[markfromct]

Originally Posted by jp03

Not to stir the pot, but Once again, these maps for Long term prove dead wrong. Why do people even bother posting em? I swear they are wrong more than right, a coin toss would suffice better.

I agree that you have to take them with a grain of salt. It was the interpretation of a professional Meteorologist though.

[Mixum]

So the thought is no big storms this winter?

[Cambium]

My my.. tough thing about rain and 30s in winter is slight changes will mean this..

Albany says 2-4" of snow in Litchfield with 4-6" possible as well Sunday. Everything trending colder. Don't worry, this is still majority rain event but heads up higher elevations

Winter Storm Graphics

[jp03]

Originally Posted by markfromct

I agree that you have to take them with a grain of salt. It was the interpretation of a professional Meteorologist though.

Agree..just seems its always off. Long term forecasting has such a long way to go..

[jp03]

Originally Posted by markfromct

I agree that you have to take them with a grain of salt. It was the interpretation of a professional Meteorologist though.

Agree..just seems its always off. Long term forecasting has such a long way to go..

Mid term 3-10 day is getting better. After 10 I dont know why they bother.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Clippers & coastals can still happen but wont linger around without that NAO going negative (blocking). Doesn't mean we cant get a foot of snow in a week time though. Sub tropical Jet stream very active and streaming moisture from Pacific and tapping into the Gulf as well.




You just have to know what and how to read them. Did you see the next update after that? The one you quoted was not to be believed. It was a bad run. It didn't fit the current setup and pattern. Here's what it showed on the next update. It's nice to see the future before it happens but its more than looking at a map. You have to know how to interpret them.

Ok , but since 2 runs showed two different things, one run shows warmer and one colder, one could say they cornered the market. One of em was going to be right. That's not a forecast, albeit it is fun to look at.

[andthentherewere3]

When is the rain likely to start tomorrow? As usual I am seeing all sorts of different forecasts.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by jp03

Ok , but since 2 runs showed two different things, one run shows warmer and one colder, one could say they cornered the market. One of em was going to be right. That's not a forecast, albeit it is fun to look at.

Let me help you understand better. What you replied to was the Euro "weeklies". That means it only comes out once a week. You never see me posting those updates because of that reason and number 2 anything past 2 weeks is going to change. That one particular run WAS NOTsupported by anything so that means its like it never happened. I guess you haven't been following my posts touting about this cold coming this week.

So answer me this... How do I see these storms and cold air coming 2 weeks out? Its about learning how to read something. One bad result will throw you off. The euro which usually has a warm bias had a bad result that week. What that means is the future of this cold air was being shown many many many times over with the daily Euro and the gfs from 2 weeks out.

I hope that helps because its not about looking at just what's warm and cold. Its about understanding the pattern and why it shows it. Its amazing how far we come and its so much fun seeing things weeks before.

[Cambium]

Latest temp graph from the GFS for BDL. Check out the 32 degree line and how far below it stays during the day and night Tuesday through Sunday.

Upton for mid week

"HIGH TEMPS COULD BE FRIGID AND STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES FOR A DAY OR TWO"

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Let me help you understand better. What you replied to was the Euro "weeklies". That means it only comes out once a week. You never see me posting those updates because of that reason and number 2 anything past 2 weeks is going to change. That one particular run WAS NOTsupported by anything so that means its like it never happened. I guess you haven't been following my posts touting about this cold coming this week.

So answer me this... How do I see these storms and cold air coming 2 weeks out? Its about learning how to read something. One bad result will throw you off. The euro which usually has a warm bias had a bad result that week. What that means is the future of this cold air was being shown many many many times over with the daily Euro and the gfs from 2 weeks out.

I hope that helps because its not about looking at just what's warm and cold. Its about understanding the pattern and why it shows it. Its amazing how far we come and its so much fun seeing things weeks before.

I understand your point about properly reading long term models and agree. Long term model runs have to be used properly to be effective. Also, looking at long term storm potential has to be taken with the understanding things will change. I hate when some bozo at work watching some weather caster on TV talk about a potential storm 10 days out will start hyping a storm. Then 5 days out its gone and the "FORECASTERS" blew it.

If weatherman stuck to 3 days and in to forecast only , the success rate would be strikingly high. Short term forecasting has become amazingly accurate . That does not mean we cant enjoy looking into the future too. I love looking at the models. As long as we understand its not going to be accurate till 3 or so days out.