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So here's a very rough extrapolation of the CSA 2025 populations assuming the exact same rate of growth from July 2010-July 2014 (a big assumption). The US should have six over 1 million people:
2025
New York 25,057,588
Los Angeles 20,297,589
Washington DC 10,805,243
Chicago 10,144,448
San Francisco 9,799,438
Dallas 8,749,330
Boston 8,623,632
Houston 8,178,303
Miami 7,570,465
Philadelphia 7,410,681
Atlanta 7,164,791
Detroit 5,320,790
Phoenix 5,258,455
Seattle 5,192,945
Minneapolis 4,230,137
Denver 4,007,423
I do see the Bay Area hitting 10 Million in the coming decade, or at least coming close.
Eau Claire is far enough into Wisconsin, and far enough away from Minneapolis, that it won't be included in the CSA of Minneapolis. Unless many of the residents of Eau Claire leave their jobs in Eau Claire to commute 90 miles to Minneapolis, that's not going to happen. Mankato is 80 miles away....this projection is a stretch, to say the least. There is the same distance between Milwaukee and Chicago, so I guess you could say Milwaukee will grow by millions.
Eau Claire is not much further from Minneapolis than St. Cloud, which is already part of the Minneapolis CSA.
CSAs are kind of absurd. Allentown, PA is considered part of New York City; the entire state of Rhode Island is considered part of Boston; Ocean City, NJ is part of Philadelphia; and the Portland CSA includes the entire Willamette Valley.
Las Vegas, New Mexico (124 miles away) is considered part of Albuquerque.
Romney, West Virginia is 132 miles from Washington DC (two and a half hours away by car), and yet they're in the same CSA.
The most absurd is Needles, California, which is considered part of Los Angeles' CSA despite being 256 miles and nearly a four-hour drive away!
Given this, I think a San Antonio-Austin (79 miles apart) merger could yield a CSA with 6M+ in the near future depending on Austin's growth rate.
Last edited by Dawn.Davenport; 11-27-2015 at 07:14 PM..
Eau Claire is not much further from Minneapolis than St. Cloud, which is already part of the Minneapolis CSA.
CSAs are kind of absurd. Allentown, PA is considered part of New York City; the entire state of Rhode Island is considered part of Boston; Ocean City, NJ is part of Philadelphia; and the Portland CSA includes the entire Willamette Valley.
Las Vegas, New Mexico (124 miles away) is considered part of Albuquerque.
Romney, West Virginia is 132 miles from Washington DC (two and a half hours away by car), and yet they're in the same CSA.
The most absurd is Needles, California, which is considered part of Los Angeles' CSA despite being 256 miles and nearly a four-hour drive away!
Given this, I think a San Antonio-Austin (79 miles apart) merger could yield a CSA with 6M+ in the near future depending on Austin's growth rate.
Eau Claire, I really doubt, will ever be in the Minneapolis CSA. There is a whole lot of country between the two cities....with no towns. This is sooo unlikely, but you can keep hoping, if you want.
Eau Claire, I really doubt, will ever be in the Minneapolis CSA. There is a whole lot of country between the two cities....with no towns. This is sooo unlikely, but you can keep hoping, if you want.
There is no chance of Eau Claire ever being apart of the Minneapolis MSA, but CSA is an absurd statistic.
If Romney could be part of the Washington CSA, if Las Vegas could be part of the Albuquerque CSA, and if Needles could be part of LA CSA, than Eau Claire could totally be part of the Minneapolis CSA.
However, I don't really see the point of the CSA statistic.
If someone has to mention csa over msa (not saying mutiny is doing this), it's to somehow boast about a particular place to which they have positive feelings... I can only speak on places I know so for example...
DFW csa includes Sherman, Granbury, Corsicana...... ??? really,,, How many people in the metro can say they've been to those places. Those places are way different from the metro. Like night and day.
Same thing for Charlotte whose csa includes places like Shelby, NC or Raleigh whose csa includes Oxford, Dunn and Henderson... Hardly anyone in the metro knows of those tiny, one stop light towns.
OP didn't include miami and atlanta who would be next in line...
Out of the ones he did choose as options...
PHX is next in line. They are having great population growth.
Maybe it can absorb Modesto-Merced at some point? That's 800k right there and SFBA easily crosses 10 mil.
At this point, it's inevitable that Modesto-Merced will some dat merge into the Bay Area CSA given the strong Bay Area job maket and affordable housing markets in the Central Valley.
Even the Central Bay Area, which I define as the SF MSA and Santa Clara County, if current growth rates continue, I see the current 6.4 Million population( and current GDP of $625 Billion) swelling to 7.4 Million in the next decade, which is amazing.
And then there are Lake, Mendocino and Monterey Counties in the future and eventually the Greater Sacramento Area yet to think about.
The Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA makes sense. They're part of the same TV/sports markets, local news covers all 3 cities, and there is a lot of commuting between the 3.
So here's a very rough extrapolation of the CSA 2025 populations assuming the exact same rate of growth from July 2010-July 2014 (a big assumption). The US should have six over 1 million people:
1. Albany 1,186,770
2. Albuquerque 1,211,547
3. Atlanta 7,164,791
4. Austin 2,536,078
5. Birmingham 1,355,651
6. Boston 8,623,632
7. Buffalo 1,213,285
8. Cape Coral 1,262,202
9. Charlotte 2,965,601
10. Chattanooga 1,001,531
11. Chicago 10,144,448
12. Cincinnati 2,294,214
13. Cleveland 3,455,383
14. Columbia 1,007,677
15. Columbus 2,633,067
16. Dallas 8,749,330
17. Dayton 1,068,901
18. Denver 4,007,423
19. Detroit 5,320,790
20. El Paso 1,141,256
21. Fresno 1,221,519
22. Grand Rapids 1,537,078
23. Greensboro 1,736,826
24. Greenville 1,533,904
25. Harrisburg 1,291,042
26. Hartford 1,487,553
27. Houston 8,178,303
28. Indianapolis 2,580,791
29. Jacksonville 1,733,735
30. Kansas City 2,587,173
31. Knoxville 1,172,780
32. Las Vegas 2,639,321
33. Los Angeles 20,297,589
34. Louisville 1,594,538
35. McAllen 1,041,582
36. Memphis 1,412,416
37. Miami 7,570,465
38. Milwaukee 2,091,801
39. Minneapolis 4,230,137
40. Nashville 2,240,405
41. New Orleans 1,645,958
42. New York 25,057,588
43. Oklahoma City 1,631,446
44. Omaha 1,041,130
45. Orlando 3,653,611
46. Philadelphia 7,410,681
47. Phoenix 5,258,455
48. Pittsburgh 2,634,515
49. Portland 3,422,303
50. Raleigh 2,496,250
51. Richmond 1,397,436
52. Rochester 1,183,154
53. Sacramento 2,768,207
54. Saint Louis 2,954,397
55. Salt Lake City 2,816,901
56. San Antonio 2,810,994
57. San Diego 3,700,373
58. San Francisco 9,799,438
59. San Juan 2,221,134
60. Sarasota 1,100,389
61. Seattle 5,192,945
62. Tampa 3,262,764
63. Tucson 1,111,414
64. Tulsa 1,222,757
65. Virginia Beach 1,920,465
66. Washington 10,805,243
Of these, the following are already at 6 million:
1. Atlanta 7,164,791
2. Boston 8,623,632
3. Chicago 10,144,448
4. Dallas-Fort Worth 8,749,330
5. Houston 8,178,303
6. Los Angeles 20,297,589
7. New York 25,057,588
8. Philadelphia 7,410,681
9. San Francisco-San Jose 9,799,438
10. Washington-Baltimore 10,805,243
And here are those at 4-5 million. As can be seen, none, even in 2025, are close to passing 6 million people.
Denver 4,007,423
Detroit 5,320,790
Minneapolis 4,230,137
Phoenix 5,258,455
Seattle 5,192,945
So what about presuming they add counties to their CSAs in 2020? This is all based on commuting patterns which are erratic but we can infer based on 'connectivity'
Denver: Denver is an interesting case because I do believe, in time, it will add Fort Collins and Colorado Springs to its CSA. Denver to Fort Collins is a 1hr drive. Same for Colorado Springs. That's much less than many other CSA configuration. If/when they are added Denver will quickly move up the ranks. Adding Fort Collins will give, in 2025, around 375,000 people, if not slightly more. That would bump up the CSA total from 4 million to 4.4 million. Add in Colorado Spring in 2025 would be another 800,000 people. That would bump Denver up past the psychological 5 million mark to 5.2 million. From there, it's just another decade or decade and a half of growth to pass 6 million. HOWEVER, I don't think Denver adds either in 2020. Fort Collins, maybe, in 2030. Colorado Springs maybe in 2040.
Detroit: Detroit is a weird case because you could add a good 400,000 people by adding Windsor and Sarnia to its CSA. That would boost the CSA to 5,700,000 and get you really close to the 6 million figure. As for adding counties? Detroit CSA could, theoretically, add Jackson MSA for 160,000 people. That's a stretch though, but then again I think Adrian County being in Detroit's CSA is a stretch. Jackson County bumps Detroit, then, up to 5,860,000. Adding Toledo is the best bet for Detroit. It would add ~640k to Detroit, bumping up the CSA to 6,500,000 people. And that 500,000 is a good buffer for the CSA's population dipping again below 6 million (the whole area will still be hemorrhaging population unless Detroit turns it around this decade).
Minneapolis: It's possible that Minneapolis adds a few more small, rural counties on its periphery. That said, it will at most get 50,000 people from them. The golden egg for Minneapolis is adding Rochester's ~275,000 CSA by 2025. That would push the Minneapolis CSA to 4.5 million. Still far from 6 million though.
Phoenix: Nearly impossible. Every other county from Maricopa-Pinal is far away from Phoenix (think 1.5 hours drive time one-way). The nearest major cities are Tucson, 1h47m away and it's own CSA and Prescott far to the north. Don't bank on Phoenix adding counties in 2020
Seattle: Highly unlikely. Everything to the east is isolated by the mountains and the CSA already extends up until Bellingham MSA so no northern growth. To the south is Portland CSA and to the west is sparsely populated villages that ring Olympic National Park. So adding counties is unlikely
OTHERS
Cleveland: CSA is already quite large. No new additions will change trajectory of below 3.5 million people in the CSA.
Tampa: I agree that Tampa's CSA is too limited. Tampa in 2025 will be 3.3 million. Sarasota CSA will add 1.1 million for 4.4 million. Then Lakeland will add ~700k for 5.1 million. Add in Wauchula for a negligible boost of 30k and then Homossasa Springs's 140k means a metro of ~5.3 million in 2025 in a best case scenario. It joins the elite 5 million+ club, but doesn't get past 6 million.
Orlando: Orlando in 2025 is projected at 3.65 million. Considering that Miami's CSA goes up to Vero Beach though, I think Orlando could be in place for major CSA expansion. The two biggest are Brevard and Marion. Brevard County would add 600k to make Orlando's total 4.25 million. Then adding Marion County gives another 360k for 4.6 million.
San Diego: No CSA expansion will occur. Growth in Tijuana will determine everything. San Diego will have 3.7 million in 2025. If Tijuana gets to 2.3 million, then 6 million is there. Estimates say 2.5 million which would bring the San Diego-Tijuana CSA to 6.2 million.
In Conclusion, Best Case Scenarios for 2025:
Cleveland: 3.5 million
Denver: 5.2 million
Detroit: 6.5 million
Minneapolis: 4.2 million
Orlando: 4.6 million
Phoenix: 5.3 million
San Diego: 6.2 million
Seattle: 5.2 million
Tampa: 5.3 million
True that it's unlikely that Seattle will add any other county to its CSA, but there is still a lot of room with in its current boundaries. The biggest potential for very fast growth is the kitsap peninsula. If Washington invests more money into a larger a faster ferry serves, that region can grow a lot. To put this in perspective Bremerton with a population of 38,572 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bremerton,_Washington is only a 17 mile ferry ride away from downtown Seattle, however that ride takes 1 hour, which doesn't include the already long lines and wait time. The ferries maximum speed is just 18mph, compared to high speed pasenger ferry between Seattle and Victoria that travel up to 34mph. Also it doesn't have to be Washington state ferry, it could be a private high speed water taxi service. Another thing that has come up from time to time is to build a bridge across the puget sound (Washington ferry was originally supposed to operate temporary until funds could be found to build a bridge) however the biggest optical is not money or the engineering, but the residents of Vashon and vain bridge island who do not want their rural islands turn in to suburbia. Also with a faster ferry service, Whidby Island would also grow considering it's much drier climate would be a great draw https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oak_Harbor,_Washington Olympic Rain Shadow Map and Location
Further more still a lot of growth potential around Olympia, south and north of Tacoma, east of Bellevue/samamish lake, and north east of Everett, as long as those named cities have more employment offered. And if Olympia grows a lot, Centrelia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centralia,_Washington might merge in with its MSA.
I don't know if Seattle will be the first to cross the 6 mill line, but it definitely will, and there is plenty of room to grow.
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