[Cambium]

Nobody say a word.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php?id=OKX

[Mr_250]

I like the minor impact...come on keep pushing south!!

[Cambium]

Check out the moon guys

[Cambium]

NAM model says Major impact will have to be for more areas.... lol..

It usually has a wet bias but I've seen it right in the past. Not saying this will be but nobody knows.

15 inches for BDR?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model...s_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[Cambium]

Canadian model says buckle up



No thread. No jinx.

[beer belly]

Times like this I wish I had a bigger pup. Looks like I'll be shoveling a few times during this storm.

[Cambium]

Snowing in DC already


It's coming! TONS of moisture. New coastal storm developing as I type.





Extreme impacts for Greenwich




Winter Storm Warnings for Southern CT




Widespread 12"+





No Thread. No Jinx.

[Cambium]

They raised totals because.........

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
453 AM EST Sun Jan 31 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A major winter storm will begin to impact the Tri-State Region
tonight. The storm will continue into Monday night, with
lingering effects lasting into Tuesday night.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A strong upr low can be seen on water vapor near the IL/IN
border this mrng. A solid arc of mid to high clouds were
overspreading the area ahead of the approaching sys. Increasing
clouds will therefore be the theme today, with perhaps some lgt
snow or flurries before dark across the swrn third of the cwa.
The NBM was followed with the typical adjustments for temps.

The fcst continues to trend snowier for much of the fcst area.

The modeling still leaves a good amount of uncertainty wrt
mixing for the ern half to third of the area. The NAM and GFS,
including the 6Z NAM, are essentially the cold models. The GFS
warmed the bl significantly during the aftn across LI, which
seemed unrealistic given the wind direction except for close to
the immediate south shore and Twin Forks. It stayed cold aloft.
The 00Z NAM kept the bl cold, but surged enough warm air aloft
to produce some mixing with sleet for much of LI by aftn. The
6Z run backed off on this. Both models warm things aloft briefly
aft 00Z Tue, but by then most of the damage will have been done.
The ECMWF came in with a warm soln, which would result in
extensive mixing even potentially to NYC by aftn. Based on the
good agreement between the NAM and GFS, and the good track
record of the NAM, the fcst leans on the American models. It is
a lean however and not a full buy in at this point.

Snowfall amounts have been increased for almost the entire
area. Despite the fact that we are forecasting up to 18 inches of snow, these
numbers are conservative if you trust the NAM. The NAM suggests
that 2 ft is reasonable for this event where the heaviest band
sets up and where it remains mostly snow. Even LI is not out of
the woods for getting these max amounts if the GFS/NAM are
indeed correct with the temp profiles.

Warnings have been issued for all but the Twin Forks, where the
watch has been maintained. This is due to the mixing/rain
potential.

High winds will also impact the area with the storm. The peak
will be Mon and Mon eve. Gusts to around 60 mph still seem
likely, especially across the ern LI. Blizzard like conditions
can be expected with this storm, especially those areas near the
coast that remain all snow. An upgrade to a blizzard warning is
not out of the question for portions of the area. Those areas
most likely to go blizzard would be cstl CT, NYC, and wrn LI.

After the main snow band lifts north of the area Mon ngt, there
could be additional bands, albeit not as heavy, on the backside
of the sys right thru Tue. The upr low itself passes thru Tue
ngt, allowing for things to dry up by Wed mrng.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by BobNJ1960

To avoid bad roads, what time does a friend who lives near Plainfield, NJ need to be home by Sunday? She will be with me in Milford in a few hours, staying overnight.

I figured I'd ask my favorite weather forecaster. No one matches your knowledge I can talk to.

Originally Posted by Cambium

Thanks. lol. It's gonna start in Plainfield obviously before CT so she should leave Sunday afternoon to be safe. Before 3-4pm

I sent you a PM. I HOPE YOU GET IT. LEAVE THIS MORNING! That's weather details for you. Already snowing in Maryland. It should be light to start but to be "safe" I would leave this morning not this afternoon.


I'm seeing reports of 3" on the ground in Northern Virginia already

[Solstodur]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Check out the moon guys

Hell yeah funny I noticed that too yesterday, it looked bigger than normal. Kinda eerie, but a nice ambiance for winter.

Keeps trending better and better for this upcoming storm... worried about the warmth & sleet but at least we're going to have a return to snow.

Reason I am worried about sleet as there seems to be some variation in the warm pushes of the modelling, and its quite high up at 700mb...

Hey, gotta start talking about the sleet early, you know a sleet post a day keeps the pinging away