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Old 12-01-2019, 06:29 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,298 posts, read 18,888,129 times
Reputation: 5126

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
I just looked at 5 short range Hi-Resolution models regarding tomorrow's start time for snow for SWCT. (I'm not getting into other area, just WAY TO COMPLEX).


One has it starting after 6pm and ends after 2am (RGEM)
One says before lunch and brings 6-8" down to NJ as well, ends by 7am Tues (NAM3km)
One says after 7pm but doesn't snow much, light and scattered till 5am (WRF2)
One days it's only heavy a burst in the afternoon and light the rest of time. (HRDPS)
NWS says rain changes to snow at 12pm and ends at 11am.

So glad I don't forecast I'd get all the hate mail. But I guess its the same headache as reading the "bust" posts.

it's all going to depend on where that low forms, how fast it moves, where it moves, how cold it gets, how fast the temps drop.



Tomorrows commute could become horrible.

This is sounding like the scenario from last year's surprise November storm. Many school districts bet on it starting later and/or it being less than it was and got burned (granted more so in NY than CT where except in Greenwich and Stamford which did early dismiss it did mostly start after school...I got burned because I live to the west and drove right into it), I know of a private school in NY that did not close early that has kids bussed (and parents picking up) from up to 40 miles away and lots of kids got stuck on buses all night or their parents couldn't get to them and they were stuck at the school all night.

I noticed a lot of districts in NJ and the Hudson Valley beyond 287 are closed already for tomorrow (even many NJ districts near NYC are early dismissing) but haven't seen any school in any part of CT do anything yet, this should be interesting.... (before you ask how I know all this so fast, the News 12 and WTNH websites are very useful for this).

Quote:
Originally Posted by karen_in_nh_2012 View Post
I had already planned to work at home tomorrow anyway (most of my students come back late from Thanksgiving break so attendance is always crappy the Monday after)

Yeah, that's why I think given all the uncertainty districts should be a little quicker to close than they usually might. Attendance will already be low and maybe some students and teachers who went out of town got delayed and won't be there anyway.

 
Old 12-01-2019, 07:37 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Read his thread. Mentions 11/15/18.

If u can work from home. Do it

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1201324676259155969
 
Old 12-01-2019, 07:42 PM
 
3,350 posts, read 4,168,858 times
Reputation: 1946
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Read his thread. Mentions 11/15/18.

If u can work from home. Do it

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1201324676259155969
Eh - This is the Hill I’m going to die on. Nothing to see here.
 
Old 12-01-2019, 08:00 PM
 
Location: Woburn, MA / W. Hartford, CT
6,129 posts, read 5,098,910 times
Reputation: 4112
No changeover here NW of Boston near the Burlington/Woburn line. 5" and coming down! And they're saying that tomorrow evening's event could be worse...
 
Old 12-01-2019, 08:09 PM
 
3,350 posts, read 4,168,858 times
Reputation: 1946
Quote:
Originally Posted by htfdcolt View Post
No changeover here NW of Boston near the Burlington/Woburn line. 5" and coming down! And they're saying that tomorrow evening's event could be worse...
That’s an interesting pivot - this wasn’t originally hypothesized as two discrete systems.
 
Old 12-01-2019, 08:12 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by htfdcolt View Post
No changeover here NW of Boston near the Burlington/Woburn line. 5" and coming down! And they're saying that tomorrow evening's event could be worse...
I saw Colebrook, CT got 4". Check it out though...

10-12" of snow has fallen around Albany and 6-9" in areas of MA already!

5-6" in northern Hartford County.

1/4" ice in Danbury

 
Old 12-01-2019, 08:13 PM
 
2,941 posts, read 1,785,035 times
Reputation: 2274
Crossing fingers for an on time departure from white plains at 7am! ha ha
 
Old 12-01-2019, 08:15 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
https://twitter.com/BruceDePrest/sta...38809289449472
 
Old 12-01-2019, 08:25 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Where will that Low form?
Where will it go?
How fast will it move?
Where will the heavy snow axis be?


All small details which makes or breaks a forecast.


Updated Snowfall total forecast.... Note NJ north of Philly in the 6-8" now. Will CT get gipped??


https://www.weather.gov/images/erh/gis/NE_Snow.png


 
Old 12-01-2019, 08:50 PM
 
6,588 posts, read 4,975,313 times
Reputation: 8041
Pretty sure we've lost depth once the sleet started. It's warmed up a lot too - 32 degrees now
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