[Cambium]

I want to make an early note that while west of Appalacians can see over a foot of snow, there are high chances the coast of NJ, NY, CT see snow falling because of the dynamics with this system. Cloud tops are -90C! No accuulations of course..

Its going to start raining ahead of the cold front on Saturday night/Sunday, then rain and winds increase as we move into Monday. I'm thinking after Monday evening things go downhill...

What is concerning me is that, this is not just a hurricane coming up the coast...it will "transition" into an extra Tropical system because it will merge with the cold front and trough. That will make it even more dynamic. Its like adding more fuel to it.

I'll have updates tomorrow.

[Hopes]

Originally Posted by Off-beat

This storm is going to be incredibly weak, in the extremely rare chance that it comes anywhere near CT. Hardly any rain or wind, even.

Strength pertains to wind, not rain. A weak storm can move so slowly that it continually drops water in one place, causing serious inland flooding.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I want to make an early note that while west of Appalacians can see over a foot of snow, there are high chances the coast of NJ, NY, CT see snow falling because of the dynamics with this system. Cloud tops are -90C! No accuulations of course..

Its going to start raining ahead of the cold front on Saturday night/Sunday, then rain and winds increase as we move into Monday. I'm thinking after Monday evening things go downhill...

What is concerning me is that, this is not just a hurricane coming up the coast...it will "transition" into an extra Tropical system because it will merge with the cold front and trough. That will make it even more dynamic. Its like adding more fuel to it.

I'll have updates tomorrow.

One more ominous excerpt...this one from the NWS Buffalo narrative:

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INFINITE SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENTLY EVOLVING
PATTERN...IN GENERAL IT SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE AN
IMPRESSIVE-TO-EXTREME TROPICAL-TO-EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE THAT
WILL HAVE PAPERS WRITTEN ABOUT IT IN YEARS TO COME.

[Cambium]

HPC showing it stalling near Rhode Island before entering CT. This is my total concern. A storm setup like this does not just make a left turn and move, its getting absorbed by the trough so its going to take time to grab it. That could mean Very heavy Rain for hours and hours.

As far as winds, I'm making a call here saying the coast see's less than 70mph wind gusts and inland less than 55mph.

[nei]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Unfortunetly this may happen..

c'mon, deep inside, you know you want this to happen. You're excited, right?

xkcd: Disaster Voyeurism (let your cursor sit on the middle of the graphic and read the comment)

The Euro continues to show it with a 939mb Low over NYC. This would be another historic event for the entire Northeast and New England.

I assume the pressure forecast isn't that extreme anymore?

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Mike 75

One good thing is that most of the leaves are already off the trees (at least around me). Getting the feeling that the worst of this will be along the coast, mostly due to storm surge and the high tides.

And the fact that the leaves are NOT all off the trees along the coast (at least AFAIK and can see, from New Haven down through NJ).

Originally Posted by rajmelk

Fairly interesting comment in the NWS Taunton narrative about Sandy--

"BUT AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO THE MAJORITY OF SOLNS...THE STORM IS
TAKING ON A HISTORICAL PRECEDENT COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF
OTHER POST-TROPICAL SYSTEMS DURING THE AUTUMN MONTHS."

Global Warming?

[Mixum]

so what are the odds of sandy happening?

also going to salem mass on sunday.... am i screwed?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Mixum

so what are the odds of sandy happening?

also going to salem mass on sunday.... am i screwed?

Your fine with an umbrella Sunday.

I think the pressure just dropped to 956 which would mean Sandy is stronger than models start it out as. South Florida need to heads up. Warning out for them.

Without boring you all, the players on the map are just incredible to see take place. Tony out in the Atlantic is preventing Sandy from going OTS now and Tony is helping the blocking up north which is slowing down the entire pattern.

Keep the posts coming. Thanks!

[Cambium]

Im sorry if Im at fault for all this. I believe end of September I said after October 25th things get interesting.

[Cambium]

Kbox:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product....&highlight=off

There is greater weight towards scenarios of post-tropical sandy making a
close pass /strong winds and high seas possibly leading to coastal
flooding and isolated power outages/... Or a direct hit/hurricane force winds...and with foliated trees...resulting in downed trees and widespread power outages...high seas and storm surge resulting
in significant beach erosion and coastal flooding...especially
during periods of high tide...some of which could be
astronomically high... And finally heavy rains resulting in interior flooding/.