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Old 12-29-2014, 12:49 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,529 posts, read 75,355,132 times
Reputation: 16626

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1st off, the best line I've read in a long time this morning... Some models were showing snow tomorrow and I ignored it! Proud of myself! Check out what NWS Philly says..

Basically the models are having a hard time 4-5 days out since fall with the upper level Jet stream flow. And that's why they only realized its not going to snow tomorrow until 2-3 days before. LOL. Euro wasn't showing snow. Points for Euro again.

Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

AS FOR THE DETAILS, THE MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME ON
KEYING ON THE CORRECT 500MB PATTERN MUCH MORE THAN 4 TO 5 DAYS IN
ADVANCE SINCE AUTUMN. GETTING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THESE DIFFERENCES
HAVE NOT BEEN SOLIDIFIED MUCH BEFORE 72 HOURS.

AS A RECENT EXAMPLE THE NON-ECMWF MODELS DID NOT LOSE THEIR SNOWIER TUESDAY SOLUTION FOR OUR CWA UNTIL THE 12Z RUN SATURDAY AND IN THE NAM`S CASE NOT UNTIL
YESTERDAY.
Speaking of Euro... excited to show this...

Latest Update for Sunday 7pm Jan 4th showing a clipper type storm coming down the chute. Energy entering Montana here. Cool and clear for us at this point.



By Tuesday afternoon (next week) the clipper is over the Great Lakes as a 1004mb low producing a snowstorm for Upper Midwest. Keep an eye on that crucial 540 dotted blue line (rain/snow line). As moisture comes in we are still in the cold sector. So it would be snowing Tuesday evening.



By Wednesday morning, BOOM. 988mb low over southern Maine, everyone in the cold and cold enough for snow. Snowstorm New England Tuesday evening to Wed evening. Very cold here and storm basically strengthens over New England as it moves across.



Who wants this solution to be right? COME ON EURO!

but this shows how a storm from Gulf cutting to Great Lakes pushes warm air up as opposed to this scenario where the front stays "south" of us keeping the cold air in place.

 
Old 12-29-2014, 01:05 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,529 posts, read 75,355,132 times
Reputation: 16626
3pm our time.. Bridgeport once again mid 40s. Hartford 39°. With the sun it still feels like spring!

Feels like 80s central Florida southwards & sub zero Nebraska northwards. Now that's winter! Not 30s or 40s!

Temps on left, feels like on right.

 
Old 12-29-2014, 02:55 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,302 posts, read 18,895,695 times
Reputation: 5131
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Yup, keep us posted.
Seems NWS has scaled it back a few degrees, mostly made it Sunday, not Saturday and is back to saying "rain and snow". I guess time will tell.......
 
Old 12-30-2014, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,529 posts, read 75,355,132 times
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Water Temp in New Haven, CT Harbor/Long Island Sound is a full 5° warmer this year than last year same time.

Min Temp Avg this month for Bridgeport is warmest on record 44.1°.

Max Avg is 11th warmest 45.7°.

Avg Temp is holding at 6th warmest 39.9.

2 days left of data.


Station Home Page - NOAA Tides & Currents

 
Old 12-30-2014, 11:15 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,529 posts, read 75,355,132 times
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1pmEST temps & 500mb Heights.

585 Height over Florida. 545 over Nevada from CutOff.

Colorful gradients today

70s/80s in Florida, 40s/50s in Gulf States. 30s here, just normal..
Teens in Texas and single digits in Plains is well below normal. 20-30 below. Single digits during the day. I want!

Can you find the Polar Jet Stream? I see 2 fronts near Florida. lol
Cloudy day in Orlando and Witchita, Sunny in Miami & Little Rock.


 
Old 12-30-2014, 12:38 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,302 posts, read 18,895,695 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Water Temp in New Haven, CT Harbor/Long Island Sound is a full 5° warmer this year than last year same time.

Min Temp Avg this month for Bridgeport is warmest on record 44.1°.

Max Avg is 11th warmest 45.7°.

Avg Temp is holding at 6th warmest 39.9.

2 days left of data.


Station Home Page - NOAA Tides & Currents
I think you mean 34.1 avg min, not 44.1, then the average of 39 vs the avg high makes sense.

But see, its those nightitime lows that are truly histoically high all the time, not the total temperaturere.....
 
Old 12-30-2014, 12:57 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,529 posts, read 75,355,132 times
Reputation: 16626
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
I think you mean 34.1 avg min, not 44.1, then the average of 39 vs the avg high makes sense.

But see, its those nightitime lows that are truly histoically high all the time, not the total temperaturere.....
Yes, 34.1. Thanks! What would I do without you. Lol

Which sounds even surprising. 34 sounds low to be warmest on record for the coast but it is.

2001, 2006, 2011, 2012, 2014 are in top 7 warmest average low. I'll make a graph soon.

On a more positive note... Didn't pass freezing today and I was outside all day in just a sweatshirt and didn't even know. Finally!! Felt so good! Needs to be colder though.
 
Old 12-30-2014, 01:07 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,529 posts, read 75,355,132 times
Reputation: 16626
So how long can we go without snow?

Flurries around today. Air so dry don't expect it.

Meanwhile Las Vegas getting a rare snowfall.
Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas all getting snow.

 
Old 12-30-2014, 01:42 PM
 
10,007 posts, read 11,166,459 times
Reputation: 6303
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
So how long can we go without snow?

Flurries around today. Air so dry don't expect it.

Meanwhile Las Vegas getting a rare snowfall.
Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas all getting snow.
January pattern looks below normal temps here. Pattern has changed and changed quickly. However, we need coastal development! Another Appalachian runner this weekend although some snow is possible inland if a secondary low forms off coast. .
 
Old 12-30-2014, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Storrs, CT
830 posts, read 685,082 times
Reputation: 497
Blog post from accuweather:

Weekend Winter Storm Looms for Central, Eastern US





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