and San Diego/Tijuana are different scenerios.

[18Montclair]

Looked at the areas that had 6 million+ populations going back to 1970...

1970
1 New York CSA 20,308,866
2 Los Angeles CSA 10,000,090
3 Chicago CSA 8,253,385
4 Boston CSA 6,486,126
5 Philadelphia CSA 6,069,014

1980
1 New York CSA 19,783,690
2 Los Angeles CSA 11,559,867
3 Chicago CSA 8,421,654
4 Boston CSA 6,678,185
5 Washington CSA 6,106,063
6 Philadelphia CSA 6,065,722

1990
1 New York CSA 20,544,847
2 Los Angeles CSA 14,597,731
3 Chicago CSA 8,555,583
4 Boston CSA 7,158,101
5 Washington CSA 7,089,432
6 San Francisco CSA 6,813,806
7 Philadelphia CSA 6,353,801

2000
1 New York CSA 22,282,684
2 Los Angeles CSA 16,426,232
3 Chicago 9,480,318
4 Washington CSA 8,014,099
5 San Francisco CSA 7,680,283
6 Boston CSA 7,647,280
7 Philadelphia CSA 6,695,994

2010
1 New York CSA 23,114,589
2 Los Angeles CSA 17,914,906
3 Chicago CSA 9,849,717
4 Washington CSA 9,088,883
5 San Francisco CSA 8,173,963
6 Boston CSA 7,909,009
7 Philadephia CSA 7,075,375
8 Dallas CSA 6,844,716
9 Miami CSA 6,190,026
10 Houston CSA 6,143,778

2014
1 New York CSA 23,632,722
2 Los Angeles CSA 18,550,288
3 Chicago CSA 9,928,312
4 Washington CSA 9,546,579
5 San Francisco CSA 8,607,423
6 Boston CSA 8,099,575
7 Dallas CSA 7,352,613
8 Philadelphia CSA 7,164,790
9 Houston CSA 6,686,318
10 Miami CSA 6,558,143
11 Atlanta CSA 6,258,875

[manitopiaaa]

So here's a very rough extrapolation of the CSA 2025 populations assuming the exact same rate of growth from July 2010-July 2014 (a big assumption). The US should have six over 1 million people:

1. Albany 1,186,770
2. Albuquerque 1,211,547
3. Atlanta 7,164,791
4. Austin 2,536,078
5. Birmingham 1,355,651
6. Boston 8,623,632
7. Buffalo 1,213,285
8. Cape Coral 1,262,202
9. Charlotte 2,965,601
10. Chattanooga 1,001,531
11. Chicago 10,144,448
12. Cincinnati 2,294,214
13. Cleveland 3,455,383
14. Columbia 1,007,677
15. Columbus 2,633,067
16. Dallas 8,749,330
17. Dayton 1,068,901
18. Denver 4,007,423
19. Detroit 5,320,790
20. El Paso 1,141,256
21. Fresno 1,221,519
22. Grand Rapids 1,537,078
23. Greensboro 1,736,826
24. Greenville 1,533,904
25. Harrisburg 1,291,042
26. Hartford 1,487,553
27. Houston 8,178,303
28. Indianapolis 2,580,791
29. Jacksonville 1,733,735
30. Kansas City 2,587,173
31. Knoxville 1,172,780
32. Las Vegas 2,639,321
33. Los Angeles 20,297,589
34. Louisville 1,594,538
35. McAllen 1,041,582
36. Memphis 1,412,416
37. Miami 7,570,465
38. Milwaukee 2,091,801
39. Minneapolis 4,230,137
40. Nashville 2,240,405
41. New Orleans 1,645,958
42. New York 25,057,588
43. Oklahoma City 1,631,446
44. Omaha 1,041,130
45. Orlando 3,653,611
46. Philadelphia 7,410,681
47. Phoenix 5,258,455
48. Pittsburgh 2,634,515
49. Portland 3,422,303
50. Raleigh 2,496,250
51. Richmond 1,397,436
52. Rochester 1,183,154
53. Sacramento 2,768,207
54. Saint Louis 2,954,397
55. Salt Lake City 2,816,901
56. San Antonio 2,810,994
57. San Diego 3,700,373
58. San Francisco 9,799,438
59. San Juan 2,221,134
60. Sarasota 1,100,389
61. Seattle 5,192,945
62. Tampa 3,262,764
63. Tucson 1,111,414
64. Tulsa 1,222,757
65. Virginia Beach 1,920,465
66. Washington 10,805,243

Of these, the following are already at 6 million:
1. Atlanta 7,164,791
2. Boston 8,623,632
3. Chicago 10,144,448
4. Dallas-Fort Worth 8,749,330
5. Houston 8,178,303
6. Los Angeles 20,297,589
7. New York 25,057,588
8. Philadelphia 7,410,681
9. San Francisco-San Jose 9,799,438
10. Washington-Baltimore 10,805,243

And here are those at 4-5 million. As can be seen, none, even in 2025, are close to passing 6 million people.
Denver 4,007,423
Detroit 5,320,790
Minneapolis 4,230,137
Phoenix 5,258,455
Seattle 5,192,945

So what about presuming they add counties to their CSAs in 2020? This is all based on commuting patterns which are erratic but we can infer based on 'connectivity'

Denver: Denver is an interesting case because I do believe, in time, it will add Fort Collins and Colorado Springs to its CSA. Denver to Fort Collins is a 1hr drive. Same for Colorado Springs. That's much less than many other CSA configuration. If/when they are added Denver will quickly move up the ranks. Adding Fort Collins will give, in 2025, around 375,000 people, if not slightly more. That would bump up the CSA total from 4 million to 4.4 million. Add in Colorado Spring in 2025 would be another 800,000 people. That would bump Denver up past the psychological 5 million mark to 5.2 million. From there, it's just another decade or decade and a half of growth to pass 6 million. HOWEVER, I don't think Denver adds either in 2020. Fort Collins, maybe, in 2030. Colorado Springs maybe in 2040.

Detroit: Detroit is a weird case because you could add a good 400,000 people by adding Windsor and Sarnia to its CSA. That would boost the CSA to 5,700,000 and get you really close to the 6 million figure. As for adding counties? Detroit CSA could, theoretically, add Jackson MSA for 160,000 people. That's a stretch though, but then again I think Adrian County being in Detroit's CSA is a stretch. Jackson County bumps Detroit, then, up to 5,860,000. Adding Toledo is the best bet for Detroit. It would add ~640k to Detroit, bumping up the CSA to 6,500,000 people. And that 500,000 is a good buffer for the CSA's population dipping again below 6 million (the whole area will still be hemorrhaging population unless Detroit turns it around this decade).

Minneapolis: It's possible that Minneapolis adds a few more small, rural counties on its periphery. That said, it will at most get 50,000 people from them. The golden egg for Minneapolis is adding Rochester's ~275,000 CSA by 2025. That would push the Minneapolis CSA to 4.5 million. Still far from 6 million though.

Phoenix: Nearly impossible. Every other county from Maricopa-Pinal is far away from Phoenix (think 1.5 hours drive time one-way). The nearest major cities are Tucson, 1h47m away and it's own CSA and Prescott far to the north. Don't bank on Phoenix adding counties in 2020

Seattle: Highly unlikely. Everything to the east is isolated by the mountains and the CSA already extends up until Bellingham MSA so no northern growth. To the south is Portland CSA and to the west is sparsely populated villages that ring Olympic National Park. So adding counties is unlikely

OTHERS

Cleveland: CSA is already quite large. No new additions will change trajectory of below 3.5 million people in the CSA.

Tampa: I agree that Tampa's CSA is too limited. Tampa in 2025 will be 3.3 million. Sarasota CSA will add 1.1 million for 4.4 million. Then Lakeland will add ~700k for 5.1 million. Add in Wauchula for a negligible boost of 30k and then Homossasa Springs's 140k means a metro of ~5.3 million in 2025 in a best case scenario. It joins the elite 5 million+ club, but doesn't get past 6 million.

Orlando: Orlando in 2025 is projected at 3.65 million. Considering that Miami's CSA goes up to Vero Beach though, I think Orlando could be in place for major CSA expansion. The two biggest are Brevard and Marion. Brevard County would add 600k to make Orlando's total 4.25 million. Then adding Marion County gives another 360k for 4.6 million.

San Diego: No CSA expansion will occur. Growth in Tijuana will determine everything. San Diego will have 3.7 million in 2025. If Tijuana gets to 2.3 million, then 6 million is there. Estimates say 2.5 million which would bring the San Diego-Tijuana CSA to 6.2 million.

In Conclusion, Best Case Scenarios for 2025:
Cleveland: 3.5 million
Denver: 5.2 million
Detroit: 6.5 million
Minneapolis: 4.2 million
Orlando: 4.6 million
Phoenix: 5.3 million
San Diego: 6.2 million
Seattle: 5.2 million
Tampa: 5.3 million

[Dawn.Davenport]

Originally Posted by manitopiaaa

Minneapolis: It's possible that Minneapolis adds a few more small, rural counties on its periphery. That said, it will at most get 50,000 people from them. The golden egg for Minneapolis is adding Rochester's ~275,000 CSA by 2025. That would push the Minneapolis CSA to 4.5 million. Still far from 6 million though.

The Eau Claire-Menomonie CSA (205,000) and the Mankato MSA (123,000) are both in counties that border the Minneapolis-Saint Paul CSA. Adding these, plus Rochester and projected growth within the CSA, would put 5 million within reach for Minneapolis by 2020.

[NowInWI]

Eau Claire is far enough into Wisconsin, and far enough away from Minneapolis, that it won't be included in the CSA of Minneapolis. Unless many of the residents of Eau Claire leave their jobs in Eau Claire to commute 90 miles to Minneapolis, that's not going to happen. Mankato is 80 miles away....this projection is a stretch, to say the least. There is the same distance between Milwaukee and Chicago, so I guess you could say Milwaukee will grow by millions.

https://www.google.com/maps/@44.1250887,-90.5827816,7z

[pnwguy2]

I really must disagree with you on Seattle. You say currently it is just under 5.2, but your 2025 projections only add a few thousand. This with a growth rate of 4-6% decade wise. How do those numbers add up? I understand your reasoning about the Cascades to the east, the Sound to the west, but what you may not realize is both these are areas have a a lot, and I mean A LOT of open land. I would advise you to recalculate.

[manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by pnwguy2

I really must disagree with you on Seattle. You say currently it is just under 5.2, but your 2025 projections only add a few thousand. This with a growth rate of 6-9% decade wise. How do those numbers add up? I understand your reasoning about the Cascades to the east, the Sound to the west, but what you may not realize is both these are areas have a a lot, and I mean A LOT of open land. I would advise you to recalculate.

No, the population is currently at 4,526,991 people. In 10 years, assuming the rate of growth remains constant, it will be 5,192,945. That presumes growth of about 65,000 per annum.

[Mr Ambitious]

Originally Posted by NowInWI

Eau Claire is far enough into Wisconsin, and far enough away from Minneapolis, that it won't be included in the CSA of Minneapolis. Unless many of the residents of Eau Claire leave their jobs in Eau Claire to commute 90 miles to Minneapolis, that's not going to happen. Mankato is 80 miles away....this projection is a stretch, to say the least. There is the same distance between Milwaukee and Chicago, so I guess you could say Milwaukee will grow by millions.

https://www.google.com/maps/@44.1250887,-90.5827816,7z

I was tempted to say Milwaukee, but I know that wont happen anytime soon. It would be nice for both sides if it does ever happen.

[pnwguy2]

deleted, misunderstood.