Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
These are interesting figures. Do you see any cities changing positions in the future?
Quote:
Originally Posted by creeksitter
They are all so close. I can see Nashville going to the top of that list and Richmond popping up above Louisville & Memphis. Louisville will go above Memphis unless Memphis stems its decline.
If current growth trends continue, Raleigh will be at the top of this list in a few years and Nashville would follow Raleigh past Jax several years after that. Richmond will pass Louisville and make ground on Memphis methodically though it could be a few decades before it overtakes Memphis.
Using the only data source I can find for recent UAs, here are the UA's absolute growth numbers through 2016 (from a 2010 base).
Raleigh: +245,109
Nashville +135,413
Jacksonville +104.781
Richmond +76,444
Louisville +62,454
Memphis +49,939
I'm thinking that the order looks like this in by 2020 and their change in rank from 2016:
Raleigh (+1)
Jacksonville (-1)
Nashville (+1)
Memphis (-1)
Richmond (+1)
Louisville (-1)
Before 2030, Nashville will likely jump Jacksonville but none of the bottom three are showing the sort of growth that would change their order from the 2020 projection.
Tier 2 ($100 billion-plus)
Charlotte, Tampa, Fort Worth, Orlando, Austin, Nashville, San Antonio
Tier 3 ($64-80 billion)
New Orleans, Raleigh, Richmond, Oklahoma City, Memphis, Louisville, Jacksonville, Norfolk, Birmingham
Tier 4 (only cities between $45-64 billion)
Tulsa, Baton Rouge
Tier 5 ($30-45 billion)
Durham, Greensboro, Little Rock, Knoxville, Columbia, Greenville, Charleston
.........
Because side isn't everything and can be misleading; because high growth isn't everything and can be misleading, I really believe that grouping cities by economic size is the best way to "tier" cities. I didnt list the cities in the order I think they are actually in, so I'll do so here:
- Tier 1 is that exact order. HUGE gap to Tier 2...
- Tier 2 in order: Charlotte, Tampa, Orlando, Austin, Nashville, San Antonio, Fort Worth...Its becoming increasingly difficult to argue against Charlotte at the #5 spot. There likely will never be another entry into Tier 1 but Charlotte is putting a grip on the "next best" city in the South title. I believe Orlando is gaining on Tampa but it isn't quite there yet--Tampa is more established and Orlando has some work to do to overtake it. Austin is flying up the list. I'd still rank it behind the Florida cities but it isn't far behind...
The bottom three Tier 2 cities could be argued for a seperate tier or borderline Tier 3. Nashville is another city with a huge momentum. Its not as voluminous as the cities ahead of it, but i do think its seperated itself from Tier 3 for the most part. There is little to no seperation between SA and FW but i do think Nashville and Austin have lapped them...
- Tier 3 in order: New Orleans, Richmond, Raleigh, Louisvillle, Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Norfolk, Memphis, Birmingham...
There is an argument for New Orleans ahead of S.A. and FW to round out the Top 10 Cities of the South, but that argument doesn't hold up with all things considered. It is at the very top of Tier 3, but Richmond and Raleigh are gaining on it (both are probably a decade away at least). Richmond and Raleigh could be interchangeable, but Richmond is more established and because of that, Raleigh still has work to do to definitively lap Richmond. And while Richmond isn't growing at boomtown, it is growing just fine. There is no reason to positively say Raleigh has or will pass Richmond when things other than population growth are taken into account...
At any rate, both Raleigh and Richmond have passed Louisville in most conceivable metrics. Jacksonville is hot on Louisville as well. OKC/Nfk/Mem/Bham are all pretty interchangeable and probably the tightest cluster of cities on the board. No matter who is last on the board, there is a fairly significant gap from Tier 3 to Tier 4...
-Tulsa and Baton Rouge in that order. Tulsa has momentum but is still a step behind in state rival OKC, much less the trifecta of Memphis, Norfolk, Birmingham..
- Tier 5 in order: Charleston, Greenville, Knoxville, Greensboro, Durham, Columbia, Little Rock...
Charleston has by far the greatest surge but is a decade away at minimum of reaching that next group. Greenville is right behind it, Knoxville behind it. The bottom four cities are pretty interchangeable but I personally see Little Rock bringing up the rear. There is very little, besides economic weight, that separates Little Rock from a lower tier of cities. Every other city in this group has a noticeably more rounded culture than LR...
Because side isn't everything and can be misleading; because high growth isn't everything and can be misleading, I really believe that grouping cities by economic size is the best way to "tier" cities. I didnt list the cities in the order I think they are actually in, so I'll do so here:
- Tier 1 is that exact order. HUGE gap to Tier 2...
- Tier 2 in order: Charlotte, Tampa, Orlando, Austin, Nashville, San Antonio, Fort Worth...Its becoming increasingly difficult to argue against Charlotte at the #5 spot. There likely will never be another entry into Tier 1 but Charlotte is putting a grip on the "next best" city in the South title. I believe Orlando is gaining on Tampa but it isn't quite there yet--Tampa is more established and Orlando has some work to do to overtake it. Austin is flying up the list. I'd still rank it behind the Florida cities but it isn't far behind...
The bottom three Tier 2 cities could be argued for a seperate tier or borderline Tier 3. Nashville is another city with a huge momentum. Its not as voluminous as the cities ahead of it, but i do think its seperated itself from Tier 3 for the most part. There is little to no seperation between SA and FW but i do think Nashville and Austin have lapped them...
- Tier 3 in order: New Orleans, Richmond, Raleigh, Louisvillle, Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Norfolk, Memphis, Birmingham...
There is an argument for New Orleans ahead of S.A. and FW to round out the Top 10 Cities of the South, but that argument doesn't hold up with all things considered. It is at the very top of Tier 3, but Richmond and Raleigh are gaining on it (both are probably a decade away at least). Richmond and Raleigh could be interchangeable, but Richmond is more established and because of that, Raleigh still has work to do to definitively lap Richmond. And while Richmond isn't growing at boomtown, it is growing just fine. There is no reason to positively say Raleigh has or will pass Richmond when things other than population growth are taken into account...
At any rate, both Raleigh and Richmond have passed Louisville in most conceivable metrics. Jacksonville is hot on Louisville as well. OKC/Nfk/Mem/Bham are all pretty interchangeable and probably the tightest cluster of cities on the board. No matter who is last on the board, there is a fairly significant gap from Tier 3 to Tier 4...
-Tulsa and Baton Rouge in that order. Tulsa has momentum but is still a step behind in state rival OKC, much less the trifecta of Memphis, Norfolk, Birmingham..
- Tier 5 in order: Charleston, Greenville, Knoxville, Greensboro, Durham, Columbia, Little Rock...
Charleston has by far the greatest surge but is a decade away at minimum of reaching that next group. Greenville is right behind it, Knoxville behind it. The bottom four cities are pretty interchangeable but I personally see Little Rock bringing up the rear. There is very little, besides economic weight, that separates Little Rock from a lower tier of cities. Every other city in this group has a noticeably more rounded culture than LR...
What does that mean? I feel LR is underrated overall.
Because side isn't everything and can be misleading; because high growth isn't everything and can be misleading, I really believe that grouping cities by economic size is the best way to "tier" cities. I didnt list the cities in the order I think they are actually in, so I'll do so here:
- Tier 1 is that exact order. HUGE gap to Tier 2...
- Tier 2 in order: Charlotte, Tampa, Orlando, Austin, Nashville, San Antonio, Fort Worth...Its becoming increasingly difficult to argue against Charlotte at the #5 spot. There likely will never be another entry into Tier 1 but Charlotte is putting a grip on the "next best" city in the South title. I believe Orlando is gaining on Tampa but it isn't quite there yet--Tampa is more established and Orlando has some work to do to overtake it. Austin is flying up the list. I'd still rank it behind the Florida cities but it isn't far behind...
The bottom three Tier 2 cities could be argued for a seperate tier or borderline Tier 3. Nashville is another city with a huge momentum. Its not as voluminous as the cities ahead of it, but i do think its seperated itself from Tier 3 for the most part. There is little to no seperation between SA and FW but i do think Nashville and Austin have lapped them...
- Tier 3 in order: New Orleans, Richmond, Raleigh, Louisvillle, Jacksonville, Oklahoma City, Norfolk, Memphis, Birmingham...
There is an argument for New Orleans ahead of S.A. and FW to round out the Top 10 Cities of the South, but that argument doesn't hold up with all things considered. It is at the very top of Tier 3, but Richmond and Raleigh are gaining on it (both are probably a decade away at least). Richmond and Raleigh could be interchangeable, but Richmond is more established and because of that, Raleigh still has work to do to definitively lap Richmond. And while Richmond isn't growing at boomtown, it is growing just fine. There is no reason to positively say Raleigh has or will pass Richmond when things other than population growth are taken into account...
At any rate, both Raleigh and Richmond have passed Louisville in most conceivable metrics. Jacksonville is hot on Louisville as well. OKC/Nfk/Mem/Bham are all pretty interchangeable and probably the tightest cluster of cities on the board. No matter who is last on the board, there is a fairly significant gap from Tier 3 to Tier 4...
-Tulsa and Baton Rouge in that order. Tulsa has momentum but is still a step behind in state rival OKC, much less the trifecta of Memphis, Norfolk, Birmingham..
- Tier 5 in order: Charleston, Greenville, Knoxville, Greensboro, Durham, Columbia, Little Rock...
Charleston has by far the greatest surge but is a decade away at minimum of reaching that next group. Greenville is right behind it, Knoxville behind it. The bottom four cities are pretty interchangeable but I personally see Little Rock bringing up the rear. There is very little, besides economic weight, that separates Little Rock from a lower tier of cities. Every other city in this group has a noticeably more rounded culture than LR...
Are you ranking the cities by economy/GDP here? Because if so, I definitely know the order for Tier 5 is off.
-Tulsa and Baton Rouge in that order. Tulsa has momentum but is still a step behind in state rival OKC, much less the trifecta of Memphis, Norfolk, Birmingham..
- Tier 5 in order: Charleston, Greenville, Knoxville, Greensboro, Durham, Columbia, Little Rock...
Charleston has by far the greatest surge but is a decade away at minimum of reaching that next group. Greenville is right behind it, Knoxville behind it. The bottom four cities are pretty interchangeable but I personally see Little Rock bringing up the rear. There is very little, besides economic weight, that separates Little Rock from a lower tier of cities. Every other city in this group has a noticeably more rounded culture than LR...
From a economic stand point not saying which tier it needs to be in but I would put charleston sc over baton Rouge . Going on population then you are right
From a economic stand point not saying which tier it needs to be in but I would put charleston sc over baton Rouge . Going on population then you are right
Baton Rouge bests Charleston both economically and in terms of population; Baton Rouge's GDP is $53.7B and Charleston's is $36.4B (but, to its credit, Charleston has slightly higher per capita and median household income levels). Of course Charleston has the momentum and higher growth rates but Baton Rouge has the larger economy and metro area as of now. Matter of fact, Baton Rouge beats nearly all of its peers in terms of GDP.
Baltimore isn't southern, but even if it were, it should be grouped with DC (just like Forth Worth should be with Dallas, Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach should be with Miami, etc.), in which case it would be the #1 city in the #1 group.
Baltimore isn't southern, but even if it were, it should be grouped with DC (just like Forth Worth should be with Dallas, Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach should be with Miami, etc.), in which case it would be the #1 city in the #1 group.
Washington would instantly be in a class all to itself. As in:
Tier 1
Washington DC
Tier 2
ATL
Mia
Hou
Dal
I'm from ATL but I've seen some Southern posters who kick Miami and the Texas cities out of the South so that ATL can hold the top spot. Kind of dumb to me but whatever. If Baltimore were included it would be last in tier 2 or first in tier 3. Adding the Southern Mid-Atlantic cities messes with a Southerner's civic pride it seems, lol.
Baltimore isn't southern, but even if it were, it should be grouped with DC (just like Forth Worth should be with Dallas, Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach should be with Miami, etc.), in which case it would be the #1 city in the #1 group.
I disagree. Baltimore has its own MSA; the same isn't true of Ft. Worth and Ft. Lauderdale. That's why cities like Greenville, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, etc. have been categorized on their own in this thread although they are part of multinodal CSAs, like Baltimore/DC.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
